-PDF Download- Uncertainty Threat And International Security EBOOK

Uncertainty, Threat, and International Security

Author: Ivan Savic

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2017-04-21

Total Pages: 180

ISBN-13: 131705038X

The rise of China is changing the strategic landscape globally and regionally. How states respond to potential threats posed by this new power arrangement will be crucial to international relations for the coming decades. This book builds on existing realist and rationalist concepts of balancing, bandwagoning, commitment problems, and asymmetric information to craft explanations about how states respond when faced with potential threats. Specifically, the book explores the role different types of uncertainty play in potential balancing situations. Particular focus is given to the nature of the rising state’s actions, the balance of forces, and the value of delay. These concepts are analysed and illustrated through a series of case studies on Europe in the 1930s as well as the present-day Southeast Asia, looking at great powers such as Britain and France, but also a wide range of smaller powers including Poland, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

War and Chance

Author: Jeffrey A. Friedman

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 0190938021

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

"Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in amanner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices." (éd.).

A strong Britain in an age of uncertainty

Author: Great Britain: Cabinet Office

Publisher: The Stationery Office

Published: 2010-10-18

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 9780101795326

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The national security strategy of the United Kingdom is to use all national capabilities to build Britain's prosperity, extend the country's influence in the world and strengthen security. The National Security Council ensures a strategic and co-ordinated approach across the whole of Government to the risks and opportunities the country faces. Parts 1 and 2 of this document outline the Government's analysis of the strategic global context and give an assessment of the UK's place in the world. They also set out the core objectives of the strategy: (i) ensuring a secure and resilient UK by protecting the country from all major risks that can affect us directly, and (ii) shaping a stable world - actions beyond the UK to reduce specific risks to the country or our direct interests overseas. Part 3 identifies and analyses the key security risks the country is likely to face in the future. The National Security Council has prioritised the risks and the current highest priority are: international terrorism; cyber attack; international military crises; and major accidents or natural hazards. Part 4 describes the ways in which the strategy to prevent and mitigate the specific risks will be achieved. The detailed means to achieve these ends will be set out in the Strategic Defence and Security Review (Cm. 7948, ISBN 9780101794824), due to publish on 19 October 2010.

Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Uncertainty in Global Politics

Author: Anastasia Shesterinina

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2023-11-16

Total Pages: 305

ISBN-13: 1003823831

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This book engages in a constructive, practical debate on the nature and effects of uncertainty in global politics. International contributors explore the processes associated with different forms of uncertainty in the context of environmental issues, diplomacy and international negotiations, and conflict and security. From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 1997 and 2008 financial crises to the Arab Uprisings and the European migrant crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, assessments of many events with lasting consequences on the global order have begun with: “why didn’t we see this coming?” There is much to learn from how phenomena that affect the global order generate uncertainty and what effects such uncertainty has on actors and issues. Presenting perspectives from all corners of the discipline and emerging and established scholars the book provides an up-to-date overview of the state of the literature; a concise yet conceptually rich theoretical framework; a mix of regional and global contemporary issues; process-oriented empirical evidence and methodological tools to assess different forms of uncertainty and propose practical solutions to addressing uncertainty in diverse contexts. The book will be of interest to scholars of global politics, international security, global environmental politics, international organizations and institutions, social movements, and conflict studies.

Reducing Uncertainty

Author: Thomas Fingar

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2011-07-20

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 080477594X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.

The growth of uncertainty after the end of the Cold War and its impact on the security environment of states

Author: Natalie Züfle

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2011-10-19

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 3656033013

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Master's Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Politics - Topic: Peace and Conflict, Security, grade: 2,1, Free University of Berlin (Center for Global Politics), course: International Relations Online, language: English, abstract: Uncertainty has grown considerably after the end of the Cold War. In the place of one big threat a plenitude of many “smaller” and more incalculable risks superseded. New dangers have emerged or become more salient as compared to former times (like environmental issues, IT problems, or economic crises), while “old” ones have not entirely vanished. The risks emanating from WMDs or the threat of wars remain existent, albeit sometimes in an altered form. Several factors have contributed to the alteration of the threat and risk pattern: in the main, the transition to a multipolar world order, the processes of globalization, and last but not least the diminishing importance of borders and of the sovereign nation-state as such are decisive. Hence, the vulnerability of civil society has increased considerably, as open societies are more risk-prone. In reaction to these developments, academics and politicians have refined the traditional concept of national security into a broader notion, considering a multitude of aspects affecting the safety of the human being as such. In consequence the classical security architecture is being adapted bit by bit to the conditions of the 21st century. On each level, i.e. the national, regional as well as international layers, diverse mechanisms have been developed – as exemplary illustrated with reference to the transnational danger of terrorism.

Confronting an Uncertain Threat

Author: Rick David Nelson

Publisher: CSIS Reports

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780892066674

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) have become an increasingly diffuse security threat. Although the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands may have represented the epicenter of global terrorism in the past decade, al Qaeda's various regional affiliates are growing in prominence. The past several years also have seen a rise in al Qaeda-inspired plots by small cells or unaffiliated individuals based in the West. This flattening and expansion of al Qaeda's global scope, both physically and virtually, has complicated U.S. and international efforts to combat global terrorism. Counterterrorism professionals work tirelessly to confront existing threats. But the need to focus on today's exigencies, combined with officials' limited resources for alternative and long-range planning, means that governments tend to pursue reactive, rather than anticipatory, policies and strategies vis-à-vis terrorism. Containing, if not defeating, AQAM will require that policymakers and practitioners shape a global environment that is inhospitable to terrorism. Doing this, in turn, necessitates a better understanding of where and how future AQAM threats are likely to emerge. This report seeks to help fill this need for anticipatory knowledge and assist in the development of improved counterterrorism policies and strategy.

Moving Target Defense

Author: Sushil Jajodia

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-08-26

Total Pages: 196

ISBN-13: 1461409772

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Moving Target Defense: Creating Asymmetric Uncertainty for Cyber Threats was developed by a group of leading researchers. It describes the fundamental challenges facing the research community and identifies new promising solution paths. Moving Target Defense which is motivated by the asymmetric costs borne by cyber defenders takes an advantage afforded to attackers and reverses it to advantage defenders. Moving Target Defense is enabled by technical trends in recent years, including virtualization and workload migration on commodity systems, widespread and redundant network connectivity, instruction set and address space layout randomization, just-in-time compilers, among other techniques. However, many challenging research problems remain to be solved, such as the security of virtualization infrastructures, secure and resilient techniques to move systems within a virtualized environment, automatic diversification techniques, automated ways to dynamically change and manage the configurations of systems and networks, quantification of security improvement, potential degradation and more. Moving Target Defense: Creating Asymmetric Uncertainty for Cyber Threats is designed for advanced -level students and researchers focused on computer science, and as a secondary text book or reference. Professionals working in this field will also find this book valuable.

Protean Power

Author: Peter J. Katzenstein

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2018-01-18

Total Pages: 383

ISBN-13: 1108425178

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Inquires into the role of the unexpected in world politics by examining the protean power effects of agile innovation and improvisation.