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Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty

Author: David Geltner

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-02-19

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 1119106451

Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate. It presents simple simulation models built in universal spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel®. These realistically reflect the varying and erratic sources of uncertainty and price dynamics that uniquely characterize real estate. The text covers new analytic procedures that are valuable for existing properties and enable a new, more profitable perspective on the planning, design, operation, and evaluation of large-scale, multi-phase development projects. The book thereby aims to significantly improve valuation and investment decision making. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is presented at 3 levels. First, it introduces and explains the concepts underlying the approach at a basic level accessible to non-technical and non-specialized readers. Its introductory and concluding chapters present the important “big picture” implications of the analysis for economics and valuation and for project design and investment decision making. At a second level, the book presents a framework, a roadmap for the prospective analyst. It describes the practical tools in detail, taking care to go through the elements of the approach step-by-step for clarity and easy reference. The third level includes more technical details and specific models. An Appendix discusses the technical details of real estate price dynamics. Associated web pages provide electronic spreadsheet templates for the models used as examples in the book. Some features of the book include: • Concepts and tools that are simple and accessible to a broad audience of practitioners; • An approach relevant for all development projects; • Complementarity with the author's Commercial Real Estate Analysis & Investments—the most-cited real estate investments textbook on the market. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is for everyone studying or concerned with the implementation of large-scale or multi-phase real estate development projects, as well as property investment and valuation more generally.

Valuation Uncertainty

Author: International Valuation Standards Council

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9780956931382

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Strategic Power Plant Investment Planning Under Fuel and Carbon Price Uncertainty

Author: Ansgar Geiger

Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing

Published: 2014-08-20

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 3866446330

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The profitability of power plant investments depends strongly on uncertain fuel and carbon prices. In this doctoral thesis, we combine fundamental electricity market models with stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate power plant investments under uncertainty. The application of interpolation-based stochastic dynamic programming and approximate dynamic programming allows us to consider a greater variety of stochastic fuel and carbon price scenarios compared to other approaches.

Mortgage Valuation Models

Author: Andrew S. Davidson

Publisher: Financial Management Associati

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 465

ISBN-13: 0199998167

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Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are among the most complex of all financial instruments. Analysis of MBS requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior with the mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices. Over the past 25 years, Andrew Davidson and Alexander Levin have been at the leading edge of MBS valuation and risk analysis. Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty contains a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods that the authors employ in real-world analyses of mortgage-backed securities. Issues such as complexity, borrower options, uncertainty, and model risk play a central role in the authors' approach to the valuation of MBS. The coverage spans the range of mortgage products from loans and TBA (to-be-announced) pass-through securities to subordinate tranches of subprime-mortgage securitizations. With reference to the classical CAPM and APT, the book advocates extending the concept of risk-neutrality to modeling home prices and borrower options, well beyond interest rates. It describes valuation methods for both agency and non-agency MBS including pricing new loans; approaches to prudent risk measurement, ranking, and decomposition; and methods for modeling prepayments and defaults of borrowers. The authors also reveal quantitative causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis and provide insight into the future of the U.S. housing finance system and mortgage modeling as this field continues to evolve. This book will serve as a foundation for the future development of models for mortgage-backed securities.

Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty

Author: David Geltner

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-04-30

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 1119106494

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Adaptive Bidding in Single-Sided Auctions under Uncertainty

Author: Clemens van Dinther

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2007-01-10

Total Pages: 245

ISBN-13: 3764381132

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This is one of the first books on the use of software agents to simulate bidding behavior in electronic auctions. It introduces market theory and computational economics together, and gives an overview on the most common and up-to-date agent-based simulation methods. The book will help the reader learn more about simulations in economics in general and common agent-based methods and tools in particular.

Valuation Uncertainty

Author: Chris Thorne

Publisher:

Published: 2020-05-21

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13:

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The International Valuation Standards require valuation reports to disclose any material uncertainty that may affect the valuation. This Valuers' Briefing explains why this requirement was introduced, what constitutes "valuation uncertainty", when this needs to be mentioned and points that need to be considered when developing an appropriate statement.

Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Author: Donald Dibra

Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand

Published: 2015-04-28

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13: 3734755433

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This work presents the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach when dealing with the economic valuation of projects which are subjected to risks and uncertainties. The Net Present Value of a project is usually used as an investment decision parameter. Using deterministic models to calculate a project’s Net Present Value neglects the risky and uncertain nature of real life projects and consequently leads to useless valuation results. Realistic valuation models need to use probability density distributions for the input parameters and certain probabilities for the occurrence of specific events during the life time of a project in combination with the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach. After a short introduction a brief explanation of the traditional project valuation methods is given. The main focus of this work lies in using the Net Present Value method as a basic valuation tool in conjunction with the Monte Carlo Simulation technique and the Decision Tree Analysis approach to form a comprehensive method for project valuation under risk and uncertainty. The extensive project valuation methodology introduced is applied on two fictional projects, one from the pharmaceutical sector and one from the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Both industries deal with high risks, high uncertainties and high costs, but also high rewards. The example from the pharmaceutical industry illustrates very well how the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis method, results in a well-diversified portfolio of new drugs with the highest reward at minimum possible risk. Applying the presented probabilistic project valuation approach on the oil exploration and production project shows how to reduce the risk of losing big.

Investment under Uncertainty

Author: Robert K. Dixit

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-07-14

Total Pages: 484

ISBN-13: 1400830176

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How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Modern Methods of Valuation

Author: Eric Shapiro

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2019-01-30

Total Pages: 704

ISBN-13: 135138273X

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The twelfth edition of this essential valuation textbook reflects the changes in the regulatory and statutory framework for property valuations that have occurred since 2013, as well as presenting the tried and tested principles and practices of real estate valuation. The twelfth edition is up to date as of June 2018 with the latest regulations, statutes and case law, including the RICS Valuation – Global Standards 2017. Its comprehensive coverage of the legal, economic and technical aspects of valuation make this book a core text for most university and college real estate programmes, and it provides students and practitioners with current and relevant guidance on the preparation of valuations for statutory purposes. Throughout the text, the author team of experienced valuers presents examples of the application of these principles to the everyday problems met in practice. This new edition continues to be of excellent value to both students and practitioners alike as it provides the reader with a clear understanding of the methods and techniques of valuation.