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Author: Ronald A. Beghetto
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2023-11-02
Total Pages: 191
ISBN-13: 1316512967
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Provides insights, scenarios, and applications to help students embrace uncertainty and become creative authors of their own futures.
Author: Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Published: 2022-04-15
Total Pages: 188
ISBN-13: 1501762478
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
Author: Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Published: 2022-04-15
Total Pages: 204
ISBN-13: 1501762486
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
Author: Giuseppe Calafiore
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2006-03-06
Total Pages: 454
ISBN-13: 1846280958
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Probabilistic and Randomized Methods for Design under Uncertainty is a collection of contributions from the world’s leading experts in a fast-emerging branch of control engineering and operations research. The book will be bought by university researchers and lecturers along with graduate students in control engineering and operational research.
Author: Greg Costikyan
Publisher: MIT Press
Published: 2015-01-30
Total Pages: 150
ISBN-13: 0262527537
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →How uncertainty in games—from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors—engages players and shapes play experiences. In life, uncertainty surrounds us. Things that we thought were good for us turn out to be bad for us (and vice versa); people we thought we knew well behave in mysterious ways; the stock market takes a nosedive. Thanks to an inexplicable optimism, most of the time we are fairly cheerful about it all. But we do devote much effort to managing and ameliorating uncertainty. Is it any wonder, then, asks Greg Costikyan, that we have taken this aspect of our lives and transformed it culturally, making a series of elaborate constructs that subject us to uncertainty but in a fictive and nonthreatening way? That is: we create games. In this concise and entertaining book, Costikyan, an award-winning game designer, argues that games require uncertainty to hold our interest, and that the struggle to master uncertainty is central to their appeal. Game designers, he suggests, can harness the idea of uncertainty to guide their work. Costikyan explores the many sources of uncertainty in many sorts of games—from Super Mario Bros. and Dungeons & Dragons to Rock/Paper/Scissors, from Monopoly to CityVille, from FPS Deathmatch play to Chess. He describes types of uncertainty, including performative uncertainty, analytic complexity, and narrative anticipation. And he suggests ways that game designers who want to craft novel game experiences can use an understanding of game uncertainty in its many forms to improve their designs.
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2017-06-16
Total Pages: 538
ISBN-13: 9781138115095
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2011-02-18
Total Pages: 538
ISBN-13: 0203834984
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker‘s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a
Author: Vaughn Tan
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Published: 2020-07-28
Total Pages: 296
ISBN-13: 0231551878
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.
Author: Debiao Meng
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2024-09-02
Total Pages: 349
ISBN-13: 1040113516
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →In the realm of engineering structures design, the inevitability of uncertainties poses a significant challenge. Uncertainty-Based Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization (UBMDO) stands out for its dual ability to precisely quantify the impact of uncertain variables and harness the potential of multidisciplinary design and optimization, thereby attracting considerable attention. From basic theory to advanced applications, this book helps readers achieve more efficient and reliable design optimization in complex systems through rich case studies and practical technical guidance. The book systematically expounds the fundamental theories and methods of UBMDO, encompassing crucial techniques such as uncertainty modeling, sensitivity analysis, approximate modeling, and uncertainty-based optimization. It also introduces various uncertainty analysis methods, such as stochastic, non-probabilistic, and hybrid approaches, aiding readers in comprehending and managing uncertainty within systems. Through diverse practical engineering cases in fields like machinery, aerospace, and energy, it illustrates the specific application and implementation process of the UBMDO method. Rich graphics, algorithms, and simulation results augment the practicality and applicability of the theoretical knowledge. Furthermore, it explores in depth the future development trends and challenges of UBMDO, sparking innovative thinking and research interests among readers in this field. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of Complex Structures Under Uncertainty caters to a diverse audience: Engineers specializing in multidisciplinary design optimization are given the tools to master uncertainty management, and researchers in related fields will gain important theoretical insights and practical guidance in uncertainty analysis. Additionally, scholars and educators can utilize the book as a comprehensive resource for advanced courses, enabling students to grasp the latest UBMDO applications. Decision makers and managers handling complex systems can extract methods from the book, facilitating improved risk assessment, and strategic development through uncertainty-based optimization.
