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Experts in Uncertainty

Author: Roger M. Cooke

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 1991-10-24

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 0195362373

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Science for Policy Handbook

Author: Vladimir Sucha

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2020-07-29

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0128225963

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Science for Policy Handbook provides advice on how to bring science to the attention of policymakers. This resource is dedicated to researchers and research organizations aiming to achieve policy impacts. The book includes lessons learned along the way, advice on new skills, practices for individual researchers, elements necessary for institutional change, and knowledge areas and processes in which to invest. It puts co-creation at the centre of Science for Policy 2.0, a more integrated model of knowledge-policy relationship. Covers the vital area of science for policymaking Includes contributions from leading practitioners from the Joint Research Centre/European Commission Provides key skills based on the science-policy interface needed for effective evidence-informed policymaking Presents processes of knowledge production relevant for a more holistic science-policy relationship, along with the types of knowledge that are useful in policymaking

Communicating Uncertainty

Author: Sharon M. Friedman

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2012-10-12

Total Pages: 347

ISBN-13: 1135683425

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Exploring the interactions that swirl around scientific uncertainty and its coverage by the mass media, this volume breaks new ground by looking at these issues from three different perspectives: that of communication scholars who have studied uncertainty in a number of ways; that of science journalists who have covered these issues; and that of scientists who have been actively involved in researching uncertain science and talking to reporters about it. In particular, Communicating Uncertainty examines how well the mass media convey to the public the complexities, ambiguities, and controversies that are part of scientific uncertainty. In addition to its new approach to scientific uncertainty and mass media interactions, this book distinguishes itself in the quality of work it assembles by some of the best known science communication scholars in the world. This volume continues the exploration of interactions between scientists and journalists that the three coeditors first documented in their highly successful volume, Scientists and Journalists: Reporting Science as News, which was used for many years as a text in science journalism courses around the world.

Uncertainty

Author: Kostas Kampourakis

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0190871660

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Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.

Communicating Science Effectively

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2017-03-08

Total Pages: 153

ISBN-13: 0309451051

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Science and technology are embedded in virtually every aspect of modern life. As a result, people face an increasing need to integrate information from science with their personal values and other considerations as they make important life decisions about medical care, the safety of foods, what to do about climate change, and many other issues. Communicating science effectively, however, is a complex task and an acquired skill. Moreover, the approaches to communicating science that will be most effective for specific audiences and circumstances are not obvious. Fortunately, there is an expanding science base from diverse disciplines that can support science communicators in making these determinations. Communicating Science Effectively offers a research agenda for science communicators and researchers seeking to apply this research and fill gaps in knowledge about how to communicate effectively about science, focusing in particular on issues that are contentious in the public sphere. To inform this research agenda, this publication identifies important influences â€" psychological, economic, political, social, cultural, and media-related â€" on how science related to such issues is understood, perceived, and used.

Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice

Author: Marcel Boumans

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-10-06

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 1317319486

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Assessment of error and uncertainty is a vital component of both natural and social science. This edited volume presents case studies of research practices across a wide spectrum of scientific fields. It compares methodologies and presents the ingredients needed for an overarching framework applicable to all.

Reproducibility and Replicability in Science

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2019-10-20

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 0309486165

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One of the pathways by which the scientific community confirms the validity of a new scientific discovery is by repeating the research that produced it. When a scientific effort fails to independently confirm the computations or results of a previous study, some fear that it may be a symptom of a lack of rigor in science, while others argue that such an observed inconsistency can be an important precursor to new discovery. Concerns about reproducibility and replicability have been expressed in both scientific and popular media. As these concerns came to light, Congress requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conduct a study to assess the extent of issues related to reproducibility and replicability and to offer recommendations for improving rigor and transparency in scientific research. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science defines reproducibility and replicability and examines the factors that may lead to non-reproducibility and non-replicability in research. Unlike the typical expectation of reproducibility between two computations, expectations about replicability are more nuanced, and in some cases a lack of replicability can aid the process of scientific discovery. This report provides recommendations to researchers, academic institutions, journals, and funders on steps they can take to improve reproducibility and replicability in science.

Science for Policy

Author: Ângela Guimarães Pereira

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780195698497

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The essays deal with policy issues relating to environment governance in a situation where relevant scientific knowledge is uncertain and contextual. Recent debates in the context include climate change, genetically modified foods, and sustainable development. When stakes are high and decisions are urgent, new approaches are required for knowledge production and policy making.Divided into five parts, the volume features: I. methodological perspectives; II. GMO policies covering bio-safety laws; III. climate change policy; IV. energy policy: nuclear waste, corporate energy strategies; V. sustainable development: assessment tools, S&T Policymaking, and water governance.