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Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements

Author: Daniel Byman

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2001-11-20

Total Pages: 163

ISBN-13: 0833032321

The most useful forms of outside support for an insurgent movement include safe havens, financial support, political backing, and direct military assistance. Because states are able to provide all of these types of assistance, their support has had a profound impact on the effectiveness of many rebel movements since the end of the Cold War. However, state support is no longer the only, or indeed necessarily the most important, game in town. Diasporas have played a particularly important role in sustaining several strong insurgencies. More rarely, refugees, guerrilla groups, or other types of non-state supporters play a significant role in creating or sustaining an insurgency, offering fighters, training, or other forms of assistance. This report assesses post-Cold War trends in external support for insurgent movements. It describes the frequency that states, diasporas, refugees, and other non-state actors back guerrilla movements. It also assesses the motivations of these actors and which types of support matter most. This book concludes by assessing the implications for analysts of insurgent movements.

Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 0

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State support or sponsorship of an insurgency as an instrument of foreign policy was common during the Cold War. The United States, the Soviet Union, and a host of regional powers backed their favored proxies, often transforming local quarrels into international contests. The end of the Cold War did not end the use of insurgents, but the dimensions and nature of outside aid and the identity of the providers have changed significantly. Hundreds of millions of dollars no longer regularly flow from Washington's and Moscow's coffers. Leading state sponsors today such as Iran, Rwanda, Angola, and Pakistan, for example, devote far smaller amounts of money and resources to their proxies. Indeed, state support is no longer the only, or necessarily the most important, game in town. Diasporas have played a particularly important role in sustaining several strong insurgencies. More rarely, refugees, guerrilla groups, or other types of non-state supporters play a significant role in creating or sustaining an insurgency, offering fighters, training, or other important forms of support. This report analyzes these changes in the nature of outside support for insurgencies starting with the end of the Cold War. It describes the nature and motivations of state backers and examines the role of diasporas, refugees, and other non-state supporters of insurgencies. The report concludes by assessing which forms of outside support are most important and also offers implications for the analysis of insurgency today.

Evaluating Insurgency External Support Through the French-Algerian War, Vietnam War, and Islamic State

Author: U. S U.S Navy

Publisher:

Published: 2021-07-07

Total Pages: 137

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this thesis is to explore the role of external support for insurgencies, with particular emphasis on the Islamic State (IS). The research evaluates such support during the French-Algerian War, the Vietnam War, and the current war with IS utilizing a model from a 2001 RAND book titled Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements. The book identifies the following external support elements: safe haven and transit, financial resources, political support, propaganda, and direct military support. As this analysis will show, indirect military support (unintentional and or unknowing) is just as relevant today as direct military support. This thesis identifies patterns and vulnerabilities of external support for IS and assesses the current relevance of the 2001 model outlined in the RAND book. Analysis of three case studies reveals continuity among all three in patterns and areas of vulnerability regarding safe haven and transit, financial resources, and propaganda; political and direct military support appear to be less relevant to IS than to prior insurgencies. The current information era, dispersed support, the role of natural resources, and non-state actors have changed the profile of external support for insurgencies today. This thesis recommends improving the condition of fragile states to prevent safe havens for IS, reclaiming territory from IS, and implementing UN sanctions to cease IS financial support. Political pressure and the elimination of non-state support could also deter states from directly or indirectly supporting IS. Further, IS propaganda could be diminished through a global antipropaganda campaign. Finally, strengthening alliances could prevent state and non-state actors from covertly or indirectly providing military support to IS.

Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Waging Insurgent Warfare

Author: Seth G. Jones

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 353

ISBN-13: 0190600861

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An analysis of insurgent warfare, looking at factors that contribute to insurgency.

Wars From Within: Understanding And Managing Insurgent Movements

Author: Albrecht Schnabel

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2014-10-30

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 1783265590

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Wars from Within brings together an international and multidisciplinary group of academics and practitioner-researchers specializing in the study of insurgent movements in order to provide a deeper understanding of the violent manifestations of insurgencies in different parts of the world. In doing so, the book adopts both a functional and regional approach. Firstly, thematic chapters discuss the typology of insurgencies (ethnopolitical, religious and ideological), past and potential responses to them, as well as the impact of advance communication technology on insurgent activity. The book then presents a series of case studies assessing the successes and failures of managing contemporary insurgencies. These are drawn from European, Asian and Middle Eastern insurgencies, as well as the global al-Qaeda network that typifies the post-9/11 challenge posed by internationally operating terrorist organizations. The case studies highlight factors and conditions that trigger, escalate, de-escalate and ultimately end insurgent campaigns. The book concludes with an assessment of how the international community at large has responded and should respond to insurgencies in the future.

The Insurgency in Chechnya and the North Caucasus

Author: Robert W. Schaefer

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 2010-10-22

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 0313386358

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For the first time, a military expert on both Russia and insurgency offers the definitive guide on activities in Southern Russia, explaining why the Russian approach to counter terrorism is failing and why terrorist and insurgent attacks in Russia have sharply increased over the past three years. The Insurgency in Chechnya and the North Caucasus: From Gazavat to Jihad is an comprehensive treatment of this 300 year-old conflict. Thematically organized, it cuts through the rhetoric to provide a contextual framework with which readers can truly understand the "why" and "how" of one of the world's longest-running contemporary insurgencies, despite Russia's best efforts to eradicate it. A fascinating case study of a counterinsurgency campaign that is in direct contravention of U.S. and Western strategy, the book also examines the differences and linkages between insurgency and terrorism; the origins of conflict in the North Caucasus; and the influences of different strains of Islam, of al-Qaida, and of the War on Terror. A critical examination of never-before-revealed Russian counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns explains why those campaigns have consistently failed and why the region has seen such an upswing in violence since the conflict was officially declared "over" less than two years ago.

Financing Terrorism

Author: Michael Freeman

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2016-04-15

Total Pages: 266

ISBN-13: 1317135075

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Without money, terrorists cannot function as organizations and cannot conduct attacks. Yet the questions remain, how vulnerable are terrorists to financial disruptions? Can governments put pressure on their finances in meaningful ways or are they too resilient and adaptive to be affected by state actions? These and other questions about terrorism financing are vigorously debated by scholars and policymakers, particularly since the attacks of September 11th 2001 . While there is a growing literature on policy issues, strategies, and countermeasures, states must first understand their enemies before developing strategies to defeat them. So, instead of focusing on the state response, this book asks a more foundational question: How do different terrorist groups actually raise money? What are their budgets? What do their portfolios look like? How have they changed over time? What are the advantages and disadvantages of different sources of financing? The book includes case studies of 11 different terrorist groups or sets of groups within a country. It is clear that each group has a different portfolio tailored to their needs and their environment and this makes countering terrorist financing more challenging for the state. This topical book will be required reading for all students and scholars interested in terrorism financing as well as those working in government agencies tasked with combating terrorist groups and their financial resources.

Iranian and Hezbollah Hybrid Warfare Activities

Author: Dave Dilegge

Publisher: iUniverse

Published: 2016-11-07

Total Pages: 466

ISBN-13: 1532008678

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This anthology covers Small Wars Journal writings on Iranian and Hezbollah hybrid warfare activities around the world. Writings date from 2007 to 2015, including coverage on the nuclear deal, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and Qods Force global movements, and Hezbollah’s expanding influence as Iran’s proxy. This anthology is meant to support the U.S. security debate on a post-nuclear deal Iran and an increasing Hezbollah presence in Middle East affairs as well as Latin America. This volume is composed of sixty chapters divided into four sections on Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions, Hezbollah’s global operations, Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Middle Eastern security affairs and their activities in Latin America. Also included is a foreword by Jason Rivera, an afterword by Dr. Luis Fleischman, a postscript by Dr. John P. Sullivan, an acronym listing, chapter notes, suggested readings following each section, and short biographies of the fifty-three contributors showcased in this work.