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Thinking Probabilistically

Author: Ariel Amir

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-12-17

Total Pages: 243

ISBN-13: 1108802354

Probability theory has diverse applications in a plethora of fields, including physics, engineering, computer science, chemistry, biology and economics. This book will familiarize students with various applications of probability theory, stochastic modeling and random processes, using examples from all these disciplines and more. The reader learns via case studies and begins to recognize the sort of problems that are best tackled probabilistically. The emphasis is on conceptual understanding, the development of intuition and gaining insight, keeping technicalities to a minimum. Nevertheless, a glimpse into the depth of the topics is provided, preparing students for more specialized texts while assuming only an undergraduate-level background in mathematics. The wide range of areas covered - never before discussed together in a unified fashion – includes Markov processes and random walks, Langevin and Fokker–Planck equations, noise, generalized central limit theorem and extreme values statistics, random matrix theory and percolation theory.

Thinking Probabilistically

Author: Ariel Amir

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-12-17

Total Pages: 243

ISBN-13: 1108479529

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An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.

Cognition and Chance

Author: Raymond S. Nickerson

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2004-06-24

Total Pages: 798

ISBN-13: 113561461X

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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author: Shane Parrish

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2024-10-15

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 0593719972

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Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

HBR Guide to Critical Thinking

Author: Harvard Business Review

Publisher: Harvard Business Press

Published: 2023-01-31

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 1647824478

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Tackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

The Cognitive Science of Belief

Author: Julien Musolino

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-11-17

Total Pages: 627

ISBN-13: 1009007475

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Beliefs play a central role in our lives. They lie at the heart of what makes us human, they shape the organization and functioning of our minds, they define the boundaries of our culture, and they guide our motivation and behavior. Given their central importance, researchers across a number of disciplines have studied beliefs, leading to results and literatures that do not always interact. The Cognitive Science of Belief aims to integrate these disconnected lines of research to start a broader dialogue on the nature, role, and consequences of beliefs. It tackles timeless questions, as well as applications of beliefs that speak to current social issues. This multidisciplinary approach to beliefs will benefit graduate students and researchers in cognitive science, psychology, philosophy, political science, economics, and religious studies.

Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think

Author: Byron Reese

Publisher: BenBella Books

Published: 2022-08-23

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 1637741359

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"Byron Reese gets to the heart of what makes humans different from all others." —Midwest Book Review What makes the human mind so unique? And how did we get this way? This fascinating tale explores the three leaps in our history that made us what we are—and will change how you think about our future. Look around. Clearly, we humans are radically different from the other creatures on this planet. But why? Where are the Bronze Age beavers? The Iron Age iguanas? In Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think, Byron Reese argues that we owe our special status to our ability to imagine the future and recall the past, escaping the perpetual present that all other living creatures are trapped in. Envisioning human history as the development of a societal superorganism he names Agora, Reese shows us how this escape enabled us to share knowledge on an unprecedented scale, and predict—and eventually master—the future. Thoughtful, witty, and compulsively readable, Reese unravels our history as an intelligent species in three acts: Act I: Ancient humans undergo “the awakening,” developing the cognitive ability to mentally time-travel using language Act II: In 17th century France, the mathematical framework known as 'probability theory' is born—a science for seeing into the future that we used to build the modern world Act III: Beginning with the invention of the computer chip, humanity creates machines to gaze into the future with even more precision, overcoming the limits of our brains A fresh new look at the history and destiny of humanity, readers will come away from Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think with a new understanding of what they are—not just another animal, but a creature with a mastery of time itself.

Cognition and Chance

Author: Raymond S. Nickerson

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2004-06-24

Total Pages: 450

ISBN-13: 1135614628

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This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics,

Research on Reasoning with Data and Statistical Thinking: International Perspectives

Author: Gail F. Burrill

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-07-21

Total Pages: 375

ISBN-13: 3031294599

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This book is derived from selected papers from the Fourteenth International Congress on Mathematical Education Topic Study Group 12, Teaching and Learning Statistics. It describes recent research on curriculum, pedagogy and outreach initiatives from countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The book has a focus on the use of data in the teaching and learning of statistics across grade levels and begins with an overview of the status of statistics education and the use of data from seven different countries across the continents and the link between research and practice in those countries. Because it contains specific examples of the research, for example, on the ways children learn, the choice and implementation of tasks, or the role of informal inference, the book will be a great resource to those interested and involved in the teaching of statistics, curriculum developers, and statistics education researchers.

The Essentials of Political Analysis

Author: Philip H. Pollock III

Publisher: CQ Press

Published: 2015-09-16

Total Pages: 281

ISBN-13: 1506305822

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This Fifth Edition of The Essentials of Political Analysis equips students with the skills to conduct political analysis and critically assess statistical research. Bestselling author Philip H. Pollock III builds students’ analytic abilities and develops their statistical reasoning with new data, fresh exercises, and engaging examples. This accessible introduction to the essential elements of political analysis walks students through the basics—measuring concepts, describing variables, formulating and testing hypotheses, controlling for alternative explanations, and interpreting graphic displays, and nearly 50 practical exercises motivate them to use their new skills with confidence.