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Thinking in Bets

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2019-05-07

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 0735216371

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Thinking in Bets

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2018-02-06

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0735216355

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Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Thinking in Bets-Making Smart Decisions when you don't have ...

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How to Decide

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2020-10-13

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0593418484

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Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Decide to Play Great Poker

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Huntington Press Inc

Published: 2011-07-01

Total Pages: 464

ISBN-13: 1935396323

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Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.

Quit

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Noura Books

Published: 2022-06-13

Total Pages: 361

ISBN-13: 6232423720

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"Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."

The Half-Life of Facts

Author: Samuel Arbesman

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2013-08-27

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 159184651X

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New insights from the science of science Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing. Samuel Arbesman shows us how knowledge in most fields evolves systematically and predictably, and how this evolution unfolds in a fascinating way that can have a powerful impact on our lives. He takes us through a wide variety of fields, including those that change quickly, over the course of a few years, or over the span of centuries.

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf

Author: John Coates

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2012-06-14

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 1101583630

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A successful Wall Street trader turned neuroscientist reveals how risk taking and stress transform our body chemistry Before he became a world-class scientist, John Coates ran a derivatives trading desk in New York City. He used the expression “the hour between dog and wolf” to refer to the moment of Jekyll-and-Hyde transformation traders passed through when under pressure. They became cocky and irrationally risk-seeking when on a winning streak, tentative and risk-averse when cowering from losses. In a series of groundbreaking experiments, Coates identified a feedback loop between testosterone and success—one that can cloud men’s judgment in high-pressure decision-making. Coates demonstrates how our bodies produce the fabled gut feelings we so often rely on, how stress in the workplace can impair our judgment and even damage our health, and how sports science can help us toughen our bodies against the ravages of stress. Revealing the biology behind bubbles and crashes, The Hour Between Dog and Wolf sheds new and surprising light on issues that affect us all.

Smart Choices

Author: John S. Hammond

Publisher: Harvard Business School Press

Published: 2015-08

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 9781633691049

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Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

10-10-10

Author: Suzy Welch

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2009-04-20

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 1847377211

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Today, the world offers us more options than ever before, but it also forces us to juggle more priorities, to make more choices, and to make them faster. The result: a crisis of doing too much, or not enough, and making our decisions based on impulse, stress or guilt. In 10-10-10Suzy Welch offers an exciting, effective strategy that will help you make the right decision in any situation, at work or at home; with colleagues, family or friends. The rule is deceptively simple: when faced with a decision, consider what the consequences and outcomes of your various options would be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. But the results are extraordinary. Using the framework of 10-10-10will allow you to think through your decisions and to match them with the expectations and values you hold dearest. Most importantly, it allows you to chart a path in the direction you want, and to head confidently towards it with focus, balance, and joy.