Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets PDF

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2019-05-07

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 0735216371

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A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets PDF

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2018-02-06

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 0735216355

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Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

How to Decide

How to Decide PDF

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2020-10-13

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0593418484

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Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Decide to Play Great Poker

Decide to Play Great Poker PDF

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Huntington Press Inc

Published: 2011-07-01

Total Pages: 464

ISBN-13: 1935396323

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Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.

Quit

Quit PDF

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Noura Books

Published: 2022-06-13

Total Pages: 361

ISBN-13: 6232423720

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"Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."

The Half-Life of Facts

The Half-Life of Facts PDF

Author: Samuel Arbesman

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2013-08-27

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 159184651X

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New insights from the science of science Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing. Samuel Arbesman shows us how knowledge in most fields evolves systematically and predictably, and how this evolution unfolds in a fascinating way that can have a powerful impact on our lives. He takes us through a wide variety of fields, including those that change quickly, over the course of a few years, or over the span of centuries.

Smart Choices

Smart Choices PDF

Author: John S. Hammond

Publisher: Harvard Business School Press

Published: 2015-08

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 9781633691049

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Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

Decisive

Decisive PDF

Author: Chip Heath

Publisher: Random House Canada

Published: 2013-03-26

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 0307361144

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The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

The Art of Decision Making

The Art of Decision Making PDF

Author: Joseph Bikart

Publisher: Watkins Media Limited

Published: 2019-07-09

Total Pages: 275

ISBN-13: 1786782960

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Drawing insights from philosophy, psychology, literature, and theology, a longtime executive business coach explores how and why we make the decisions we do What is it that makes some of us better—or worse—than others at committing to a choice? What are the forces that hold us back, and how can we successfully overcome them? Every facet of our lives depends on the decisions we make. Yet, how often do we pause to reflect on our ability to make the best and smartest choices? The key is how we confront and refine the decision-making process. Here, Joseph Bikart explores the intricacies of decision making, challenging us to understand why we make the choices we do. He explores how the true power of decisions, especially the toughest among them, help us to face our fears and may in turn change how we think about ourselves. Breaking his study into four clear parts and short practical essays, Bikart presents a lively and compelling exploration of the process of decision making. He covers: • Indecision, Indecision: What makes us indecisive? What holds us back and why? • Where Art Thou?: How and where we get stuck and the importance of relaxing one's grip. • The Momentum of Decisiveness: Keeping our focus and proactivity. • The Deciding Mind: Making our smartest choices. Drawing from such different fields as philosophy, psychology, neurology, literature, art history and theology, The Art of Decision Making takes us on a journey from the depths of procrastination to the elation of decision making. Presenting a fresh perspective on what to do at the proverbial fork in the road, Bikart's unique philosophy is insightful, thought provoking, and potentially life-changing.