Think Bayes

Think Bayes PDF

Author: Allen Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2013-09-12

Total Pages: 213

ISBN-13: 1491945443

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If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.

Think Bayes

Think Bayes PDF

Author: Allen B. Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 1492089435

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If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems

Bayes Rules!

Bayes Rules! PDF

Author: Alicia A. Johnson

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2022-03-03

Total Pages: 606

ISBN-13: 1000529568

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Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.

Think Stats

Think Stats PDF

Author: Allen B. Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2011-07-01

Total Pages: 137

ISBN-13: 1449313108

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If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge using the tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. You'll work with a case study throughout the book to help you learn the entire data analysis process—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. Along the way, you'll become familiar with distributions, the rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. Develop your understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Learn topics not usually covered in an introductory course, such as Bayesian estimation Import data from almost any source using Python, rather than be limited to data that has been cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data

Think Stats

Think Stats PDF

Author: Allen B. Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2014-10-16

Total Pages: 284

ISBN-13: 1491907363

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If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge, using tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. By working with a single case study throughout this thoroughly revised book, you’ll learn the entire process of exploratory data analysis—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. You’ll explore distributions, rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. New chapters on regression, time series analysis, survival analysis, and analytic methods will enrich your discoveries. Develop an understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Import data from most sources with Python, rather than rely on data that’s cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data

Think Complexity

Think Complexity PDF

Author: Allen Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2012-03-02

Total Pages: 159

ISBN-13: 1449314635

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Dive into Python's advanced possibilities, including algorithm analysis, graphs, scale-free networks, and cellular automata with this in-depth, hands-on guide.

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way PDF

Author: Will Kurt

Publisher: No Starch Press

Published: 2019-07-09

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 1593279566

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Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics

A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics PDF

Author: Ben Lambert

Publisher: SAGE

Published: 2018-04-20

Total Pages: 744

ISBN-13: 1526418266

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Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics. Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds upon key concepts in a gradual way and slowly acclimatizes students to using R and Stan software, the book covers: An introduction to probability and Bayesian inference Understanding Bayes′ rule Nuts and bolts of Bayesian analytic methods Computational Bayes and real-world Bayesian analysis Regression analysis and hierarchical methods This unique guide will help students develop the statistical confidence and skills to put the Bayesian formula into practice, from the basic concepts of statistical inference to complex applications of analyses.

A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods

A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods PDF

Author: Peter D. Hoff

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-06-02

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 0387924078

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A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.

Think DSP

Think DSP PDF

Author: Allen B. Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2016-07-12

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13: 149193851X

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If you understand basic mathematics and know how to program with Python, you’re ready to dive into signal processing. While most resources start with theory to teach this complex subject, this practical book introduces techniques by showing you how they’re applied in the real world. In the first chapter alone, you’ll be able to decompose a sound into its harmonics, modify the harmonics, and generate new sounds. Author Allen Downey explains techniques such as spectral decomposition, filtering, convolution, and the Fast Fourier Transform. This book also provides exercises and code examples to help you understand the material. You’ll explore: Periodic signals and their spectrums Harmonic structure of simple waveforms Chirps and other sounds whose spectrum changes over time Noise signals and natural sources of noise The autocorrelation function for estimating pitch The discrete cosine transform (DCT) for compression The Fast Fourier Transform for spectral analysis Relating operations in time to filters in the frequency domain Linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory Amplitude modulation (AM) used in radio Other books in this series include Think Stats and Think Bayes, also by Allen Downey.