Statistical Diagnostic Modeling of Marine Fog Using Model Output Parameters

Statistical Diagnostic Modeling of Marine Fog Using Model Output Parameters PDF

Author: Brian Lee Van Orman

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13:

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Diagnostic model output parameters, provided by the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, Calif. (FNWC), and the marine fog frequency climatology developed at the Naval Postgraduate School, are statistically processed in context with marine surface synoptic ship reports in order to develop a linear regression scheme to model distribution of marine fog. The study area includes a large section of the North Pacific Ocean (from 30-60N) at 0000 GMT, 1-30 July 1976. The diagnostic capabilities of the regression equations are analyzed through the use of three verification scoring systems. Improvement over climatology and FNWC's operational fog probability program (FTER), is demonstrated. Selective mappings of the regression equation outputs and categorized observations are intercompared with the sea-level pressure analysis; FTER; and the evaporative heat flux--the most significant predictor parameter.

Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences

Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences PDF

Author: Wade H. Shafer

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1979-11-01

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 9780306403309

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Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences was first conceived, published, and dis seminated by the Center for Information and Numerical Data Analysis and Synthesis (CINDAS) * at Purdue University in 1957, starting its coverage of theses with the academic year 1955. Beginning with Volume 13, the printing and dissemination phases of the ac tivity were transferred to University Microfilms/Xerox of Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the thought that such an arrangement would be more beneficial to the academic and general scientific and technical community. After five years of this joint undertaking we had concluded that it was in the interest of all concerned if the printing and distribution of the volume were handled by an international publishing house to assure improved service and broader dissemination. Hence, starting with Volume 18, Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences has been disseminated on a worldwide basis by Plenum Publishing Corporation of New York, and in the same year the coverage was broadened to include Canadian universities. All back issues can also be ordered from Plenum. We have reported in Volume 23 (thesis year 1978) a total of 10,148 theses titles from 27 Canadian and 220 United States universities. We are sure that this broader base for theses titles reported will greatly enhance the value of this important annual reference work. While Volume 23 reports these submitted in 1978, on occasion, certain universities do report theses submitted in previous years but not reported at the time.

Marine Fog Development Along the West Coast During 1973 Using Transient Ship and Coastal Station Observations

Marine Fog Development Along the West Coast During 1973 Using Transient Ship and Coastal Station Observations PDF

Author: George Stephen Evermann

Publisher:

Published: 1976

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13:

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Using transient ship observations, a hypothetical five phase Marine Fog Development (MFD) Model was applied to four actual cases of summer marine fog during 1973 along the central California coast. The MFD Model incorporates a phase zero or synoptic phase and a proposed Coastal Convergence Zone (CCZ) concept into previous West Coast fog models. Phase zero describes the synoptic conditions that establish the marine layer over the coastal regions and explains the presence of low stratus over cast which normally exists prior to fog development cases. The CCZ concept defines a transition zone in which warm dry continental air converges with cool moist marine air and denotes the seaward extent of coastal influence. The location of the transitory CCZ is dependent upon the strength of offshore flow of continental air from the coastal region. The location where this flow meets the prevailing northwesterlies becomes the most likely site of marine fog formation. Selected synoptic scale meteorological parameters were examined and incorporated with transient ship and coastal station observations. This appeared to be an effective technique for tracking the CCZ and identifying fog phase development. (Author).

Climatological Marine-fog Frequencies Derived from a Synthesis of the Visibility-weather Group Elements of the Transient-ship Synoptic Reports

Climatological Marine-fog Frequencies Derived from a Synthesis of the Visibility-weather Group Elements of the Transient-ship Synoptic Reports PDF

Author: Robert J. Renard

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13:

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The study presents the essentials of a method of synthesizing the visibility-weather group elements of marine synoptic reports into a computerized scheme for the purpose of deriving frequencies of marine-fog occurrence. The program, based on an interpretation of reporting guidelines in the Synoptic Code Manual, uses 16 combinations of present and past weather, and visibility, to identify fog in the reports. The program then objectively assigns the duration of fog for the period represented by each of the reports. A prototype climatology of marine-fog occurrence for July, over the North Pacific Ocean, is derived from application of the method to a ten-year data base (1963-72). Results are compared and discussed in relation to other published coastal and marine-fog climatologies. Diurnal fog frequencies at sea and the compatibility of fog observations from Ocean Weather Stations and transient ships are also treated. The continuing work and its goals are described.

The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity PDF

Author: Derek A. West

Publisher:

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13:

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This proposed study examines the potential use of satellite passive microwave rainfall measurements derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) constellation to improve eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone intensity change forecasting techniques. Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I-based rainfall measuring algorithm and 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60- and 72-hour intensity changes from best track data records are examined in an effort to identify statistically significant predictors of intensity change. Correlations between rainfall parameters and intensity change are analyzed using tropical cyclone data from three years, 1992 to 1994. Stratifications based upon tropical cyclone intensity, rate of intensity change, climatology, translation, landfall and synoptic-scale environmental forcing variables are studied to understand factors that may affect a statistical relationship between rainfall parameters and intensity change. The predictive skill of statistically significant rainfall parameters is assessed by using independent tropical cyclone data from another year, 1995. In addition, case studies on individual tropical cyclones are conducted to gain insight on predictive performance and operational implementation issues.