The Science and Management of Uncertainty

The Science and Management of Uncertainty PDF

Author: Bruce G. Marcot

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2020-11-26

Total Pages: 278

ISBN-13: 1000244512

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Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.

The Science and Management of Uncertainty

The Science and Management of Uncertainty PDF

Author: Bruce G. Marcot

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2020-11-26

Total Pages: 360

ISBN-13: 1000244571

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Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.

Risk and Uncertainty in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics

Risk and Uncertainty in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics PDF

Author: Justus Wesseler

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781843766094

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They begin by studying various environmental issues such as climate change and biodiversity conservation to underline the importance of identifying different forms of uncetainty have on economic development and environmental policies, and study the attitudes of different user-groups to these issues. Finally, they examine the natural resource management dilemmas faced by the private sector inclding issues of optimal resource allocation, insurance problems and consumer behaviour.

On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations

On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations PDF

Author: Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2024-06-05

Total Pages: 229

ISBN-13: 1802207856

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This informative book reveals the pervasive nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Drawing on numerous real-world examples including case studies from advanced and developing countries, Peter van Bergeijk presents profound insights into how downplaying these errors undermines the scientific rigour of economic analysis and outlines how to manage uncertainty in economic analysis moving forward.

Biodiversity and the Precautionary Principle

Biodiversity and the Precautionary Principle PDF

Author: Rosie Cooney

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2012-05-16

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 1136570993

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Great uncertainty typically surrounds decisions and management actions in the conservation of biodiversity and natural resource management, and yet there are risks of serious and irreversible harm for both biodiversity and the humans that rely on it. The precautionary principle arguably underlies all international conservation efforts and promotes acting to avoid serious or irreversible environmental harm, despite lack of scientific certainty as to the likelihood, magnitude or cause of harm. This book is the first to examine the application of the precautionary principle to biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, incorporating perspectives from scientists, economists, lawyers and practitioners from both developing and developed countries. It analyses the application and impacts of the principle in many areas including forestry, invasive alien species, wildlife trade, protected areas and fisheries, in a range of national and international contexts. Particular attention is drawn to issues of equity, livelihoods, science and politics, and the book provides guidelines for applying the precautionary principle to biodiversity conservation and natural resource management.

Decision Making in Natural Resource Management

Decision Making in Natural Resource Management PDF

Author: Michael J. Conroy

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2013-01-03

Total Pages: 480

ISBN-13: 1118506235

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This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples. Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement.

Uncertainty

Uncertainty PDF

Author: Jonathan Fields

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2012-11-06

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 1591845661

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Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Biodiversity and the Precautionary Principle

Biodiversity and the Precautionary Principle PDF

Author: Barney Dickson

Publisher: Earthscan / James & James

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 9781844072767

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Great uncertainty typically surrounds decisions and management actions in the conservation of biodiversity and natural resource management, and yet there are risks of serious and irreversible harm for both biodiversity and the humans that rely on it. The precautionary principle arguably underlies all international conservation efforts and promotes acting to avoid serious or irreversible environmental harm, despite lack of scientific certainty as to the likelihood, magnitude or cause of harm. This book is the first to examine the application of the precautionary principle to biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, incorporating perspectives from scientists, economists, lawyers and practitioners from both developing and developed countries. It analyses the application and impacts of the principle in many areas including forestry, invasive alien species, wildlife trade, protected areas and fisheries, in a range of national and international contexts. Particular attention is drawn to issues of equity, livelihoods, science and politics, and the book provides guidelines for applying the precautionary principle to biodiversity conservation and natural resource management.

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