Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2014-12-12
Total Pages: 34
ISBN-13: 1498333486
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Energy
Publisher:
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 88
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations
Publisher:
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 264
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
Publisher:
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 104
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Bassam Fattouh
Publisher:
Published: 2012
Total Pages: 25
ISBN-13: 9781907555442
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Energy and Commerce. Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
Publisher:
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 988
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2015-07-14
Total Pages: 41
ISBN-13: 151357227X
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.