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The Revised EBA-Lite Methodology

Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-03

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1498324398

The Methodology review identified three broad areas for improving the EBA-Lite methodology: (1) expanding the fundamentals and policy determinants in the CA and REER regressions to better capture the external balance of EBA-Lite countries; (2) identifying alternatives to regression models for external assessments of large exporters of exhaustible commodities; and (3) a revised approach for the assessment of external sustainability in highly indebted economies. Accordingly, the revised methodology consists of three modules: 1) Regression Module 2) Module for External Assessments of Exporters of Exhaustible Commodities 3) Module for the Assessment of External Sustainability

Nigeria

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-04-01

Total Pages: 105

ISBN-13: 1498306152

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This Article IV Consultation highlights that Nigeria’s economy is still recovering from the substantial terms-of-trade shock that triggered the 2016 recession. Persistent structural and policy challenges constrain growth to below the level needed to reduce vulnerabilities and improve development outcomes. With elections now complete, there is a greater chance for faster policy implementation. The authorities’ Economic Recovery and Growth Plan priorities remain appropriate and should be urgently implemented. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation would be required to create space for higher capital and priority spending while improving spending efficiency and strengthening governance. A comprehensive package of urgent policy reforms is required to address vulnerabilities and raise growth over the medium term. The IMF staff suggested that strengthening banking sector resilience requires increasing capital buffers. This includes extending the no dividend distribution rule to all banks with high restructured loans.

Review of Institutional Safeguards

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-06-30

Total Pages: 129

ISBN-13:

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Ensuring the integrity of data and analysis is fundamental to the Fund’s ability to deliver on its mandate. As part of the Fund’s institutional safeguards review, a Working Group on Data and Analysis Integrity (WGDAI) was established to assess the possible need for changes in processes safeguarding the integrity of data and analysis at the Fund. The IMF primarily uses data supplied by its membership to fulfil its core mandate. The IMF has initiated and progressively enhanced a number of initiatives to help members prepare official data of adequate quality. Assessing data integrity and supporting countries’ efforts to achieve high standards has required a sustained commitment on the part of the Fund.

Vanuatu

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-13

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 1498319505

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Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-20

Total Pages: 127

ISBN-13: 1513524224

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This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Afghanistan and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite difficult circumstances, the Afghan authorities have continued to demonstrate strong commitment to the economic program supported by the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. Given the uncertain outlook dominated by downside risks, policies should focus on maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability and putting the conditions in place for stronger and more inclusive growth, led by the private sector. The authorities have made progress with their self-reliance agenda, yet strong financial support from donors is needed to help Afghanistan stay on the path to greater prosperity. Fiscal policy should continue to target a broadly balanced budget, supported by fair and sustainable domestic revenue mobilization and strong financial support by donors. Resources should shift toward pro-growth and pro-poor outlays and create fiscal space to meet the country’s considerable development needs.

Gabon

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-23

Total Pages: 123

ISBN-13: 1513524461

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This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Gabon and its Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and Request for Waiver for NonObservance of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of the Remaining Purchases. Gabon’s performance under the program supported by the IMF’s EFF Arrangement has been broadly satisfactory. Macroeconomic conditions have continued to improve, with growth slowly picking-up, fiscal and external positions improving, and public debt declining. Going forward, bold and ambitious reforms are needed to generate higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth. Sustained implementation of structural reforms is critical. Efforts to close infrastructure gaps, improve human capital, deepen financial intermediation, clear domestic arrears, and enhance governance and anticorruption measures are necessary to improve the business climate and achieve higher and inclusive growth. Efforts should continue to further boost domestic revenue and contain nonpriority spending, while protecting investment and enhancing social protection. Improving public finance management and the efficiency of public investment is also important for growth prospects.

Republic of Moldova

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-03-18

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 1513537288

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This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Moldova and its Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements. Moldova’s economic growth remained solid in the first three quarters of 2019, with output expanding nearly 5 percent, supported by strong domestic demand. The three-year program has been broadly successful in achieving its objectives. Comprehensive reforms have rehabilitated the banking system and strengthened financial sector governance, entrenching macrofinancial stability. Prudent and well-coordinated policies are needed to safeguard the progress achieved. Decisive governance and institutional reforms are necessary for faster, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Safeguarding central bank independence is a priority. The inflation-targeting (IT) regime remains appropriate, but additional efforts are needed to improve policy credibility, promote exchange rate flexibility, and disincentivize foreign currency intermediation. Widespread governance and institutional vulnerabilities are major impediments to accelerating income convergence. Addressing these could have significant growth dividends through faster capital accumulation, reduced labor and human capital headwinds from emigration, and higher productivity.

Methodological Note on EBA-Lite

Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-08-02

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1498346030

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The Fund has taken important steps to enhance its external sector assessments since the launch of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and the External Sector Report (ESR) in 2012, which provides a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies. With scope for strengthening external sector assessments of non-EBA countries, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for the application of EBA’s conceptual innovations to a broader set of countries. Following the 2014 TSR, the Managing Director’s Action Plan proposed developing EBA-lite to extend the EBA methodology to a broader group of countries where adequate data is available. In the fall of 2014, the launch of the EBA-lite methodology for current account assessments provided the first extension of EBA approach for non-EBA countries. In summer 2015, the real exchange rate index model and the external sustainability approach were added to the EBA-lite framework. This note serves as a reference for the EBA-lite methodology. It provides: (i) motivations for developing EBA-lite and guidance for its use; (ii) technical explanations of all three EBA-lite approaches; and (iii) suggestions on how to articulate staff assessments of the external sector informed by model results.

Rwanda

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-04

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 1498324452

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Rwanda has made considerable progress in sustaining high and inclusive growth and reducing poverty. Despite numerous shocks, macroeconomic management has been strong and debt risks have remained low. Going forward, the authorities’ National Strategy for Transformation (NST) aims to make progress toward the SDGs, but its financing will be challenging. A more neutral medium-term fiscal policy stance can help, reinforced with commitments for more domestic revenue mobilization and mitigation of fiscal risks. The central bank moved to a new interest-rate based monetary policy framework and, with inflation below its target range, eased the policy stance. To support their policies and NST implementation, the authorities are requesting approval of a 3-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).

Rwanda: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-01-13

Total Pages: 121

ISBN-13: 1616359285

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Rwanda’s medium-term outlook is positive, supported by the authorities’ large policy package to respond to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic and their continued commitment to the PCI in a challenging environment. Economic recovery is underway with easing of restrictions supported by faster vaccination rates since July. GDP growth is projected at 10.2 percent in 2021 and inflation remained subdued. But Rwanda’s remarkable economic and social progress over the last two decades faces a significant setback, with poverty, unemployment, and gender inequalities on the rise. These pandemic scars, if not addressed, risk reversing hard-won economic and social gains. With a large share of the population still unvaccinated and the emergence of new variants, risks to the outlook remain elevated.