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The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America

Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1484361695

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author: Mr.Antonio David

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-26

Total Pages: 67

ISBN-13: 1484352785

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This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, central bank reports, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation for these economies

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

Author: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-05-31

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 1484304489

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The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.

Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America During the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-03-18

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1513574337

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The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay.

Resilience in Latin America

Author: Mr.Jose De Gregorio

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-12-20

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484321758

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This paper analyzes the unprecedented resilience of Latin American countries to the global financial crisis. It argues that sound macroeconomic conditions, which allowed an unusual monetary and fiscal expansion, exchange rate flexibility, a strong and well--regulated financial system, high level of reserves, and a bit of luck coming from very high terms of trade, were central to good economic performance. Persevering along the road of strong macroeconomic and financial policies is necessary, but not sufficient, to go from recovery to sustained growth.

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-28

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484377451

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This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-10-01

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484379063

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A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

Author: Andrea Pescatori

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-01

Total Pages: 93

ISBN-13: 1462307213

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This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, Budget Speeches, central bank reports, Convergence and Stability Programs submitted by the authorities to the European Commission, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-04-20

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 1498344658

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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

Author: Richard Hemming

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-12

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.