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Author: Andrew Tylecote
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2013-09-13
Total Pages: 354
ISBN-13: 1136104682
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Long waves are cycles of some fifty years duration in which a period of rapid expansion is followed by one of slow growth of stagnation. This book provides a critical examination of long wave theory and an original explanation of long fluctuations which is highly relevant to the current crisis in the world economy.
Author: Andrew Tylecote
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 1993
Total Pages: 338
ISBN-13: 9780415036917
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Long waves are cycles of some fifty years duration in which a period of rapid expansion is followed by one of slow growth of stagnation. This book provides a critical examination of long wave theory and an original explanation of long fluctuations which is highly relevant to the current crisis in the world economy.
Author: J. J. Van Duijn
Publisher:
Published: 2010-10-20
Total Pages: 256
ISBN-13: 9780415607667
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Of all fluctuations in economic activity, the long wave or Kondratieff cycle is easily the most puzzling and least understood one. Does it really exist, and if so, is it only a cycle in prices or a cycle in economic activity at large? What causes it, and has it been confined to Europe or does it affect the world economy as a whole? These questions, which seemed of little relevance in the prosperous years of the postwar growth era, have gained new importance since 1973. With the downturn of the long wave, interest in it has enjoyed a revival, as it did in the 1930s. A great number of publications on the long wave have appeared since 1973, many of which have added to our insight of what causes the recurrent alternations of growth acceleration and retardation. This book is the first in the English language in which all important long wave theories, old as well as recent, are brought together. It focuses on the long wave as an international phenomenon, affecting all industrialised countries. It contains new theory as well as empirical evidence and in the final section suggests a number of policy recommendations to generate innovation. This book offers an interpretation of long-term economic development different from those commonly found in the literature. It will be of interest to students and scholars of the economics of growth and change, as well as to economic historians and policy-makers. This book was first published in 1983.
Author: Leo Nefiodow
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Published: 2017-04-19
Total Pages: 252
ISBN-13: 9781545485149
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →What are the major new growth markets of the future? Why do groundbreaking innovations - like the computer, the automobile or the steam engine in the past - increasingly fail to materialize? What are the current growth barriers that hinder the further development of economy and society? The reader will find answers to these questions in this book. The Theory of Long Waves serves as a scientific foundation. In short, it states that economic and social development is significantly determined by periodic cycles that last between 40 and 60 years. In honor of their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff, these long waves are called Kondratieff cycles. Since the late 18th century, economists have empirically proven five Kondratieff cycles. The long waves have a particularly strategic role: those, who identify the respective current Kondratieff cycle early on are able to focus on the future, to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its momentum - just like the leading command of information technology during the last, the fifth Kondratieff cycle made full employment and increasing wealth possible for these countries. The sixth Kondratieff cycle has begun with the turn of this century. As the analyses in this book show, health care will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects. Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next decades. This book is tailored to a general audience, includes 76 graphics and 13 tables and is aimed at stakeholders in economy and society, experts and managers and all those, who are interested in the future. Aside from a profound analysis, the book also describes measures to develop the sixth Kondratieff.
Author: Nikolai D. Kondratieff
Publisher: Ravenio Books
Published:
Total Pages: 32
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements. When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven year business cycles. But these seven to eleven year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycles. The dynamics of economic life is in reality more complicated. In addition to the above-mentioned cycles, which we shall agree to call “intermediate,” the existence of still shorter waves of about three and one-half years’ length has recently been shown to be probable. But that is not all. There is, indeed, reason to assume the existence of long waves of an average length of about 50 years in the capitalistic economy, a fact which still further complicates the problem of economic dynamics.
Author: Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев
Publisher: [New York] : Richardson & Snyder
Published: 1984
Total Pages: 160
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Brian J. L. Berry
Publisher:
Published: 1991
Total Pages: 264
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability—and the value—of "long-wave" theory. In Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior, Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles— one inflationary and the other deflationary—form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena. As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not," he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."
Author: John Sterman
Publisher:
Published: 2017-08-24
Total Pages: 66
ISBN-13: 9781376217360
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Leo Nefiodow
Publisher: CreateSpace
Published: 2014-03-25
Total Pages: 264
ISBN-13: 9781496140388
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →What are the major new growth markets of the future? Why do groundbreaking innovations – like the computer, the automobile or the steam engine in the past – increasingly fail to materialize? What are the current growth barriers that hinder the further development of economy and society?The reader will find answers to these questions in this book. The Theory of Long Waves serves as a scientific foundation. In short, it states that economic and social development is significantly determined by periodic cycles that last between 40 and 60 years. In honor of their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff, these long waves are called Kondratieff cycles.Since the late 18th century, economists have empirically proven five Kondratieff cycles. The long waves have a particularly strategic role: those, who identify the respective current Kondratieff cycle early on are able to focus on the future, to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its momentum – just like the leading command of information technology during the last, the fifth Kondratieff cycle made full employment and increasing wealth possible for these countries.The fifth Kondratieff cycle ended with the turn of this century, while a new long cycle, the sixth Kondratieff, has begun. As the analyses in this book show, the health care market will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social and spiritual aspects.Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next 50 years.This book is tailored to a general audience, includes 76 graphics and 13 tables and is aimed at stakeholders in economy and society, experts and managers and all those, who are interested in the future. The book is already in its seventh edition in the German-speaking countries. Aside from a profound analysis, the book also describes measures to develop the sixth Kondratieff.
