The Keys to the White House

The Keys to the White House PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Lexington Books

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 9780739112656

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Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Predicting the Next President

Predicting the Next President PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2024-07-01

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13:

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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Madison Books

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780819187512

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The revolutionary system that reveals how presidential elections really work from the civil war to the 21st century. As controversial as it is compelling this book fundamentally alters our understanding of presidential politics.

The Black History of the White House

The Black History of the White House PDF

Author: Clarence Lusane

Publisher: City Lights Books

Published: 2013-01-23

Total Pages: 544

ISBN-13: 0872866114

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The Black History of the White House presents the untold history, racial politics, and shifting significance of the White House as experienced by African Americans, from the generations of enslaved people who helped to build it or were forced to work there to its first black First Family, the Obamas. Clarence Lusane juxtaposes significant events in White House history with the ongoing struggle for democratic, civil, and human rights by black Americans and demonstrates that only during crises have presidents used their authority to advance racial justice. He describes how in 1901 the building was officially named the “White House” amidst a furious backlash against President Roosevelt for inviting Booker T. Washington to dinner, and how that same year that saw the consolidation of white power with the departure of the last black Congressmember elected after the Civil War. Lusane explores how, from its construction in 1792 to its becoming the home of the first black president, the White House has been a prism through which to view the progress and struggles of black Americans seeking full citizenship and justice. “Clarence Lusane is one of America’s most thoughtful and critical thinkers on issues of race, class and power.”—Manning Marable "Barack Obama may be the first black president in the White House, but he's far from the first black person to work in it. In this fascinating history of all the enslaved people, workers and entertainers who spent time in the president's official residence over the years, Clarence Lusane restores the White House to its true colors."—Barbara Ehrenreich "Reading The Black History of the White House shows us how much we DON'T know about our history, politics, and culture. In a very accessible and polished style, Clarence Lusane takes us inside the key national events of the American past and present. He reveals new dimensions of the black presence in the US from revolutionary days to the Obama campaign. Yes, 'black hands built the White House'—enslaved black hands—but they also built this country's economy, political system, and culture, in ways Lusane shows us in great detail. A particularly important feature of this book its personal storytelling: we see black political history through the experiences and insights of little-known participants in great American events. The detailed lives of Washington's slaves seeking freedom, or the complexities of Duke Ellington's relationships with the Truman and Eisenhower White House, show us American racism, and also black America's fierce hunger for freedom, in brand new and very exciting ways. This book would be a great addition to many courses in history, sociology, or ethnic studies courses. Highly recommended!"—Howard Winant "The White House was built with slave labor and at least six US presidents owned slaves during their time in office. With these facts, Clarence Lusane, a political science professor at American University, opens The Black History of the White House(City Lights), a fascinating story of race relations that plays out both on the domestic front and the international stage. As Lusane writes, 'The Lincoln White House resolved the issue of slavery, but not that of racism.' Along with the political calculations surrounding who gets invited to the White House are matters of musical tastes and opinionated first ladies, ingredients that make for good storytelling."—Boston Globe Dr. Clarence Lusane has published in The Washington Post, The Miami Herald, The Baltimore Sun, Oakland Tribune, Black Scholar, and Race and Class. He often appears on PBS, BET, C-SPAN, and other national media.

Governing at Home

Governing at Home PDF

Author: Michael Nelson

Publisher: University Press of Kansas

Published: 2011-09-01

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 0700618112

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Domestic policy issues are neglected by the president only at considerable risk, since policies in health care, education, welfare, the environment, and civil rights deeply affect the lives of ordinary Americans. This groundbreaking book on White House domestic policymaking is the first to draw upon both the experiences of former presidential advisers and the expertise of leading presidency scholars to explain how policies reflect campaign promises, emerge and evolve, and are sold to the American people. Covering six administrations from Richard Nixon through George W. Bush-with ample references to Barack Obama-it interweaves those insider and outsider perspectives to convey an eye-opening understanding of the policymaking process and the factors that influence it. The contributors here offer an unusual balance of practical wisdom and social science knowledge. Their insights address a number of key questions throughout the book: What role does the presidential campaign have in shaping the subsequent activity of the White House? How are the specifics of domestic policy, and priorities, established once a president is elected? Who, and what, is routinely involved in trying to sell domestic policy preferences to the American people? And what lessons can be learned from past successes and failures to enhance the ability of future presidents to succeed? "If there is a single overarching lesson to be drawn from this volume," observes contributor Bruce Miroff, "it might be the following: domestic policymaking is hard." These policy advisers know firsthand just how hard it is, and the lack of partisanship in their comments is striking and reassuring. Their accounts of lessons learned from the Oval Office will be especially valuable for years to come for scholars and students who wish to be acquainted with the real job of governing at home.

Professor Allan Lichtman’s method for predicting the winners of the U.S. popular votes since 1984. The 13 keys to the White House

Professor Allan Lichtman’s method for predicting the winners of the U.S. popular votes since 1984. The 13 keys to the White House PDF

Author: Tim Nienaber

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2020-08-05

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 3346219291

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Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Politics - Region: USA, University of Bonn, language: English, abstract: This paper will focus on what Lichtman calls the "Thirteen Keys to the White House" and how he used them to predict the outcomes of the last nine presidential elections. To do so, his book "The Keys to the White House" which was firstly published in 1996 is required as the main source for the following steps that will serve as the leading topics of each chapter of this paper. The first chapter will briefly summarize and explain Lichtman’s thirteen keys and how they were determined as critical indicators for predicting the winner of a presidential election. In a second step and therefore in the second chapter the focus will lie on how Lichtman decided whether a key applied to a residing President or not, especially regarding certain keys which cannot be answered simply because of extraordinary circumstances surrounding particular candidates of the various presidential elections since 1984. As Lichtman stated that the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald J. Trump and Democratic candidate and former First Lady of the United States Hillary Clinton was the hardest election to predict, a third chapter will focus on the reasons for that. Additionally, the chapter will try to apply the keys to a new election by assuming that Donald Trump will run for office again.

Prejudice and the Old Politics

Prejudice and the Old Politics PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Lexington Books

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 396

ISBN-13: 9780739101261

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Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.

White House Burning

White House Burning PDF

Author: Simon Johnson

Publisher: Vintage

Published: 2013-02-12

Total Pages: 386

ISBN-13: 0307947645

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From the authors of the national bestseller 13 Bankers, a chilling account of America’s unprecedented debt crisis: how it came to pass, why it threatens to topple the nation as a superpower, and what needs to be done about it. With bracing clarity, White House Burning explains why the national debt matters to your everyday life. Simon Johnson and James Kwak describe how the government has been able to pay off its debt in the past, even after the massive deficits incurred as a result of World War II, and analyze why this is near-impossible today. They closely examine, among other factors, macroeconomic shifts of the 1970s, Reaganism and the rise of conservatism, and demographic changes that led to the growth of major—and extremely popular—social insurance programs. What is unquestionably clear is how recent financial turmoil exacerbated the debt crisis while creating a political climate in which it is even more difficult to solve.

How Democracies Die

How Democracies Die PDF

Author: Steven Levitsky

Publisher: Crown

Published: 2019-01-08

Total Pages: 321

ISBN-13: 1524762946

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • “Comprehensive, enlightening, and terrifyingly timely.”—The New York Times Book Review (Editors' Choice) WINNER OF THE GOLDSMITH BOOK PRIZE • SHORTLISTED FOR THE LIONEL GELBER PRIZE • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The Washington Post • Time • Foreign Affairs • WBUR • Paste Donald Trump’s presidency has raised a question that many of us never thought we’d be asking: Is our democracy in danger? Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have spent more than twenty years studying the breakdown of democracies in Europe and Latin America, and they believe the answer is yes. Democracy no longer ends with a bang—in a revolution or military coup—but with a whimper: the slow, steady weakening of critical institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, and the gradual erosion of long-standing political norms. The good news is that there are several exit ramps on the road to authoritarianism. The bad news is that, by electing Trump, we have already passed the first one. Drawing on decades of research and a wide range of historical and global examples, from 1930s Europe to contemporary Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela, to the American South during Jim Crow, Levitsky and Ziblatt show how democracies die—and how ours can be saved. Praise for How Democracies Die “What we desperately need is a sober, dispassionate look at the current state of affairs. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, two of the most respected scholars in the field of democracy studies, offer just that.”—The Washington Post “Where Levitsky and Ziblatt make their mark is in weaving together political science and historical analysis of both domestic and international democratic crises; in doing so, they expand the conversation beyond Trump and before him, to other countries and to the deep structure of American democracy and politics.”—Ezra Klein, Vox “If you only read one book for the rest of the year, read How Democracies Die. . . .This is not a book for just Democrats or Republicans. It is a book for all Americans. It is nonpartisan. It is fact based. It is deeply rooted in history. . . . The best commentary on our politics, no contest.”—Michael Morrell, former Acting Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (via Twitter) “A smart and deeply informed book about the ways in which democracy is being undermined in dozens of countries around the world, and in ways that are perfectly legal.”—Fareed Zakaria, CNN

Thirteen Cracks

Thirteen Cracks PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2021-11-08

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 1538156520

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America’s founders feared a president like Donald Trump. Through the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, they erected a fortified but constrained government to secure the benchmarks of our democracy and established the guardrails designed to protect it. But Trump pushed almost every one of the Framers’ safeguards to its limit—most held, but some broke under the weight of presidential abuses even the Framers did not foresee. Thirteen Cracks will be the first book to expose the most vulnerable areas in our democracy, explain in historical context how President Trump uniquely and outrageously exploited these weak spots, and propose a fix for each challenge. Historian Allen J. Lichtman argues that Trump has put us at a pivot point in our history, where the survival of American democracy is at stake. But this is also an historic opportunity to shore up the vulnerabilities and to strengthen our democracy.