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The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory

Author: James M. Joyce

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1999-04-13

Total Pages: 281

ISBN-13: 1139471384

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.

The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory

Author: James M. Joyce

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1999-04-13

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 9780521641647

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The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true.

An Introduction to Decision Theory

Author: Martin Peterson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-03-30

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 1107151597

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A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.

Evidence, Decision and Causality

Author: Arif Ahmed

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-02-02

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781316641545

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Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.

Evidential Decision Theory

Author: Arif Ahmed

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2021-10-21

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13: 1108607861

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Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.

Decision Theory with a Human Face

Author: Richard Bradley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-10-26

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 1107003210

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Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Decision, Probability and Utility

Author: Peter Gärdenfors

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1988-04-29

Total Pages: 464

ISBN-13: 9780521336581

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Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Thinking about Acting

Author: John L. Pollock

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2006-07-27

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 0199838860

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John Pollock aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real agents--not ideal agents. Real agents have limited cognitive powers, but traditional theories of rationality have applied only to idealized agents that lack such constraints. Pollock argues that theories of ideal rationality are largely irrelevant to the decision making of real agents. Thinking about Acting aims to provide a theory of "real rationality."

Decision, Probability, and Utility

Author: Peter Gärdenfors

Publisher:

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 9780521333917

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Taking Chances

Author: Jordan Howard Sobel

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1994-04-29

Total Pages: 396

ISBN-13: 9780521416351

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J. Howard Sobel has long been recognized as an important figure in philosophical discussions of rational decision. He has done much to help formulate the concept of causal decision theory. In this volume of essays Sobel explores the Bayesian idea that rational actions maximize expected values, where an action's expected value is a weighted average of its agent's values for its possible total outcomes. Newcomb's Problem and The Prisoner's Dilemma are discussed, and Allais-type puzzles are viewed from the perspective of causal world Bayesianism. The author establishes principles for distinguishing options in decision problems, and studies ways in which perfectly rational causal maximizers can be capable of resolute choices. Sobel also views critically Gauthier's revisionist ideas about maximizing rationality. This collection will be a desideratum for anyone working in the field of rational choice theory, whether in philosophy, economics, political science, psychology or statistics. Howard Sobel's work in decision theory is certainly among the most important, interesting and challenging that is being done by philosophers.