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The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

Author: Mr. Pragyan Deb

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-19

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1589063767

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy

Author: Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2021-12-03

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 9781557753540

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We quantify the effect of vaccinations on economic activity in the United States using weekly county level data covering the period end-2020 to mid-2021. Causal effects are identified through instrumenting vaccination rates with county-level pharmacy density interacted with state-level vaccine allocations, and by including county and state-time fixed effects to control for unobserved factors. We find that vaccinations are a significant and substantial shot in the arm of the economy. Specifically, an increase of initiated vaccination rates of 1 percentage point increases weekly consumer spending by 0.6 percent and reduces weekly initial unemployment claims by 0.004 percentage points of the 2019 labor force. Vaccinations also increase workrelated mobility. Importantly, we find that the effects vary with county characteristics. Specifically, urban counties and counties with initially worse socioeconomic conditions and lower education levels exhibit larger effects of vaccinations. This way, vaccinations are also a fair shot in the arm for the economy, which highlights that equitable distribution of vaccines is important to reduce inequality. Our results are specific to the United States, but hold important lessons for the expected economic impact of vaccinations in other countries.

Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending

Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-04-21

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13:

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The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions have reshaped economic activity with abrupt changes in household consumption behavior across the world. This paper provides an empirical investigation of how the COVID-19 vaccine rollout has affected consumer spending at daily frequency using debit and credit card transactions in three European countries. Empirical results show that COVID-19 vaccinations, along with other policy interventions, have mitigated the severe negative impact of the pandemic and boosted consumer spending. First, the vaccination deployment has a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption. Second, other policy responses to the pandemic—designed to contain the spread of the virus and provide support to businesses and households—have significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. Third, the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in terms of stimulating consumer spending appears to be more pronounced on contact-intensive sectors such as services than goods.

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

Author: Pragyan Deb

Publisher:

Published: 2020-08-07

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 9781513550251

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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

The Pandemic Information Gap

Author: Joshua Gans

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 160

ISBN-13: 0262362813

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Why solving the information problem should be at the core of our pandemic response: essential reading about the long-term implications of our current crisis. COVID-19 is caused by a virus. The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a lack of good information. A pandemic is essentially an information problem: this is the enlightening and provocative idea at the heart of this book. If we solve the information problem, argues economist Joshua Gans, we can defeat the virus. For example, when we don't know who is infected, we have to act as if everyone is infected. If we actively manage the information problem--if we know who is infected and with whom they had contact--we can suppress the virus or buy time for vaccine development. This is an expanded version of an eBook originally published as Economics in the Age of COVID-19.

Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics

Author: Johannes Emmerling

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-04-30

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1513582356

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COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity

Author: Nikolay Angelov

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13:

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We use population-wide tax register data to document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax revenues, and sick pay in Sweden. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and our data allows us to run placebo tests. Our findings confirm the large negative effects of the pandemic, but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to COVID-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that the impact on VAT and firm sales was larger than on commonly used industrial and service production indexes, larger than the effect on electricity for industrial use, but less than the effect on excise taxes on air travel. The pandemic's impact on short-term sick pay is large, but unlike tax payments, it does not vary with local infection rates, indicating behavioral responses to more generous rules for sickness insurance during the pandemic.

The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity

Author: Matthew Famiglietti

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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The Economics of Covid-19

Author: Imad A. Moosa

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2021-12-28

Total Pages: 304

ISBN-13: 9781800377219

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This timely book explores the neglected risk in the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, illustrating the ways in which four decades of neoliberal economic and public policy has eroded the functional capacity of states to handle catastrophic events. Challenging the very heart of modern nation states, Imad Moosa comprehensively demonstrates how the pandemic has shed light on existing structural problems that have been ignored by neoliberal governments and policymakers. The author highlights the implications of the pandemic for democracy, militarism and international relations, as well as its impact on healthcare, inequality, human rights, poverty and homelessness. Drawing on theoretical insights and empirical evidence, Moosa emphasises the importance of sustained government intervention in economic activity at a time in which the free market doctrine has failed to restore equilibrium and deliver prosperity after an international financial shock. A radical and decisive intervention in contemporary economic thought, this book is crucial reading for scholars and researchers in economics and political science, particularly those focusing on the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and global economic recovery. The book's empirical insights and key policy recommendations will also benefit policymakers in public health and economics.

The Economic Impacts of COVID-19

Author: Raj Chetty

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the U.S. at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. Using the publicly available data, we show how the COVID- 19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts across subgroups. High-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High-wage workers experienced a "V-shaped" recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by December 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained lower in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the job losses due to the demand shock led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the impacts of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. More broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.