The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures PDF

Author: Pragyan Deb

Publisher:

Published: 2020-08-07

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 9781513550251

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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

The Economic Effect of COVID-19 Containment Measures

The Economic Effect of COVID-19 Containment Measures PDF

Author: Pragyan Deb

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13:

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Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity -- equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stayat- home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures

Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures PDF

Author: Amr Hosny

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-01-28

Total Pages: 49

ISBN-13: 1616357215

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This paper argues that the type of COVID-19 containment measures affects the trade-offs between infection cases, economic activity and sovereign risk. Using local projection methods and a year and a half of high-frequency daily data covering 44 advanced and emerging economies, we find that smart (e.g. testing) as opposed to physical (e.g. lockdown) measures appear to be best placed to tackle these trade-offs. Initial conditions also matter whereby containment measures can be less disruptive when public health response time is fast and public debt is low. We also construct a database of daily fiscal announcements for Euro area countries, and find that sovereign risk is improved under a combination of large support packages and smart measures.

The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity PDF

Author: Mr. Pragyan Deb

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-19

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1589063767

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This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Economic Impact of COVID-19 Containment Policies

Economic Impact of COVID-19 Containment Policies PDF

Author: Xinming Du

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the globe have undertaken multiple policies to control its spread. Yet, only a few studies estimated the cost of COVID-19-related stringency measures on economic output, which can be attributable to the time lag and low frequency of conventional economic data. To bridge this gap in the literature, this paper uses novel high-frequency and spatially granular surface urban heat island (SUHI) data from satellites to quantify the impact of COVID-19-related containment policies in the People's Republic of China, exploiting variations in such policies. Three empirical results emerge. First, we find stringency measures decrease urban heat island in locked cities only marginally, which is equivalent to 0.04-0.05 standard deviation or CNY22.2 billion ($3.6 billion) of economic output drop which is a 0.09% annual gross domestic product decline in 2020. Second, our results suggest that governments have been learning continuously to manage containment measures better. Third, the government's containment policies have generated both positive and negative spillover effects on unlocked cities in which the former effect has dominated the latter.

The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic PDF

Author: Pragyan Deb

Publisher:

Published: 2020-08-07

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 9781513550268

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Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measureshave been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number ofcoronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented bycountries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the"pandemic curve", but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness isenhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, incountries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with alarger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find thateasing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but theeffect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.

Smart Containment: Lessons from Countries with Past Experience

Smart Containment: Lessons from Countries with Past Experience PDF

Author: Alexandra Fotiou

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-04-23

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 151358247X

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Following the Great Lockdown in 2020, it is important to take stock of lessons learned. How effective have different containment measures been in slowing the spread of Covid-19? Have containment measures been costly in terms of economic growth, fiscal balances, and accumulated debt? This paper finds that countries with previous SARS experience acted fast and "smart", and were able to contain the virus by relying mainly on public health measures ─ testing, contact tracing, and public information campaigns ─ rather than stay-at-home requirements. Using past coronavirus outbreaks as an instrumental variable, we show that countries with past experience were able to contain the virus in a smart way, reducing transmission and deaths while also experiencing higher economic growth in 2020.

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