The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment

The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment PDF

Author: Marian Moszoro

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-06

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1513573799

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We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure—electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.

The Employment Impact of Public Investments

The Employment Impact of Public Investments PDF

Author: Joseph R. Ramos

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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Paper on the employment creation effects of public investments in developing countries. Proposes methodology for the measurement of such effects, and includes application of the method to six types of public works projects.

Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth

Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth PDF

Author: Mr.Andrew Berg

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-23

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1513573632

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We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and the amount spent. We show that, in a simple and standard model, increases in public investment spending in inefficient countries do not have a lower impact on growth than in efficient countries, a result confirmed in a simple cross-country regression. This apparently counter-intuitive result, which contrasts with Pritchett (2000) and recent policy analyses, follows directly from the standard assumption that the marginal product of public capital declines with the capital/output ratio. The implication is that efficiency and scarcity of public capital are likely to be inversely related across countries. It follows that both efficiency and the rate of return need to be considered together in assessing the impact of increases in investment, and blanket recommendations against increased public investment spending in inefficient countries need to be reconsidered. Changes in efficiency, in contrast, have direct and potentially powerful impacts on growth: “investing in investing” through structural reforms that increase efficiency, for example, can have very high rates of return.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment PDF

Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-05-04

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484361555

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This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

Das Public Kapital

Das Public Kapital PDF

Author: Selim Elekdag

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-12-17

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1498393675

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Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. While time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened with an accommodative monetary policy stance—as is typical during periods of economic slack. The current low-interest rate environment presents a window of opportunity to finance higher public investment at historically favorable rates.

Public Investment as an Engine of Growth

Public Investment as an Engine of Growth PDF

Author: Mr.Andrew M. Warner

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-11

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 1498378277

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This paper looks at the empirical record whether big infrastructure and public capital drives have succeeded in accelerating economic growth in low-income countries. It looks at big long-lasting drives in public capital spending, as these were arguably clear and exogenous policy decisions. On average the evidence shows only a weak positive association between investment spending and growth and only in the same year, as lagged impacts are not significant. Furthermore, there is little evidence of long term positive impacts. Some individual countries may be exceptions to this general result, as for example Ethiopia in recent years, as high public investment has coincided with high GDP growth, but it is probably too early to draw definitive conclusions. The fact that the positive association is largely instantaneous argues for the importance of either reverse causality, as capital spending tends to be cut in slumps and increased in booms, or Keynesian demand effects, as spending boosts output in the short run. It argues against the importance of long term productivity effects, as these are triggered by the completed investments (which take several years) and not by the mere spending on the investments. In fact a slump in growth rather than a boom has followed many public capital drives of the past. Case studies indicate that public investment drives tend eventually to be financed by borrowing and have been plagued by poor analytics at the time investment projects were chosen, incentive problems and interest-group-infested investment choices. These observations suggest that the current public investment drives will be more likely to succeed if governments do not behave as in the past, and instead take analytical issues seriously and safeguard their decision process against interests that distort public investment decisions.

Output and Employment Effects of Public Policy

Output and Employment Effects of Public Policy PDF

Author: David Alan Aschauer

Publisher:

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Over the past decade, a considerable amount of research has been conducted on the relationship between "public capital" or "infrastructure capital" and economic performance. Since the initial work of Aschauer (1989), researchers have used a variety of data sets to investigate an even wider variety of hypotheses regarding the linkages between public capital and the economy. In particular, many authors have made use of state level data to look at the importance of infrastructure to productivity (e.g., Munnell (1990)), to costs of production in manufacturing sectors (e.g., Holtz-Eakin and Schwartz (1995)). This paper, along with Aschauer (1997b), also makes use of state level data to consider the static and dynamic effects of the provision of public capital on economic growth. The basic notion is that a nonlinear relationship can be expected to arise between the level of the public capital stock-- relative to the private capital stock--and output and employment growth at the state level. This nonlinearity might be due to a variety of reasons. One such reason, given by Barro (1990) and, by extension, Aschauer (1997a), is that the benefits of public capital rise at a diminishing rate but the costs of providing public capital (e.g., through distorting taxation) rise at a constant rate. Another (related) reason, explored in Arrow and Kurz (1970), is that at any particular point in time the aggregate capital stock is misallocated unless the marginal product of public capital equals the marginal product of private capital. Both of these arguments imply that there should exist an output (and, by extension, an employment) growth maximizing level of the public capital stock relative to the private capital stock. For relatively low levels of public capital, increased public investment raises the economic growth rate, but for relatively high levels of public capital, increased public investment decreases growth.

Investment, Growth and Employment

Investment, Growth and Employment PDF

Author: Ciaran Driver

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2005-08-10

Total Pages: 390

ISBN-13: 1134641796

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Investment - in both facilities and know-how - is essential for growth. Economists try to understand the forces that determine investment, but investment behaviour is unruly; often the term animal spirits is used to explain the resulting volatility. This volume presents studies to explain international investment behaviour and assess its impact on growth and jobs. The authors also examine policy measures to reverse the climate of low investment that has characterised recent decades. The contributors examine how well standard models of investment work, the role of finance constraints, the effect of risk and uncertainty, the impact of alternative forms of corporate governance, the forces shaping the adoption of new technology, the impact of foreign direct investment, the effect of investment on the NAIRU and the causal structure of investment and growth. Editors introductions to the different sections of the book provide comprehensive overviews of the main theories of investment, the impact of investment on growth and employment and examine the main questions raised for policy makers.