Strategic Monitor 2015: The return of ghosts hoped past?

Strategic Monitor 2015: The return of ghosts hoped past? PDF

Author: Tim Sweijs

Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Published: 2015-06-10

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 9492102250

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The Return of Ghosts Hoped Past? Global Trends in Conflict and Cooperation, is HCSS’ most recent contribution to the Strategic Monitor and examines the longer-term security impact of these reappearing ghosts. Are the horrific events that dominated news agendas in 2014 - such as the downing of MH-17 and violent acts of IS - isolated incidents or part of a more structural trend? Did the ‘ghosts of the past’ ever really go away? In the report, HCSS addresses recent events and trends in light of overarching patterns of conflict.

The wheel of fortune

The wheel of fortune PDF

Author: Stephan de Spiegeleire

Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Published: 2016-06-24

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 9492102366

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National security starts with strategic anticipation: what are the risks for the Dutch national security? How can the Netherlands prepare for this, and what choices and investments are needed in order to do so?

Security in an Interconnected World

Security in an Interconnected World PDF

Author: ERNST. DIJSTELBLOEM HIRSCH BALLIN (HUUB. DE GOEDE, PETER.)

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-01-01

Total Pages: 188

ISBN-13: 3030376060

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This open access book follows the idea that security policy must be based on strategic analysis. Defence policy and the role of the armed forces can subsequently be determined on the grounds of said analysis. More than ever, internal and external security, and developments both in the Netherlands and abroad are interconnected. The world order is shifting, the cooperation within NATO and the EU is under pressure and the Dutch armed forces are gasping for breath. What is the task of Dutch security and the defence policy? There have been growing calls in the last few years to end the devastating cuts in the defence budget and to invest more in security. The acute threats and conflicts in which the Netherlands are involved have served as a wake-up call. The shooting down of Flight MH17 over Ukraine, the streams of refugees from Syria and other countries, the conflict with Da'esh in Syria and Iraq, and terrorist threats reveal how events in many of the world's flash-points have a direct or indirect impact on the Netherlands. Conflicts in other countries have a spill-over effect in The Netherlands. This is illustrated by tensions between population groups and the clashes over the Gülen schools after the failed putsch in Turkey on 15 July 2016 and over the constitutional referendum in that country. How do we ensure that any additional funds are not divided amongst the branches of the armed forces without any sense of strategic direction? What should a future-proof security policy that plots the course of defence policy entail? What strategic analyses should lie behind the political choices that are made? This book answers these questions and offers a comprehensive framework addressing among other things human security, national security and flow security.

Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation

Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation PDF

Author: Tim Sweijs

Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Published: 2017-02-20

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 9492102463

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Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.

Nowcasting Geodynamics

Nowcasting Geodynamics PDF

Author: Stephan De Spiegeleire

Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Published: 2017-02-20

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 949210248X

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HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

SI VIS PACEM, PARA UTIQUE PACEM

SI VIS PACEM, PARA UTIQUE PACEM PDF

Author: Willem Th. Oosterveld

Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Published: 2015-12-17

Total Pages: 143

ISBN-13: 9492102315

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Analyses of the international security environment typically provide somber overviews of the various drivers and manifestations of conflict and instability around the world. Recent developments such as the terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and elsewhere, a Middle East in flames, a resurgent Russia, incessant violence in West Africa or turmoil in South China Sea only reinforce this view. By framing our analysis of the security environment in these terms, debates about how to anticipate and respond to these current and future threats invariably focus on those forces of instability and conflict: how to identify threats and enemies and then eliminate them. This report is based on the premise that this conflict-centric mindset has led to portfolio choices in terms of strategies (‘what do we do and how do we do it?’), capabilities (‘what do we do it with?’), and partners (‘who do we do it with?’) that have been excessively onesided. This report argues that there is an alternative, complementary way of framing security that is equally real and equally actionable for defense and security organizations (DSOs4 ): a resilience-centric one.

Backpacker

Backpacker PDF

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2007-09

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13:

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Backpacker brings the outdoors straight to the reader's doorstep, inspiring and enabling them to go more places and enjoy nature more often. The authority on active adventure, Backpacker is the world's first GPS-enabled magazine, and the only magazine whose editors personally test the hiking trails, camping gear, and survival tips they publish. Backpacker's Editors' Choice Awards, an industry honor recognizing design, feature and product innovation, has become the gold standard against which all other outdoor-industry awards are measured.

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