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Fundamentals, Speculation, and the Pricing of Crude Oil Futures
Author: Thomas Hoehl
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Published: 2011-11
Total Pages: 89
ISBN-13: 3656047715
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2014-12-12
Total Pages: 34
ISBN-13: 1498303846
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Speculation, Fundamentals, and Oil Prices
Author: Mark Jickling
Publisher:
Published: 2012-05-30
Total Pages: 32
ISBN-13: 9781477566022
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →High oil prices affect nearly every household and business in the United States. During the course of 2008, oil prices doubled to more than $145 per barrel and then fell by 80%. In early 2011, there was a run-up of about 20%, sending gasoline prices to near 2008 highs. Few would rule out the possibility of similar price swings in the months to come. What explains oil price volatility?
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets
Author: Bassam Fattouh
Publisher:
Published: 2012
Total Pages: 25
ISBN-13: 9781907555442
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The Art Of Speculation
Author: Philip L. Carret
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Published: 2015-11-06
Total Pages: 228
ISBN-13: 1786256746
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Philip L. Carret (1896-1998) was a famed investor and founder of The Pioneer Fund (Fidelity Mutual Trust), one of the first Mutual Funds in the United States. A former Barron’s reporter and WWI aviator, Carret launched the Mutual Trust in 1928 after managing money for his friends and family. The initial effort evolved into Pioneer Investments. He ran the fund for 55 years, during which an investment of $10,000 became $8 million. Warren Buffett said of him that he had “the best long term investment record of anyone I know” He is most famous for the long successful track record he achieved investing in Common Stocks and for being one of Warren Buffett’s role models. This book comprises a series of articles written for Barron’s and published in book form in 1930.—Print Ed.
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism
Author: Robert P. Murphy
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Published: 2007-04-09
Total Pages: 206
ISBN-13: 1596986174
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Most commonly accepted economic "facts" are wrong Here's the unvarnished, politically incorrect truth. The liberal media and propagandists masquerading as educators have filled the world--and deformed public policy--with politically correct errors about capitalism and economics in general. In The Politically Incorrect Guide(tm) to Capitalism, myth-busting professor Robert P. Murphy, a scholar and frequent speaker at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, cuts through all their nonsense, shattering liberal myths and fashionable socialist cliches to set the record straight.
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2014-12-12
Total Pages: 34
ISBN-13: 1498333486
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices
Commodity Price Dynamics
Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2011-10-31
Total Pages: 238
ISBN-13: 1139501976
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
