Author: Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 1998-08-01
Total Pages: 35
ISBN-13: 1451854692
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author: Robert P. Flood
Publisher:
Published: 2006
Total Pages: 34
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a quot;first-generation modelquot; of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
Published: 2006-11-01
Total Pages: 401
ISBN-13: 1602060053
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author: Juan Yepez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2010-10-01
Total Pages: 30
ISBN-13: 1455208922
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
Author: Martha Stettinius
Publisher: Dundee-Lakemont Press
Published: 2012-07-23
Total Pages: 400
ISBN-13: 0984932623
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →One in 8 people over age 65 has Alzheimer's disease, and nearly fifty percent of those over age 85. With the passion of a committed daughter and the fervor of a tireless reporter, Martha Stettinius weaves a compelling story of her long journey caregiving for her demented mother with a broad exploration of the causes of dementia, means of treating it, and hopes for preventing it. Her greatest gift to readers is that of optimism that caregiving can deepen love, that dementia can be fought, and that families can be strengthened. Her book is appealing, enlightening, and inspiring. Includes appendices on dementia research; source notes; resources for caregivers; and an index.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
Published: 2015-09-29
Total Pages: 331
ISBN-13: 080413670X
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: J. Sterling Livingston
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
Published: 2009-04-24
Total Pages: 72
ISBN-13: 163369156X
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Numerous studies show that people will rise, or fall, to the level where their superiors believe them capable. As a manager, it is up to you to have high expectations for your employees, and to communicate those expectations to them. In Pygmalion in Management, J. Sterling Livingston urges you to understand the power you have over your subordinates' success, and use it to benefit everyone involved. Since 1922, Harvard Business Review has been a leading source of breakthrough ideas in management practice. The Harvard Business Review Classics series now offers you the opportunity to make these seminal pieces a part of your permanent management library. Each highly readable volume contains a groundbreaking idea that continues to shape best practices and inspire countless managers around the world.
Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2021-10-22
Total Pages: 35
ISBN-13: 1589063953
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Author: Eelco F. M. Wijdicks
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 337
ISBN-13: 0190602651
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Part of the "What Do I Do Now?" series, Neurocritical Care provides insight into interventions in acute neurologic disorders. Using a case-based approach, this volume emphasizes how to handle comparatively common clinical problems emergently.