Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks

Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks PDF

Author: Craig E. Taylor

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-11-11

Total Pages: 164

ISBN-13: 3319194135

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This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation PDF

Author: Prince Boateng

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2017-04-28

Total Pages: 360

ISBN-13: 1787143015

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Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation PDF

Author: Prince Boateng

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2017-04-28

Total Pages: 360

ISBN-13: 1786358301

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Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.

Directions in Modeling Wheat and Maize for Developing Countries

Directions in Modeling Wheat and Maize for Developing Countries PDF

Author: Jeffrey W. White

Publisher: CIMMYT

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 9706480811

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This paper outlines crop improvement, strategic agronomy, and natural resource management research concerns central to CIMMYT¦s mission and which models can help address. Authors also discuss related issues, including model documentation and data management. Although CIMMYT has little comparative advantage in model development per se, the center has much to contribute to others' development and refinement efforts, to the availability of quality data, and to the promotion of models and training in their use, and active participation in these areas will ultimately result in better models for CIMMYT's own aims.

Mega Quakes: Cascading Earthquake Hazards and Compounding Risks

Mega Quakes: Cascading Earthquake Hazards and Compounding Risks PDF

Author: Katsuichiro Goda

Publisher: Frontiers Media SA

Published: 2018-03-15

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 2889454541

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Large-scale earthquake hazards pose major threats to modern society, generating casualties, disrupting socioeconomic activities, and causing enormous economic loss across the world. Events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, highlighted the vulnerability of urban cities to catastrophic earthquakes. Accurate assessment of earthquake-related hazards (both primary and secondary) is essential to mitigate and control disaster risk exposure effectively. To date, various approaches and tools have been developed in different disciplines. However, they are fragmented over a number of research disciplines and underlying assumptions are often inconsistent. Our society and infrastructure are subjected to multiple types of cascading earthquake hazards; therefore, integrated hazard assessment and risk management strategy is needed for mitigating potential consequences due to multi-hazards. Moreover, uncertainty modeling and its impact on hazard prediction and anticipated consequences are essential parts of probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment. The Research Topic is focused upon modeling and impact assessment of cascading earthquake hazards, including mainshock ground shaking, aftershock, tsunami, liquefaction, and landslide.

Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability of Transport Systems

Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability of Transport Systems PDF

Author: Milan Janić

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-11-21

Total Pages: 446

ISBN-13: 3031130405

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This book is focused on the analysis and modelling of resilience, robustness, and vulnerability of transport systems and their complement: reliability. It provides an elaboration on their generic concepts, analysing disruptive events and nature of their impacts. It also offers an analysis and modelling of the system performances and their indicators relevant for the main actors involved. Applications of the models of performances and their resilience, robustness, and vulnerability to the selected cases of road, rail, air, and maritime transport mode affected by different internal and external disruptive events are also presented. By offering readers a systematic and comprehensive way of dealing with the topic of resilience, robustness, and vulnerability of transport systems and their complement, reliability, this book will be of interest to researchers and professionals alike within the transport industry.

Simulation and Optimization in Finance

Simulation and Optimization in Finance PDF

Author: Dessislava A. Pachamanova

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2010-09-23

Total Pages: 786

ISBN-13: 0470882123

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An introduction to the theory and practice of financial simulation and optimization In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the use of simulation and optimization methods in the financial industry. Applications include portfolio allocation, risk management, pricing, and capital budgeting under uncertainty. This accessible guide provides an introduction to the simulation and optimization techniques most widely used in finance, while at the same time offering background on the financial concepts in these applications. In addition, it clarifies difficult concepts in traditional models of uncertainty in finance, and teaches you how to build models with software. It does this by reviewing current simulation and optimization methodology-along with available software-and proceeds with portfolio risk management, modeling of random processes, pricing of financial derivatives, and real options applications. Contains a unique combination of finance theory and rigorous mathematical modeling emphasizing a hands-on approach through implementation with software Highlights not only classical applications, but also more recent developments, such as pricing of mortgage-backed securities Includes models and code in both spreadsheet-based software (@RISK, Solver, Evolver, VBA) and mathematical modeling software (MATLAB) Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Simulation and Optimization Modeling in Finance offers essential guidance on some of the most important topics in financial management.

Prediction and Simulation Methods for Geohazard Mitigation

Prediction and Simulation Methods for Geohazard Mitigation PDF

Author: Fusao Oka

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2009-05-07

Total Pages: 626

ISBN-13: 0203871049

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The last decades have shown a remarkable increase in the number of heavy rains, typhoons and earthquakes. These natural phenomena are the main causes for geohazards. As a result the mitigation of geohazards has become a major research topic in geotechnical engineering, and in recent years simulation-based predictions and monitoring tools have been

MEGA-CRISES

MEGA-CRISES PDF

Author: Ira Helsloot

Publisher: Charles C Thomas Publisher

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 389

ISBN-13: 0398086834

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We live in turbulent times with continents and nations facing ever-heightening risks such as natural disasters, intense and protracted conflicts, terrorism, corporate crises, cyber threats to infrastructures and mega-events. We are witnessing the rise of mega-crises and a new class of adversity with many unknowns. The prospect of mega-crises presents professionals and students in the field of crisis management with four major tasks. First, they should engage in “deep thinking” about the causes of the increasing occurrence of mega-crises. Second, they should identify and work through the dominant trends which complicate contemporary crisis management. Third, they should upgrade institutional crisis management capacity. Fourth, they should improve societal resilience since no institutional complex can mitigate or manage these mega-crisis on its own. This book is divided into four primary parts, each of which looks at one facet of mega-crises. Part I focuses on the concept of a mega-crisis and mega-crisis management; Part II examines crisis management of mega-natural disasters; Part III evaluates crisis management of man-made mega-crises; and Part IV identifies mega-threats and vulnerabilities. Additional major topics include Hurricane Katrina; Hurricane Gustav; the London Bombings; the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks of July 7, 2005; corporate meltdowns; the subprime crisis; the Olympic Games; electricity grids; global climate change; the Dutch Delta; risks to food security; and mega-crises and the Internet. This comprehensive text will provide practitioners and academics with the results of an across-the-board research effort in the prospects, nature, characteristics, and the effects of mega-crises.