Risk Taking and Decision Making

Risk Taking and Decision Making PDF

Author:

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 1998-02

Total Pages: 540

ISBN-13: 0804765073

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Risks are an integral part of complex, high-stakes decisions, and decisionmakers are faced with the unavoidable tasks of assessing risks and forming risk preferences. This is true for all decision domains, including financial, environmental, and foreign policy domains, among others. How well decisionmakers deal with risk affects, to a considerable extent, the quality of their decisions. This book provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the elements that influence risk judgments and preferences. The book has two dimensions: theoretical and comparative-historical. The study of risk-taking behavior has been dominated by the rational choice approach. Instead, the author adopts a socio-cognitive approach involving: a multivariate theory integrating contextual, cognitive, motivational, and personality factors that affect an individual decisionmaker's judgment and preferences; the social interaction and structural effects of the decisionmaking group and its organizational setting; and the role of cultural-societal values and norms that sanction or discourage risk taking behavior. The book's theoretical approach is applied and tested in five historical case studies of foreign military interventions. The richly detailed empirical data on the case studies make them, metaphorically speaking, an ideal laboratory for applying a process-tracing approach in studying judgment and decision processes at varying risk levels. The case studies analyzed are: U.S. interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 (both low risk); Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 (moderate risk): U.S. intervention in Vietnam in 1964-68 (high risk); and Israel's intervention in Lebanon in 1982-83 (high risk).

Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management

Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management PDF

Author: Jeffrey W. Herrmann

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2015-04-06

Total Pages: 355

ISBN-13: 1118919335

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IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.

Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry

Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry PDF

Author: Glenn Koller

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2005-03-30

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 1420035053

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Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i

Decision Making in Risk Management

Decision Making in Risk Management PDF

Author: Christopher O. Cox

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2021-07-25

Total Pages: 125

ISBN-13: 1000416143

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Identifies the quantitative measures to assess behavior induced risks Presents a framework to limit the interpersonal tension of addressing behavioral risks Offers an empirical case study in the oil and gas domain demonstrating use of the framework Addresses the missing dimension of behavior-centric intangible risk factors in current risk identification and management processes Provides a systematic analytical approach to mitigate subjectivity when addressing behavioral risks in projects

Risk Savvy

Risk Savvy PDF

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2015-03-31

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 0143127101

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A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

Risk Taking

Risk Taking PDF

Author: Zur Shapira

Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation

Published: 1995-01-25

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 1610444922

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Classical economic theory assumes that people in risk situations follow a course of action based on a rational, consistent assessment of likely outcomes. But as Zur Shapira demonstrates in Risk Taking, corporate managers consistently stray from the prescribed path into far more subjective territory. Risk Taking offers a critical assessment of the relationship between theory and action in managerial decision making. Shapira offers a definitive account of the classical conception of risky decision making, which derives behavioral prescriptions from a calculation of both the value and the likelihood of possible outcomes. He then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. Risk Taking reports the results of an extensive survey of seven hundred managers that probed their attitudes and beliefs about risk and examined how they had actually made decisions in the face of uncertainty. The picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which each manager's personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Managerial strategies are continually modified to suit changing circumstances. Rather than formulating probability estimates, executives create potential scenarios based not only on the possible outcomes but also on the many arbitrary factors inherent in their own situations. As Shapira notes, risk taking propensities vary among managers, and the need to maintain control and avoid particularly dangerous results exercises a powerful influence. Shapira also examines the impact of organizational structure, long-term management objectives, and incentives on decision making. With perceptive observations of the cognitive, emotional, and organizational dimensions of corporate decision making, Risk Taking propels the study of managerial risk behavior into new directions. This volume signals the way toward improving managerial decision making by revealing the need for more inclusive choice models that augment classical theory with vital behavioral observations.

Construction Risk Management Decision Making

Construction Risk Management Decision Making PDF

Author: Alex C. Arthur

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2021-12-13

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13: 1119693004

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CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Explores the relevance of systems thinking and behavioral science in construction risk management Effective risk management is a vital component of all successful construction projects. Although quantitative tools for evaluating data and minimizing risk are readily available, construction managers commonly adopt a more innate, experience-based approach. In Construction Risk Management Decision Making, project manager and senior consultant Alex C. Arthur provides step-by-step advice on assessing and prioritizing risk using qualitative decision-making systems in the construction industry. Incorporating key theories and concepts from systems thinking and behavioral science, this highly practical guide focuses on the behavior patterns of real people in the industry, rather than complex quantitative techniques and data. Concise, easy-to-understand chapters highlight the current practices of construction risk management while helping readers view risk and decision making from a broader perspective. Throughout the book, the author presents invaluable insights into the ways construction professionals think and behave in the real world. Addresses the actual risk management practices of construction professionals Applies human behavioral theories to the study of construction risk management decision making Illustrates the highly intuitive approaches prevalent in various construction projects Features real-life case studies and practical examples throughout Construction Risk Management Decision Making is an excellent textbook for advanced students in project management, engineering, construction, and surveying courses, and a must-have guide for practitioners of construction management, surveying, and architecture.

Risk Taking

Risk Taking PDF

Author: Herbert S. Kindler

Publisher: Crisp Pub Incorporated

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 83

ISBN-13: 9781560525257

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Risk is everywhere and often avoiding one risk backs us into another. This revised edition looks at the anatomy of decisions in a new way and integrates new studies and information developed over the 8 years since the original publication.

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