Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World

Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World PDF

Author: Zeger Degraeve

Publisher: Dreamtech Press

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 100

ISBN-13: 9788177226867

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making. The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making.

The Art of Decisions

The Art of Decisions PDF

Author: Chris Blake

Publisher: FT Press

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 274

ISBN-13: 0137017103

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions! How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don't past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making-and helps you optimize every decision you make. Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that's nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck. Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you'll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You'll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming. You're human. You'll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there. * Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold'em What to do about the risks and randomness you can't eliminate * Follow your instinct or follow the rules? When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it * Know when it's time to decide How to know when you know enough * Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments Hire a guide or make a map?

You Are What You Risk

You Are What You Risk PDF

Author: Michele Wucker

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2021-04-06

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 1643136798

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The #1 international bestselling author of The Gray Rhino offers a bold new framework for understanding and re-shaping our relationship with risk and uncertainty to live more productive and successful lives. What drives a sixty-four-year-old woman to hurl herself over Niagara Falls in a barrel? Why do we often create bigger risks than the risks we try to avoid? Why are corporate boards newly worried about risky personal behavior by CEOs? Why are some nations quicker than others to recognize and manage risks like pandemics, technological change, and climate crisis? The answers define each person, organization, and society as distinctively as a fingerprint. Understanding the often-surprising origins of these risk fingerprints can open your eyes, inspire new habits, catalyze innovation and creativity, improve teamwork, and provide a beacon in a world that seems suddenly more uncertain than ever. How you see risk and what you do about it depend on your personality and experiences. How you make these cost-benefit calculations depend on your culture, your values, the people in the room, and even unexpected things like what you’ve eaten recently, the temperature, the music playing, or the fragrance in the air. Being alert to these often-unconscious influences will help you to seize opportunity and avoid danger. You Are What You Risk is a clarion call for an entirely new conversation about our relationship with risk and uncertainty. In this ground-breaking, accessible and eminently timely book, Michele Wucker examines why it’s so important to understand your risk fingerprint and how to make your risk relationship work better in business, life, and the world. Drawing on compelling risk stories around the world and weaving in economics, anthropology, sociology, and psychology research, Wucker bridges the divide between professional and lay risk conversations. She challenges stereotypes about risk attitudes, re-frames how gender and risk are related, and shines new light on generational differences. She shows how the new science of “risk personality” is re-shaping business and finance, how healthy risk ecosystems support economies and societies, and why embracing risk empathy can resolve conflicts. Wucker shares insights, practical tools, and proven strategies that will help you to understand what makes you who you are –and, in turn, to make better choices, both big and small.

Reckoning with Risk

Reckoning with Risk PDF

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: Penguin UK

Published: 2003-04-24

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 0140297863

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Risk Savvy

Risk Savvy PDF

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2015-03-31

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 0143127101

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

On the Move to Meaningful Internet Systems: OTM 2010

On the Move to Meaningful Internet Systems: OTM 2010 PDF

Author: Robert Meersman

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2010-10-29

Total Pages: 737

ISBN-13: 3642169600

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This volume constitutes the refereed proceedings of 11 international workshops held as part of OTM 2010 in Hersonissos, Greece in October 2010. The 68 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from a total of 127 submissions to the workshops. The volume starts with 14 poster papers of the OTM 2010 main conferences COOPIS 2010, DOA 2010 and OSBASE 2010. Topics of the workshop papers are adaption in service-oriented architectures, ambient intelligence and reasoning, data integration approaches, modeling in ADI, web and enterprise data visualization, enterprise integration and semantics, industrial enterprise interoperability and networking, process management in distributed information system development, improving social networking, ontology engineering, master data management and metamodeling, extensions to fact-oriented modeling, logic and derivation, patterns in input data models.

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World PDF

Author: Reid Hastie

Publisher: SAGE

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 393

ISBN-13: 1412959039

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast PDF

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2006-10-09

Total Pages: 124

ISBN-13: 0309180538

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

The Ethics of Risk

The Ethics of Risk PDF

Author: S. Hansson

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2013-09-20

Total Pages: 284

ISBN-13: 1137333650

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

When is it morally acceptable to expose others to risk? Most moral philosophers have had very little to say in answer to that question, but here is a moral philosopher who puts it at the centre of his investigations.

Principles of Risk Analysis

Principles of Risk Analysis PDF

Author: Charles Yoe

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2016-04-19

Total Pages: 576

ISBN-13: 1439857504

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i