Republic of South Sudan: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report

Republic of South Sudan: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report PDF

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-11-15

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 1557755140

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A 9-month Staff Monitored Program (SMP) combined with a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota (about US$174 million) was approved on March 30, 2021 to address BOP challenges and build a track record towards an upper credit tranche financial arrangement. This followed a disbursement under the RCF in November 2020 of 15 percent of quota (about US$52 million), which was the first-ever financial disbursement from the Fund to South Sudan. Progress has continued in implementing the revitalized peace agreement of 2018: following the formation of a unity government in February 2020 and the appointment of state governors in June 2020, the national parliament was sworn into office in August 2021. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with about 60 percent of the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity.

Republic of South Sudan

Republic of South Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-03-09

Total Pages: 100

ISBN-13:

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Dire and deteriorating humanitarian situation. About two-thirds of South Sudan’s population is experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level since independence. This is a result of multiple compounding factors, including severe multi-year floods due to climate shocks, inter-communal violence in parts of the country, and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine that is contributing to high global food and fuel prices.

Sudan

Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-04-21

Total Pages: 67

ISBN-13: 1513572849

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The transitional government embarked on an IMF-supported Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in 2020 to help address major macroeconomic imbalances caused by decades of mismanagement, lay the groundwork for inclusive growth, and establish a track record of sound policies required for eventual HIPC debt relief. The challenges facing the authorities remain significant, but there have been improvements in both the domestic and external environment. International efforts to support Sudan have gained momentum and were bolstered by the removal of Sudan from the U.S. list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSTL), and the identification of bridge financiers for Sudan’s arrears clearance to IDA and the African Development Bank (AfDB). Meanwhile, the government has moved forward on important structural reforms, and on February 8, 2021 the signatories to the October peace agreement were brought into a newly formed cabinet which reaffirmed its commitment to the economic reform program.

Republic of South Sudan

Republic of South Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-04-02

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1513576453

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South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country. After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to an agreement for power-sharing in September 2018 and formed a unity government in February 2020. However, peace remains fragile in the face of difficult humanitarian and economic conditions. Already very high levels of poverty and food insecurity have been exacerbated by severe flooding in recent months. The floods (the worst in 60 years) have killed livestock, destroyed food stocks, and damaged crops ahead of the main harvest season. South Sudan’s economy has been hit hard by lower international oil prices following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Republic of South Sudan

Republic of South Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-06-10

Total Pages: 108

ISBN-13:

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South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country, and one of the most vulnerable in the world to climate change effects. The spillovers from the fighting in Sudan have exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation. Two-thirds of South Sudan’s population was exposed to acute food insecurity prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Sudan and the situation has worsened due to a large and growing number of refugees, and a sharp increase in fuel and food prices in the border areas with Sudan driven by trade disruptions. The Sudan war has also delayed the needed repair of the pipeline that transports South Sudan’s crude oil to international markets through Sudan. As a result, oil exports have since mid-February 2024 collapsed to about one-third of their previous level. This has increased significantly the fiscal financing and balance of payments gaps given that oil exports account for nearly 90 percent of fiscal revenues and 95 percent of exports. National elections, the first-ever since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, are scheduled for December 2024. However, due to delays in and operationalizing key election-related institutions development partners have expressed skepticism that free and fair elections will be feasible by the envisaged date.

Sudan

Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-07-15

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1498326005

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: Sudan is a fragile state mired in a heavy debt burden, international sanctions, and volatile domestic and regional political environments. These problems, together with limited revenue mobilization, are constraining Sudan’s growth prospects and poverty reduction efforts. The economic situation worsened following the secession of South Sudan in 2011, resulting in the buildup of large economic imbalances. The authorities have embarked on a stabilization program and are expecting that a return of peace in South Sudan will ensure continuation of oil flows, which are crucial for sustaining the government renewed adjustment process resumed last September. Focus of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP): In the attached Letter of Intent, dated March 7, 2014, the authorities requested a new SMP covering the period January– December, 2014. The objective of the SMP is to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen social safety nets, and develop the required reforms to refocus the economy on its non- resource sector and lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth. Risks to the SMP: Risks are mainly tilted to the downside. The social unrest that followed the announcement of the policy measures in September 2013 has abated, but the situation remains fragile. Security conditions remain volatile in several parts of the country, and the current standoff in South Sudan may hinder the flow of oil to Port Sudan. Furthermore, the forthcoming presidential elections in 2015 is already fueling political uncertainty, and complicating the economic policy-making process. Policy recommendations: The main recommendations from the 2013 Article IV consultation were: (i) a fiscal adjustment in the context of the 2014 budget framed in a medium-term strategy, including a gradual phasing-out of fuel subsidies, and a strengthening of social safety nets; (ii) a tighter monetary stance to contain inflation and lessen exchange rate pressures; (iii) further exchange rate flexibility to improve external competitiveness; and (iv) improvement of the business environment to boost private sector- led growth. Debt relief prospects: Relief is predicated on reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and establishing a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments. Arrears to the Fund: Sudan has been in arrears to the Fund since July 1984. As of end- February 2014, those arrears amounted to SDR 981.5 million.

Sudan

Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-28

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1484375211

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KEY ISSUES Political Context: Sudan is embarking on a difficult national dialogue with the opposition and some armed groups in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan regions. The objective is to break the current destructive cycle of instability and prepare for the upcoming presidential election in 2015. This dialogue, if successful, could help create the conditions needed to address the challenges that emerged after the secession of South Sudan, including sustaining a much-needed broad economic recovery and adjusting the economy to its new potential. The current staff monitored program (SMP) is providing an adequate policy framework and a path in this direction. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Tight monetary conditions and improved fiscal performance, together with lower food prices, contributed to lower inflation at end-March. However, the curb market exchange rate further depreciated against the U.S. dollar on account of the uncertainties in the oil market triggered by the South Sudan conflict, further widening the gap between the official and curb market rates to more than 50 percent. The outlook for 2014 remains broadly favorable, with growth expected to reach 2.5 percent, and inflation to continue its downward trend to about 18 percent. Program performance: Performance under the SMP through end-March 2014 was affected by adverse shocks and security spillovers. All end-March quantitative benchmarks were met, except for the ones on net international reserves and net domestic assets of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS). The indicative targets on social spending and the non-oil primary deficit were also missed by a slight margin. Corrective actions have been taken to ensure that these targets will be met in the second quarter. Urgent measures are needed to address the gap between the official and curb market exchange rates. The authorities have also made good progress toward meeting their end-June structural benchmarks. Risks remain large and tilted to the downside. The uncertain political transition, the volatile domestic oil market, and the fragile security environment may slow down the reform momentum. The recent peace agreement between the warring factions in South Sudan, if implemented, would improve the risk outlook.

Sudan

Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-29

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1498336876

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KEY ISSUES Political Context: Sudan is embarking on a difficult national dialogue with the opposition and some armed groups in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan regions. The objective is to break the current destructive cycle of instability and prepare for the upcoming presidential election in 2015. This dialogue, if successful, could help create the conditions needed to address the challenges that emerged after the secession of South Sudan, including sustaining a much-needed broad economic recovery and adjusting the economy to its new potential. The current staff monitored program (SMP) is providing an adequate policy framework and a path in this direction. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Tight monetary conditions and improved fiscal performance, together with lower food prices, contributed to lower inflation at end-March. However, the curb market exchange rate further depreciated against the U.S. dollar on account of the uncertainties in the oil market triggered by the South Sudan conflict, further widening the gap between the official and curb market rates to more than 50 percent. The outlook for 2014 remains broadly favorable, with growth expected to reach 2.5 percent, and inflation to continue its downward trend to about 18 percent. Program performance: Performance under the SMP through end-March 2014 was affected by adverse shocks and security spillovers. All end-March quantitative benchmarks were met, except for the ones on net international reserves and net domestic assets of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS). The indicative targets on social spending and the non-oil primary deficit were also missed by a slight margin. Corrective actions have been taken to ensure that these targets will be met in the second quarter. Urgent measures are needed to address the gap between the official and curb market exchange rates. The authorities have also made good progress toward meeting their end-June structural benchmarks. Risks remain large and tilted to the downside. The uncertain political transition, the volatile domestic oil market, and the fragile security environment may slow down the reform momentum. The recent peace agreement between the warring factions in South Sudan, if implemented, would improve the risk outlook.

Sudan: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program and Request for Extension-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan

Sudan: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program and Request for Extension-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-06-30

Total Pages: 65

ISBN-13: 1513586823

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The transitional government embarked on a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in 2020 to help address major macroeconomic imbalances caused by decades of mismanagement, lay the groundwork for inclusive growth, and establish a track record of sound policies required for eventual HIPC debt relief. The economic challenges facing the authorities remain significant and have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, but there have been improvements in both the domestic and external environment. Sudan has cleared its arrears to the World Bank and African Development Bank thereby regaining access to multilateral grant funding. A financing package for the clearance of arrears to the IMF has been identified, and on May 17, 2021 a development partner conference was held in Paris with a side event to promote investment in Sudan.

Sudan

Sudan PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher:

Published: 2020-10-23

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 9781513559803

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The transitional government has requested a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) to help address major macro imbalances, lay the groundwork for inclusive growth, and establish a track record of sound policies that is a requirement for eventual HIPC debt relief. Major challenges lie ahead. Economic contraction since 2018 is set to intensify sharply in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal and external imbalances are large, inflation is high and rising, the currency is overvalued, and competitiveness is weak. The humanitarian situation is dire with large numbers of internally displaced people and refugees. Despite the desperate situation, Sudan cannot access Fund financial assistance on account of (i) arrears to the Fund, (ii) arrears to other IFIs and other creditors, and (iii) unsustainably large external debt. Sudan remains on the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list (SSTL), which effectively hinders progress toward HIPC debt relief. While there is broad agreement between the authorities and staff about the key reform priorities, public tolerance for painful reforms is fragile given prolonged economic hardship. Notably, donor financial assistance has been well short of the amounts needed to facilitate gradual orderly adjustment. Hence, risks to the SMP are high.

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