Lanterna Rally

Author: Sze-Dai Pang

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

The statistics of safety factors and structural reliability has so far been generally regarded as independent of mechanics, but further progress requires the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of structural strength to be derived from the thermomechanics of bond breaks. The cdf of strength of quasibrittle structures of positive geometry is modelled as series coupling of representative volume elements (RVE), each of which is statistically represented by a hierarchical model, connecting to the nano-scale of atomic lattice. Based on Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of thermal energies of atoms, the cdf of strength of a nano-scale connection is deduced from the stress dependence of the interatomic activation energy barriers, and is expressed as a function of absolute temperature and stress-duration (or loading rate). The power-law tail exponent, which is 1 on the atomistic scale, is raised by the hierarchical statistical model to exponent m = 10 to 50, representing the Weibull modulus on the structural scale. Its physical meaning is shown to be the minimum number of cuts needed to separate the hierarchical model into two separate parts, which should be equal to the number of dominant cracks needed to break the RVE, governed by the packing of inhomogeneities. On the RVE scale, the model yields a broad Gaussian core, onto which a short power-law tail of exponent m is grafted. The model predicts how the grafted cdf depends on T and t* and provides a physical proof that, on a large enough scale, quasibrittle structures must follow Weibull distribution with a zero threshold. Experimental histograms with kinks, which were previously thought to require the use of a finite threshold, are shown to be fitted much better by the present chain-of-RVEs model. For not too small structures, the model is also shown to be essentially a discrete equivalent of the previously developed nonlocal Weibull theory. The theory indicates the need to refine the reliability indices and identify the common errors in applying Weibull statistical theory to scatter and size effect of quasibrittle structures. Stochastic finite element method is proposed to conduct computer simulations of extreme value statistics, crucial for safe design of structures.