Predicting the Next President

Predicting the Next President PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2024-07-01

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13:

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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Professor Allan Lichtman’s method for predicting the winners of the U.S. popular votes since 1984. The 13 keys to the White House

Professor Allan Lichtman’s method for predicting the winners of the U.S. popular votes since 1984. The 13 keys to the White House PDF

Author: Tim Nienaber

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2020-08-05

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 3346219291

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Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Politics - Region: USA, University of Bonn, language: English, abstract: This paper will focus on what Lichtman calls the "Thirteen Keys to the White House" and how he used them to predict the outcomes of the last nine presidential elections. To do so, his book "The Keys to the White House" which was firstly published in 1996 is required as the main source for the following steps that will serve as the leading topics of each chapter of this paper. The first chapter will briefly summarize and explain Lichtman’s thirteen keys and how they were determined as critical indicators for predicting the winner of a presidential election. In a second step and therefore in the second chapter the focus will lie on how Lichtman decided whether a key applied to a residing President or not, especially regarding certain keys which cannot be answered simply because of extraordinary circumstances surrounding particular candidates of the various presidential elections since 1984. As Lichtman stated that the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald J. Trump and Democratic candidate and former First Lady of the United States Hillary Clinton was the hardest election to predict, a third chapter will focus on the reasons for that. Additionally, the chapter will try to apply the keys to a new election by assuming that Donald Trump will run for office again.

The Keys to the White House

The Keys to the White House PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Lexington Books

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 9780739112656

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Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.

Predicting the Next President

Predicting the Next President PDF

Author: Allan Lichtman

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2020-08-07

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 1538148668

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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections, Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Lichtman applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Prejudice and the Old Politics

Prejudice and the Old Politics PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Lexington Books

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 396

ISBN-13: 9780739101261

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Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: Madison Books

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780819187512

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The revolutionary system that reveals how presidential elections really work from the civil war to the 21st century. As controversial as it is compelling this book fundamentally alters our understanding of presidential politics.

FDR and the Jews

FDR and the Jews PDF

Author: Richard Breitman

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 2013-03-19

Total Pages: 459

ISBN-13: 0674073673

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A contentious debate lingers over whether Franklin Delano Roosevelt turned his back on the Jews of Hitler’s Europe. FDR and the Jews reveals a concerned leader whose efforts on behalf of Jews were far greater than those of any other world figure but whose moral leadership was tempered by the political realities of depression and war.

Comparative Constitutional Law

Comparative Constitutional Law PDF

Author: Tom Ginsburg

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2011-01-01

Total Pages: 681

ISBN-13: 0857931210

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This landmark volume of specially commissioned, original contributions by top international scholars organizes the issues and controversies of the rich and rapidly maturing field of comparative constitutional law. Divided into sections on constitutional design and redesign, identity, structure, individual rights and state duties, courts and constitutional interpretation, this comprehensive volume covers over 100 countries as well as a range of approaches to the boundaries of constitutional law. While some chapters reference the text of legal instruments expressly labeled constitutional, others focus on the idea of entrenchment or take a more functional approach. Challenging the current boundaries of the field, the contributors offer diverse perspectives - cultural, historical and institutional - as well as suggestions for future research. A unique and enlightening volume, Comparative Constitutional Law is an essential resource for students and scholars of the subject.

Predicting the Next President

Predicting the Next President PDF

Author: Allan J Lichtman

Publisher:

Published: 2024-07

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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In the days after Donald Trump's unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump's win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

The Case for Impeachment

The Case for Impeachment PDF

Author: Allan J. Lichtman

Publisher: HarperCollins

Published: 2017-04-18

Total Pages: 190

ISBN-13: 0062696831

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NATIONAL BESTSELLER “Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year.” —The Hill What are the ranges and limitations of presidential authority? What are the standards of truthfulness that a president must uphold? What will it take to impeach Donald J. Trump? Professor Allan J. Lichtman, who has correctly forecasted thirty years of presidential outcomes, answers these questions, and more, in TheCase for Impeachment—a deeply convincing argument for impeaching the 45th president of the United States. In the fall of 2016, Allan J. Lichtman made headlines when he predicted that Donald J. Trump would defeat the heavily favored Democrat, Hillary Clinton, to win the presidential election. Now, in clear, nonpartisan terms, Lichtman lays out the reasons Congress could remove Trump from the Oval Office: his ties to Russia before and after the election, the complicated financial conflicts of interest at home and abroad, and his abuse of executive authority. The Case for Impeachment also offers a fascinating look at presidential impeachments throughout American history, including the often-overlooked story of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment, details about Richard Nixon’s resignation, and Bill Clinton’s hearings. Lichtman shows how Trump exhibits many of the flaws (and more) that have doomed past presidents. As the Nixon Administration dismissed the reporting of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein as “character assassination” and “a vicious abuse of the journalistic process,” Trump has attacked the “dishonest media,” claiming, “the press should be ashamed of themselves.” Historians, legal scholars, and politicians alike agree: we are in politically uncharted waters—the durability of our institutions is being undermined and the public’s confidence in them is eroding, threatening American democracy itself. Most citizens—politics aside—want to know where the country is headed. Lichtman argues, with clarity and power, that for Donald Trump’s presidency, smoke has become fire.