-PDF Download- Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition EBOOK

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author: Roger B. Myerson

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2019-12-17

Total Pages: 569

ISBN-13: 0262043122

An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions

Author: Roger B. Myerson

Publisher: Duxbury Press

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 397

ISBN-13: 9780534423810

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.

Probability Models and Applications

Author: Ingram Olkin

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 732

ISBN-13: 9789813202054

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Project Economics and Decision Analysis

Author: Mohammed A. Mian

Publisher: Pennwell Corporation

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 426

ISBN-13: 9781593702090

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

In Volume 2: Probabilistic Models, author M. A. Mian presents the concepts of decision analysis, incorporating risk and uncertainty as applied to capital investments. In the expanded and updated second edition of Volume 2, Mian integrates new advancements and clarifies concepts to facilitate their understanding. Each topic is introduced, followed by a brief discussion related to its application in practice and a solved example. Includes a companion CD with applications, spreadsheets, and tables that expand the practical application of the book's material.

Understanding Probability Models

Author: Carlos Narciso Bouza Herrera

Publisher: Nova Science Publishers

Published: 2020-03

Total Pages: 219

ISBN-13: 9781536169959

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This book intends to highlight how the Theory of Probability supports, not only statistical modeling but how it allows describing different real life phenomena. It gives clues for understanding the philosophic roots of probability and how they are present in different areas of knowledge. The readers may use the book as a source for understanding the philosophical development of probability concepts and of the intents to obtain mathematical models. The chapters deal with the understanding of how probability models are usable for determining: â¢A Probabilistic model of the best flight value for the design on paper of a helicopter â¢How to model the improvement of the behavior of water heating systems and of the reliability of systems â¢Models for determining the probability of non responses in inquiries and to evaluate the missing data. â¢The modeling of various problems related with the behavior of ordering models of use in decision rules and of general properties of Order Statistics. â¢A unified study of the probabilistic aspects of two Metaheuristics: Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search. â¢How to obtain the identification of econometric techniques for dealing efficiently with the study of economic growth models under endogeneity. This book will be of interest for biometricians, statisticians, economists, engineers dealing with control and reliability, as well for informaticians.

Probability Models of Collective Decision Making

Author: Richard G. Niemi

Publisher: Merrill Publishing Company

Published: 1972

Total Pages: 440

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Probability Models

Author: John Haigh

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2013-07-14

Total Pages: 287

ISBN-13: 9781447153429

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise. Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This popular second edition textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded. Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Models is designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.

Strategic Economic Decision-Making

Author: Jeff Grover

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-05

Total Pages: 122

ISBN-13: 1461460409

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems is a quick primer on the topic that introduces readers to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time. This brief is meant for non-statisticians who are unfamiliar with Bayes’ theorem, walking them through the theoretical phases of set and sample set selection, the axioms of probability, probability theory as it pertains to Bayes’ theorem, and posterior probabilities. All of these concepts are explained as they appear in the methodology of fitting a Bayes’ model, and upon completion of the text readers will be able to mathematically determine posterior probabilities of multiple independent nodes across any system available for study. Very little has been published in the area of discrete Bayes’ theory, and this brief will appeal to non-statisticians conducting research in the fields of engineering, computing, life sciences, and social sciences.

Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

Author: Jean-Paul Chavas

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2004-06-04

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 0121706214

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel

Introduction to Probability Models

Author: Wayne L. Winston

Publisher: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company

Published: 2003-06-01

Total Pages: 752

ISBN-13: 9780534423599

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This text, the second volume of Wayne Winston's successful OPERATIONS RESEARCH: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, FOURTH EDITION, covers topics in Probability Models and addresses the substantial contribution of Probability Modeling in the last five years to the fields of financial engineering, computational simulation and manufacturing. The specific attention to probability models with the addition of recent practical breakthroughs makes this the first text to introduce these ideas together at an accessible level.