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Presidential Upsets

Author: Douglas J. Clouatre

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 2013-01-09

Total Pages: 401

ISBN-13: 1440828679

This unique book examines election upsets in American presidential campaigns, offers in-depth analysis of several surprising election results, and explains why the front-running candidate lost. Controversial and unexpected presidential election results have occurred throughout American history. Presidential Upsets: Dark Horses, Underdogs, and Corrupt Bargains carefully examines eleven presidential upsets spread across two centuries of American history, ranking these election upsets by order of magnitude and allowing readers to compare the issues and processes of American elections. After an introductory chapter that establishes the factors that contribute to a presidential upset, such as the comparative advantages of candidates, the issues facing the candidates and electorate, and the political environment during the election, the book offers in-depth analysis of notable surprise election results and explains why the front-running candidate lost. Each major period of American history—such as the Jacksonian period, the Antebellum era, Reconstruction, World War I, the Cold War era, and the post-Cold War era—is covered. The author utilizes primary and secondary sources of material to provide contemporary and historical analysis of these elections, and bases his analysis upon criteria used by political scientists to predict presidential election results.

Lost in a Gallup

Author: W. Joseph Campbell

Publisher: Univ of California Press

Published: 2024-02-20

Total Pages: 366

ISBN-13: 0520397827

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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Lost in a Gallup

Author: W. Joseph Campbell

Publisher: Univ of California Press

Published: 2020-08-25

Total Pages: 365

ISBN-13: 0520972139

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A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think. Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling’s checkered record in elections has rarely been considered in detail and, until now, has never been addressed collectively. Polling embarrassments are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides occurred; they have indicated the wrong winner in closer elections; state polls have confounded expected national outcomes. Exit polling has thrown Election Day into confusion. The work of venerable pollsters has been singularly and memorably in error. It is a rare presidential election not to be marred by polling controversies. Lost in a Gallup casts a critical eye on major figures in election polling such as George Gallup, a prickly founding father of public opinion research. The book also considers the polling innovations of Warren Mitofsky, whose admonition rings true across generations: “There’s a lot of room for humility in polling. Every time you get cocky, you lose.” Lost in a Gallup examines how polling failure often equates to journalistic failure. Historically, poll-bashing was quite pronounced among prominent journalists, including well-known newspaper columnists such as Mike Royko in Chicago and Jimmy Breslin in New York. They and other journalists challenged the presumption that polls could accurately measure or interpret what the public was thinking. Even so, polls drive news media narratives about presidential elections, shaping conventional wisdom about how competitive those races are. As Lost in a Gallup makes clear, polls are not always in error. But when they fail, they can fail in surprising ways.

Dear Bess

Author: Harry S. Truman

Publisher: University of Missouri Press

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 614

ISBN-13: 9780826212030

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This correspondence, which encompasses Truman's courtship of his wife, his service in the senate, his presidency, and after, reveals not only the character of Truman's mind but also a shrewd observer's view of American politics.

Camelot's End

Author: Jon Ward

Publisher: Twelve

Published: 2019-01-22

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13: 1455591378

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From a strange, dark chapter in American political history comes the captivating story of Ted Kennedy's 1980 campaign for president against the incumbent Jimmy Carter, told in full for the first time. The Carter presidency was on life support. The Democrats, desperate to keep power and yearning to resurrect former glory, turned to Kennedy. And so, 1980 became a civil war. It was the last time an American president received a serious reelection challenge from inside his own party, the last contested convention, and the last all-out floor fight, where political combatants fought in real time to decide who would be the nominee. It was the last gasp of an outdated system, an insider's game that old Kennedy hands thought they had mastered, and the year that marked the unraveling of the Democratic Party as America had known it. Camelot's End details the incredible drama of Kennedy's challenge -- what led to it, how it unfolded, and its lasting effects -- with cinematic sweep. It is a story about what happened to the Democratic Party when the country's long string of successes, luck, and global dominance following World War II ran its course, and how, on a quest to recapture the magic of JFK, Democrats plunged themselves into an intra-party civil war. And, at its heart, Camelot's End is the tale of two extraordinary and deeply flawed men: Teddy Kennedy, one of the nation's greatest lawmakers, a man of flaws and of great character; and Jimmy Carter, a politically tenacious but frequently underestimated trailblazer. Comprehensive and nuanced, featuring new interviews with major party leaders and behind-the-scenes revelations from the time, Camelot's End presents both Kennedy and Carter in a new light, and takes readers deep inside a dark chapter in American political history.

Outnumbered

Author: Cormac O'Brien

Publisher: Quarto Publishing Group USA

Published: 2010-05-01

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 161673843X

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Fourteen dramatic stories of troops outnumbered but not outmatched—from Hannibal’s Carthaginians to the English at Agincourt to the Red Army in WWII. Even a commander as fearless, self-assured, and battle-hardened as Alexander the Great, leading 40,000 Macedonian troops, must have quailed at the sight that met him as he neared the village of Issus, Asia Minor, in 333 BCE: an unexpectedly and unimaginably vast Persian force of some 100,000 men, spanning the Mediterranean coastal plain as far as the eye could see. For warfare had already demonstrated, and has confirmed ever since, that numerical superiority consistently carries the day. And yet, every once in a while, such lopsided engagements have had an unexpected outcome, and proved to be a crucible in which great leaders, and history, are forged. Outnumbered chronicles fourteen momentous occasions on which a smaller, ostensibly weaker force prevailed in an epochal confrontation. Thus, Alexander, undaunted, devised a brilliant and daring plan that disoriented and destroyed the Persian force and, consequently, its empire. Likewise, during the US Civil War, Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee, despite being out-positioned and outnumbered more than two to one by Union forces at Chancellorsville, Virginia, hatched an audacious and surprise strategy that caught his enemy completely unawares. Other equally unexpected, era-defining victories are shown to have derived from the devastating deployment of unusual weaponry, sheer good fortune, or even the gullibility of an enemy, as when Yamashita Tomoyuki, commander of 35,000 ill-supplied Japanese troops, convinced the 85,000-strong British Commonwealth army to surrender Singapore in 1942. Together these accounts constitute an enthralling survey that captures the excitement and terrors of battle, while highlighting the unpredictable nature of warfare and the courage and ingenuity of inspired, and inspiring, military leaders who, even when the odds seemed insurmountable, found a path to glory. “There are similar titles about decisive battles and interesting campaigns, but none quite like this . . . an appealing choice for many military history enthusiasts.” —Library Journal Includes color illustrations and maps

Eisenhower 1956

Author: David A. Nichols

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2012-02-14

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 1439139342

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Draws on hundreds of newly declassified documents to present an account of the Suez crisis that reveals the considerable danger it posed as well as the influence of Eisenhower's health problems and the 1956 election campaign.

Presidents and Civil Liberties from Wilson to Obama

Author: Samuel Walker

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2012-04-16

Total Pages: 569

ISBN-13: 1107379245

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This book is a history of the civil liberties records of American presidents from Woodrow Wilson to Barack Obama. It examines the full range of civil liberties issues: First Amendment rights of freedom of speech, press and assembly; due process; equal protection, including racial justice, women's rights, and lesbian and gay rights; privacy rights, including reproductive freedom; and national security issues. The book argues that presidents have not protected or advanced civil liberties, and that several have perpetrated some of the worst violations. Some Democratic presidents (Wilson and Roosevelt), moreover, have violated civil liberties as badly as some Republican presidents (Nixon and Bush). This is the first book to examine the full civil liberties records of each president (thus, placing a president's record on civil rights with his record on national security issues), and also to compare the performance on particular issues of all the presidents covered.

Presidents' Most Wanted™

Author: Nick Ragone

Publisher: Potomac Books, Inc.

Published: 2008-01-31

Total Pages: 291

ISBN-13: 1597973408

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The presidency is a special office. Along with the vice president, the victorious candidate is our only nationally elected official, and the position has come to symbolize American government worldwide. In many ways, the office is greater than the people who have occupied it. In the 200-plus years of our nation’s history, the presidency has grown and evolved dramatically. With the exception of Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Jackson, the nineteenth-century office holders exerted little executive power and mostly deferred to Congress on domestic affairs. Teddy Roosevelt began to change all that, and FDR completed the transformation with his New Deal, laying the foundations for the modern presidency. With the onset of the Cold War, the “imperial” presidency was in full bloom, and after a brief lull, the government’s response to the war on terror has given the office new and unprecedented powers. Undoubtedly now the presidency is not only the most powerful and important job in the United States, but arguably in the world. Presidents’ Most Wanted™ celebrates the office, the people who inhabited it, and the process of winning it, with thirty-five chapters packed full of all sorts of presidential trivia. It covers everything from elections to first ladies to blunders and triumphs, and gives the reader an in-depth look at the most powerful person in the world.

The World of Antebellum America [2 volumes]

Author: Alexandra Kindell

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 2018-09-20

Total Pages: 839

ISBN-13:

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This set provides insight into the lives of ordinary Americans free and enslaved, in farms and cities, in the North and the South, who lived during the years of 1815 to 1860. Throughout the Antebellum Era resonated the theme of change: migration, urban growth, the economy, and the growing divide between North and South all led to great changes to which Americans had to respond. By gathering the important aspects of antebellum Americans' lives into an encyclopedia, The World of Antebellum America provides readers with the opportunity to understand how people across America lived and worked, what politics meant to them, and how they shaped or were shaped by economics. Entries on simple topics such as bread and biscuits explore workers' need for calories, the role of agriculture, and gendered divisions of labor, while entries on more complex topics, such as aging and death, disclose Americans' feelings about life itself. Collectively, the entries pull the reader into the lives of ordinary Americans, while section introductions tie together the entries and provide an overarching narrative that primes readers to understand key concepts about antebellum America before delving into Americans' lives in detail.