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Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation and Ensembles

Author: Michael Siek

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2011-12-16

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 041562102X

Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas in the world to avoid and mitigate its destructive impacts. For this purpose the physically-based (process) numerical models are typically utilized. However, in data-rich cases, one may use data-driven methods aiming at reconstructing the internal patterns of the modelled processes and relationships between the observed descriptive variables. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. First, some fundamentals of physical oceanography, nonlinear dynamics and chaos, computational intelligence and European operational storm surge models are covered. After that a number of improvements in building chaotic models are presented: nonlinear time series analysis, multi-step prediction, phase space dimensionality reduction, techniques dealing with incomplete time series, phase error correction, finding true neighbours, optimization of chaotic model, data assimilation and multi-model ensemble prediction. The major case study is surge prediction in the North Sea, with some tests on a Caribbean Sea case. The modelling results showed that the enhanced predictive chaotic models can serve as an efficient tool for accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictions of storm surges in order to support decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.

Deep Learning in Multi-step Prediction of Chaotic Dynamics

Author: Matteo Sangiorgio

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-02-14

Total Pages: 111

ISBN-13: 3030944824

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The book represents the first attempt to systematically deal with the use of deep neural networks to forecast chaotic time series. Differently from most of the current literature, it implements a multi-step approach, i.e., the forecast of an entire interval of future values. This is relevant for many applications, such as model predictive control, that requires predicting the values for the whole receding horizon. Going progressively from deterministic models with different degrees of complexity and chaoticity to noisy systems and then to real-world cases, the book compares the performances of various neural network architectures (feed-forward and recurrent). It also introduces an innovative and powerful approach for training recurrent structures specific for sequence-to-sequence tasks. The book also presents one of the first attempts in the context of environmental time series forecasting of applying transfer-learning techniques such as domain adaptation.

Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Author: U.C. Mohanty

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-21

Total Pages: 746

ISBN-13: 9402408967

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This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.

Harold Pinter's Party Time

Author: White G. D.

Publisher:

Published: 2017-09-11

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13: 9781138472914

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All you have do is shut up and enjoy the hospitality.' Terry Harold Pinter's Party Time (1991) is an extraordinary distillation of the playwright's key concerns. Pulsing with political anger, it marks a stepping stone on Pinter's path from iconic dramatist of existential unease to Nobel Prize-winning poet of human rights. G. D. White situates this underrated play within a recognisably 'Pinteresque' landscape of ambiguous, brittle social drama while also recognising its particularity: Party Time is haunted by Augusto Pinochet's right-wing coup against Salvador Allende's democratically elected government in Chile. This book considers the play and its confederate works in the dual context of Pinter's literary career and burgeoning international concern with human rights and freedom of expression. White contrasts Pinter's uneasy relationship with the UK's powerful elite with the worldwide acclaim garnered by his dramatic eviscerations of power.

Storm-surge Forecasting

Author: J. W. Nickerson

Publisher:

Published: 1971

Total Pages: 114

ISBN-13:

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The report contains an adaptation of a unique storm-surge forecasting technique developed by Dr. C.P. Jelesnianski. This technique results in a computed storm surge profile at the inner boundary of an artificial standard basin seaward of the coast. The profile is derived from nomograms based upon a standard storm passing over a standard basin. Thumb rules and guidelines are presented in the publication for subjectively modifying the computer storm surge height as it moves shoreward of the artificial basin boundary, to fit the natural conditions of a particular coastline. Major advantages of this system are its applicability to almost any locale, its adaptability to data normally available to the field forecaster and the speed with which the forecast may be modified to remain current with natural fluctuations of the storm.

Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Environmental Sciences

Author: Sue Ellen Haupt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-11-28

Total Pages: 418

ISBN-13: 1402091192

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How can environmental scientists and engineers use the increasing amount of available data to enhance our understanding of planet Earth, its systems and processes? This book describes various potential approaches based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, including neural networks, decision trees, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic. Part I contains a series of tutorials describing the methods and the important considerations in applying them. In Part II, many practical examples illustrate the power of these techniques on actual environmental problems. International experts bring to life ways to apply AI to problems in the environmental sciences. While one culture entwines ideas with a thread, another links them with a red line. Thus, a “red thread“ ties the book together, weaving a tapestry that pictures the ‘natural’ data-driven AI methods in the light of the more traditional modeling techniques, and demonstrating the power of these data-based methods.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2018-05-17

Total Pages: 362

ISBN-13: 012812248X

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2019-06-18

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 0309492432

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We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

Author: Fi-John Chang

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2019-02-28

Total Pages: 376

ISBN-13: 3038975486

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Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.

Innovative Computational Intelligence: A Rough Guide to 134 Clever Algorithms

Author: Bo Xing

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-12-13

Total Pages: 451

ISBN-13: 3319034049

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The first notable feature of this book is its innovation: Computational intelligence (CI), a fast evolving area, is currently attracting lots of researchers’ attention in dealing with many complex problems. At present, there are quite a lot competing books existing in the market. Nevertheless, the present book is markedly different from the existing books in that it presents new paradigms of CI that have rarely mentioned before, as opposed to the traditional CI techniques or methodologies employed in other books. During the past decade, a number of new CI algorithms are proposed. Unfortunately, they spread in a number of unrelated publishing directions which may hamper the use of such published resources. These provide us with motivation to analyze the existing research for categorizing and synthesizing it in a meaningful manner. The mission of this book is really important since those algorithms are going to be a new revolution in computer science. We hope it will stimulate the readers to make novel contributions or even start a new paradigm based on nature phenomena. Although structured as a textbook, the book's straightforward, self-contained style will also appeal to a wide audience of professionals, researchers and independent learners. We believe that the book will be instrumental in initiating an integrated approach to complex problems by allowing cross-fertilization of design principles from different design philosophies. The second feature of this book is its comprehensiveness: Through an extensive literature research, there are 134 innovative CI algorithms covered in this book.