Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system PDF

Author: Abushama, Hala

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-10-27

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13:

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This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty PDF

Author: Siddig, Khalid

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-08-28

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting.

Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms

Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms PDF

Author: Kirui, Oliver K.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-08-08

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13:

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This study assesses how agri-food processing enterprises have been affected during the first 3 months of the on-going conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Force (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The food processing and beverage manufacturing sector plays a significant role as a source of food, employment, and value addition in Sudan. Thus, the ensuing conflict will have both direct and indirect negative consequences to livelihoods and food security. We collected data from representatives of food processing and beverage manufacturing companies throughout Sudan via web-based interviews. The findings highlight the immediate implications of the conflict on the agri-food processing and manufacturing sector. The impact of the conflict has immediately extended beyond direct destruction of the infrastructure and equipment of the firms to cause serious negative employment effects. Furthermore, it led to a growing scarcity of the key material inputs/raw materials and an associated spike in the price of these key ingredients to the production processes. We discuss the implications of these findings vis-à-vis the fluid nature of the continuing conflict and propose some options in preparations to rebuilding the agri-food enterprises once the cessation of hostilities and the end of conflict is achieved.

Transformation of Sudan's agrifood system structure and drivers

Transformation of Sudan's agrifood system structure and drivers PDF

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-07-17

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13:

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Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, the Sudanese economy has faced an unprecedented economic downturn caused by the loss of around 75 percent of oil revenue, civil strife, and political instability (Alhelo, Siddig, and Kirui 2023), and more recently, by the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war (Abay et al. 2023). The political conflict between the civilians and military entities after the fall of the Inghaz regime and the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are driving further deterioration of the economy (Abushama et al. 2023).

Navigating Sudan's conflict: Research insights and policy implications: Proceedings of a conference

Navigating Sudan's conflict: Research insights and policy implications: Proceedings of a conference PDF

Author: Ahmed, Mosab

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-05-20

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

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This report synthesizes the key discussions and outcomes of the “Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications” conference, held on March 5, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. Convening a diverse group of experts in research, development, and humanitarian efforts, the conference aimed to explore actionable solutions for the socioeconomic challenges triggered by Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Participants at the conference delved into the conflict’s adverse impacts on agriculture, markets, employment, and food security, as well as its wider regional impacts. Notably, the conference findings underscore the urgent need for supporting smallholder farmers, stabilizing markets, generating employment opportunities, and enhancing agricultural productivity within a comprehensive recovery strategy. Furthermore, conference participants stressed the importance of innovative data gathering, collaborative policy formulation, international support, and coordination to ensure effective interventions. This report succinctly presents the interventions discussed in the conference’s research and panel discussion sessions, particularly the pivotal insights offered in each to guide policy that will build peace, strengthen resilience, and relaunch and accelerate human and economic development efforts in Sudan.

Livelihoods in Sudan amid armed conflict: Evidence from a national rural household survey

Livelihoods in Sudan amid armed conflict: Evidence from a national rural household survey PDF

Author: Kirui, Oliver K.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-04-19

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13:

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Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods. The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate. Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households. The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities. Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience. The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis. This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability.

Food from Peace

Food from Peace PDF

Author: Ellen Messer

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13: 0896296288

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Includes statistics.

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey PDF

Author: Kirui, Oliver

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-01-03

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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This study addresses the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan on smallholder farmers' intentions and challenges during the 2023 summer agricultural season. A nationally representative survey of 3,284 smallholder farmers was conducted. Due to the security hazards and connectivity challenges, we used a combination of three interview types, Interactive Voice Recording (IVR), Computer-Assisted-Tele phone-Interviews (CATI) and face-to-face (in-person) interviews. Key findings are that close to a third of the farmers were displaced from their farms’ locations and 40 percent were unable to prepare for planting season because of the conflict. Most of the farmers who did not prepare for the summer season at the time of the interview were not intending to plant later in the season. The key challenges that pre vented them from planting were the lack of finance to buy agricultural inputs (such as seeds and fertilizers) and/or to hire farm labor. This is compounded by bad weather conditions, poor quality of the local seed varieties, higher cost of improved seeds, and delayed rains (climate challenges). In addition, the ongoing conflict has had direct and indirect impacts that prevented many farmers from planting this season. It disrupted market functionality and reduced the availability of and/or raised the cost of agricultural inputs and farm labor. The lack of finances has also seen farmers reduce the size of the area they planted this season compared to last year’s season. The compounding challenges of these reduced production are expected to be felt as soon as the harvest season begins. The implications suggest the need for rapid intervention to support farmers during the harvest and winter seasons to mitigate the impact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

The status of women in agrifood systems

The status of women in agrifood systems PDF

Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.

Published: 2023-04-13

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 9251378142

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The status of women in agrifood systems report uses extensive new data and analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of women’s participation, benefits, and challenges they face working in agrifood systems globally. The report shows how increasing women’s empowerment and gender equality in agrifood systems enhances women’s well-being and the well-being of their households, creating opportunities for economic growth, greater incomes, productivity and resilience. The report comes more than a decade after the publication of the State of food and agriculture (SOFA) 2010–11: Women in agriculture – Closing the gender gap for development. SOFA 2010–11 documented the tremendous costs of gender inequality not only for women but also for agriculture and the broader economy and society, making the business case for closing existing gender gaps in accessing agricultural assets, inputs and services. Moving beyond agriculture, The status of women in agrifood systems reflects not only on how gender equality and women’s empowerment are central to the transition towards sustainable and resilient agrifood systems but also on how the transformation of agrifood systems can contribute to gender equality and women’s empowerment. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the available evidence on gender equality and women’s empowerment in agrifood systems that has been produced over the last decade. The report also provides policymakers and development actors with an extensive review of what has worked, highlighting the promise of moving from closing specific gender gaps towards the adoption of gender-transformative approaches that explicitly address the formal and informal structural constraints to equality. It concludes with specific recommendations on the way forward. Last update 03/08/2023