Pathways to Demographic Adaptation

Pathways to Demographic Adaptation PDF

Author: Josefina Syssner

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 93

ISBN-13: 9783030340476

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This book builds on case studies in depopulating and shrinking areas in Northern Europe. While most contemporary literature on shrinkage focuses on these issues from a planning standpoint, this book uniquely applies a policy perspective when approaching the material. The book assesses the potential of demographic adaptation policies to manage depopulation, that is, policy programs aiming at managing depopulation through adaptation, rather than through growth policies intended to foster population growth. In 6 chapters, the book acts as an up-to-date resource on demographic adaptation for master and Ph.D. students, researchers, and practitioners working in local and regional development, governance, and planning. Chapter 1 gives an overview of recent demographic trends in Northern Europe and introduces the theoretical differences between growth policy and adaptation policy. Chapter 2 accounts for the policy concept and introduces a framework for how local adaptation policies could be systematically analysed. Chapter 3 suggests that the Nordic welfare states exhibit two characteristics that prove to be relevant when discussing the consequences and policy implications of demographic decline, i.e. an extremely sparse population structure and an ambitious welfare assignment that in many respects has been devolved to the local level of government. Chapter 4 suggests that whether shrinkage constitutes a problem or not depends upon the interpretations of those in power, but also upon political, economic and geographic conditions Chapter 5 seeks to understand why local level policymakers avoid developing strategies for how to handle long-term population decline. Chapter 6 summarizes the points of the previous chapters, and concludes that local governments in shrinking areas ought to develop local adaptation policies. These policies, however, also need to be subjected to critical analysis, and the chapter introduces a model for how local adaptation policy priorities could be assessed in a more structured manner.

Pathways to Demographic Adaptation

Pathways to Demographic Adaptation PDF

Author: Josefina Syssner

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-01-09

Total Pages: 99

ISBN-13: 3030340465

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This book builds on case studies in depopulating and shrinking areas in Northern Europe. While most contemporary literature on shrinkage focuses on these issues from a planning standpoint, this book uniquely applies a policy perspective when approaching the material. The book assesses the potential of demographic adaptation policies to manage depopulation, that is, policy programs aiming at managing depopulation through adaptation, rather than through growth policies intended to foster population growth. In 6 chapters, the book acts as an up-to-date resource on demographic adaptation for master and Ph.D. students, researchers, and practitioners working in local and regional development, governance, and planning. Chapter 1 gives an overview of recent demographic trends in Northern Europe and introduces the theoretical differences between growth policy and adaptation policy. Chapter 2 accounts for the policy concept and introduces a framework for how local adaptation policies could be systematically analysed. Chapter 3 suggests that the Nordic welfare states exhibit two characteristics that prove to be relevant when discussing the consequences and policy implications of demographic decline, i.e. an extremely sparse population structure and an ambitious welfare assignment that in many respects has been devolved to the local level of government. Chapter 4 suggests that whether shrinkage constitutes a problem or not depends upon the interpretations of those in power, but also upon political, economic and geographic conditions Chapter 5 seeks to understand why local level policymakers avoid developing strategies for how to handle long-term population decline. Chapter 6 summarizes the points of the previous chapters, and concludes that local governments in shrinking areas ought to develop local adaptation policies. These policies, however, also need to be subjected to critical analysis, and the chapter introduces a model for how local adaptation policy priorities could be assessed in a more structured manner.

The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change

The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change PDF

Author: George Martine

Publisher: UN

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780897140010

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A flurry of extreme weather events, together with projections that grow more somber with every new scientific advance, have dramatically highlighted the need to respond more effectively to the threats already upon humankind. In the midst of a rapidly expanding global adaptation agenda, it is of primary importance to get adaptation and its constituent parts right, in order to generate the most appropriate and effective interventions. Adapting to episodes after they occur is no longer sufficient; we increasingly need to anticipate and reduce the suffering and the enormously damaging impacts of potential coming events. This book addresses a major gap in adaptation efforts to date by pointing to the vital role that an understanding of population dynamics and an extensive use of demographic data have in developing pre-emptive and effective adaptation policies and practices. Politics and an oversimplified understanding of demographic dynamics have long kept population issues out of serious discussions in the framework of climate negotiations. Within adaptation actions, however, this is beginning to change, and this volume is intended to provide a framework for taking that change forward, towards better, more evidence-based adaptation. It provides key concepts linking demography and adaptation, data foundations and techniques for analyzing climate vulnerability, as well as case studies where these concepts and analyses illuminate who is vulnerable and how to help build their resilience.

Flexibility in Engineering Design

Flexibility in Engineering Design PDF

Author: Richard De Neufville

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2011-08-12

Total Pages: 310

ISBN-13: 0262297337

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A guide to using the power of design flexibility to improve the performance of complex technological projects, for designers, managers, users, and analysts. Project teams can improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs they can adapt to eventualities. This approach enables them to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid harmful losses. Designers of complex, long-lasting projects—such as communication networks, power plants, or hospitals—must learn to abandon fixed specifications and narrow forecasts. They need to avoid the “flaw of averages,” the conceptual pitfall that traps so many designs in underperformance. Failure to allow for changing circumstances risks leaving significant value untapped. This book is a guide for creating and implementing value-enhancing flexibility in design. It will be an essential resource for all participants in the development and operation of technological systems: designers, managers, financial analysts, investors, regulators, and academics. The book provides a high-level overview of why flexibility in design is needed to deliver significantly increased value. It describes in detail methods to identify, select, and implement useful flexibility. The book is unique in that it explicitly recognizes that future outcomes are uncertain. It thus presents forecasting, analysis, and evaluation tools especially suited to this reality. Appendixes provide expanded explanations of concepts and analytic tools.

Genetics of Adaptation

Genetics of Adaptation PDF

Author: Rodney Mauricio

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2005-07-20

Total Pages: 207

ISBN-13: 1402038364

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An enduring controversy in evolutionary biology is the genetic basis of adaptation. Darwin emphasized "many slight differences" as the ultimate source of variation to be acted upon by natural selection. In the early 1900’s, this view was opposed by "Mendelian geneticists", who emphasized the importance of "macromutations" in evolution. The Modern Synthesis resolved this controversy, concluding that mutations in genes of very small effect were responsible for adaptive evolution. A decade ago, Allen Orr and Jerry Coyne reexamined the evidence for this neo-Darwinian view and found that both the theoretical and empirical basis for it were weak. Orr and Coyne encouraged evolutionary biologists to reexamine this neglected question: what is the genetic basis of adaptive evolution? In this volume, a new generation of biologists have taken up this challenge. Using advances in both molecular genetic and statistical techniques, evolutionary geneticists have made considerable progress in this emerging field. In this volume, a diversity of examples from plant and animal studies provides valuable information for those interested in the genetics and evolution of complex traits.

Concepts of Biology

Concepts of Biology PDF

Author: Samantha Fowler

Publisher:

Published: 2018-01-07

Total Pages: 618

ISBN-13: 9789888407453

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Concepts of Biology is designed for the single-semester introduction to biology course for non-science majors, which for many students is their only college-level science course. As such, this course represents an important opportunity for students to develop the necessary knowledge, tools, and skills to make informed decisions as they continue with their lives. Rather than being mired down with facts and vocabulary, the typical non-science major student needs information presented in a way that is easy to read and understand. Even more importantly, the content should be meaningful. Students do much better when they understand why biology is relevant to their everyday lives. For these reasons, Concepts of Biology is grounded on an evolutionary basis and includes exciting features that highlight careers in the biological sciences and everyday applications of the concepts at hand.We also strive to show the interconnectedness of topics within this extremely broad discipline. In order to meet the needs of today's instructors and students, we maintain the overall organization and coverage found in most syllabi for this course. A strength of Concepts of Biology is that instructors can customize the book, adapting it to the approach that works best in their classroom. Concepts of Biology also includes an innovative art program that incorporates critical thinking and clicker questions to help students understand--and apply--key concepts.

The Demographic Crisis in Europe

The Demographic Crisis in Europe PDF

Author: Richard R. Verdugo

Publisher: IAP

Published: 2021-05-01

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 1648024998

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By most accounts, Europe has been mired in a “demographic crisis” since about 1970. By a demographic crisis is meant that Europe’s dependency ratio is increasing, and the net result has been declining populations and fewer workers to sustain society. However, there are certain issues that need attention. Two topics seem to capture some of these issues: The implications of the possible crisis, and the crisis’ assessment. The present volume is organized around both topics (implications and assessment). There are at least three contributions being made by the proposed volume. To begin with, while there are other issues related to the demographic crisis in Europe the present volume should motivate additional research. Secondly, the research in the proposed volume does not necessarily assume that there is a demographic crisis in Europe nor that it is consistent across national lines. Thus, each chapter, in essence, examines a different issue associated with the proposal that there is a crisis. Finally, the present volume makes several methodological contributions. For example, the chapter by David Swanson uses non-Bayesian modeling in studying infant mortality. Richard Verdugo examines the dependency ratio and selected factors on economic growth in selected European nations, Kposowa and Ezzat conduct an assessment, Martins examines variation in the path toward a crisis, Johnson examines humanitarian migration and the crisis, Edmonston examines the association between geopolitics and the crisis.

Aging and the Macroeconomy

Aging and the Macroeconomy PDF

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-01-10

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 0309261961

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The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology

Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology PDF

Author: Hal Caswell

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-02

Total Pages: 308

ISBN-13: 3030105342

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This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.