Pairs Trading: A Bayesian Example

Pairs Trading: A Bayesian Example PDF

Author: Stefan Hollos

Publisher: Abrazol Publishing

Published: 2012-08-31

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13: 9781887187152

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Have you ever wondered whether Bayesian analysis can be applied toward the stock market? We did, and set out to investigate. This book shows you how to find relationships between stocks or exchange traded funds (ETFs) using Bayesian analysis. A relationship that most traders are probably familiar with is linear correlation. This is sometimes used as the basis for pairs trading. But linear correlation is just one way that stocks or ETFs can be related. The analysis we present in this book can be used to exploit almost any kind of relationship that may exist between stocks or ETFs. The book will show how to calculate the probability of a stock or ETF ending the day up or down based on what other stocks or ETFs are doing. A probability is more useful than a simple up or down signal. It quantifies the certainty of a prediction and allows a trader to take a position consistent with a given level of risk. Any active trader should find the techniques presented in this book useful. We are only going to examine the relationships in one small group of ETFs as an example of what is possible but the same techniques will work for any set of stocks, ETFs, or even bonds. The tool we use to calculate the probability of a positive or negative return on a stock or ETF is called a Bayesian classifier. It is called a classifier because it calculates probabilities for only two discrete outcomes: positive or negative. The method we use to calculate these probabilities is called Bayes' Theorem.

Pairs Trading

Pairs Trading PDF

Author: Ganapathy Vidyamurthy

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-02-02

Total Pages: 295

ISBN-13: 111804570X

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The first in-depth analysis of pairs trading Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy in its most simple form. The strategy involves being long (or bullish) one asset and short (or bearish) another. If properly performed, the investor will gain if the market rises or falls. Pairs Trading reveals the secrets of this rigorous quantitative analysis program to provide individuals and investment houses with the tools they need to successfully implement and profit from this proven trading methodology. Pairs Trading contains specific and tested formulas for identifying and investing in pairs, and answers important questions such as what ratio should be used to construct the pairs properly. Ganapathy Vidyamurthy (Stamford, CT) is currently a quantitative software analyst and developer at a major New York City hedge fund.

The Handbook of Pairs Trading

The Handbook of Pairs Trading PDF

Author: Douglas S. Ehrman

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2006-01-24

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 0471774049

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Learn both the theory and practice of pairs trading, why it is consistently profitable, and how you can apply the strategies in your own trading with this valuable guide. Author Douglas Ehrman covers pairs trading involving stocks, options on stocks, and futures contracts, and explains how this type of trading allows you to profit from the changing price relationship of securities. In addition to a comprehensive discussion of the theories involved, he also includes practical examples that will to help you put what you've learned into practice. Douglas S. Ehrman is a hedge fund manager and a leading authority on pairs trading. He is one of the founders and the Chief Executive Officer of AlphAmerica Asset Management LLC in Chicago. He also served as the chief executive officer of AlphAmerica Financial, Inc., the company that operated PairsTrading.com prior to its merger with PairTrader.com.

Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices PDF

Author: Lukasz T. Gatarek

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13:

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We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys' prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread -- the deviation from the equilibrium relationship -- which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.

Trading Pairs

Trading Pairs PDF

Author: Mark Whistler

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2004-10-07

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 0471679704

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An accessible guide to the pairs trading technique A leading arbitrage expert gives traders real tools for using pairs trading, including customizable Excel worksheets available on the companion website. Mark Whistler (Denver, CO) is the key developer of pairstrader.com as well as a licensed securities trader and broker and leading arbitrage expert.

Optimal Pairs Trading Rules and Numerical Methods

Optimal Pairs Trading Rules and Numerical Methods PDF

Author: Phong Thanh Luu

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 276

ISBN-13:

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Pairs trading involves two correlated securities. When divergence is underway, i.e., one stock moves up while the other moves down, a pairs trade is entered consisting of a short position in the outperforming stock and long position in the underperforming one. Such a strategy bets the ``spread" between the two would eventually converge. The main advantage of pairs trading is its risk neutral nature, i.e., it can be profitable regardless the general market condition. In this dissertation, a difference of the pair is studied. When the difference is governed by a mean-reversion model, the trade will be closed whenever the difference reaches a target level or a pre-determined cutloss limit. On the other hand, when it satisfies a regime-switching model, the trade will be determined by two conditional probability threshold levels. The objective is to identify the optimal threshold levels so as to maximize an overall return. We apply stochastic control theories to solve these optimal pairs trading problems. Many techniques have been implemented, including ordinary differential equation, stochastic approximation, and viscosity solution approaches. The effectiveness of these methods is examined in numerical examples. Index words: Geometric Brownian motion, mean reversion model, regime switching model, HJB equation, stochastic approximation, viscosity solution.

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading PDF

Author: Stefan Jansen

Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd

Published: 2020-07-31

Total Pages: 822

ISBN-13: 1839216786

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Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.

Pairs Trading

Pairs Trading PDF

Author: Ganapathy Vidyamurthy

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2004-08-30

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 9780471460671

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The first in-depth analysis of pairs trading Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy in its most simple form. The strategy involves being long (or bullish) one asset and short (or bearish) another. If properly performed, the investor will gain if the market rises or falls. Pairs Trading reveals the secrets of this rigorous quantitative analysis program to provide individuals and investment houses with the tools they need to successfully implement and profit from this proven trading methodology. Pairs Trading contains specific and tested formulas for identifying and investing in pairs, and answers important questions such as what ratio should be used to construct the pairs properly. Ganapathy Vidyamurthy (Stamford, CT) is currently a quantitative software analyst and developer at a major New York City hedge fund.

Pairs Trading with Copulas

Pairs Trading with Copulas PDF

Author: Wenjun Xie

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Pairs trading is a well-acknowledged speculative investment strategy that is widely used in the financial markets, and distance method is the most commonly implemented pairs trading strategy by traders and hedge funds. However, this approach, which can be seen as a standard linear correlation analysis, is only able to fully describe the dependency structure between stocks under the assumption of multivariate normal returns. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new pairs trading strategy using copula modeling technique. Copula allows separate estimation of the marginal distributions of stock returns as well as their joint dependency structure. Thus, the proposed new strategy, which is based on the estimated optimal dependency structure and marginal distributions, can identify relative undervalued or overvalued positions with more accuracy and confidence. Hence, it is deemed to generate more trading opportunities and profits. A simple one-pair-one-cycle example is used to illustrate the advantages of the proposed method. Besides, a large sample analysis using the utility industry data is provided as well. The overall empirical results have verified that the proposed strategy can generate higher profits compared with the conventional distance method. We argue that the proposed trading strategy can be considered as a generalization of the conventional pairs trading strategy.