-PDF Download- Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations EBOOK

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Author: Gabriel Di Bella

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-05

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484336747

Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Author: Gabriel Di Bella

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-05

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484336828

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

Author: Paul Beaudry

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-05-30

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1484358929

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

Capital Market Liberalization and Development

Author: José Antonio Ocampo

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2008-05-01

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 0191528153

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Capital market liberalization has been a key battle in the debate on globalization for much of the previous two decades. Many developing countries, often at the behest of international financial institutions such as the IMF, opened their capital accounts and liberalized their domestic financial markets as part of the wave of liberalization that characterized the 1980s and 1990s and in doing so exposed their economies to increased risk and volatility. Now with even the IMF acknowledging the risks inherent in capital market liberalization, the central intellectual battle over the effects of capital market liberalization has for the most part ended. Though this new understanding of the consequences of capital market liberalization is reshaping many policy discussions among academics and international institutions, ideological and vested interests remain. Critical policy debates also remain, such as how much government should intervene and what tools are available. Although capital market liberalization might not produce the promised benefits, many economists and policymakers still worry about the costs of intervention. Do these costs exceed the benefits? What are the best kinds of interventions, under what circumstances? To answer these questions, we have to understand why capital market liberalization has failed to enhance growth, why it has resulted in greater instability, why the poor appear to have borne the greatest burden, and why the advocates of capital market liberalization were so wrong. Bringing together some of the leading researchers and practitioners in the field, this volume provides an analysis of both the risks associated with capital market liberalization and the alternative policy options available to enhance macroeconomic management.

Post Walrasian Macroeconomics

Author: David Colander

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2006-07-17

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1139459058

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.

Economics for the IB Diploma with CD-ROM

Author: Ellie Tragakes

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2011-11-03

Total Pages: 577

ISBN-13: 0521186404

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Arranged in four sections, provides review exercises and past examination questions for topics in microeconomics, macroeconomics, interantional economics, and development economics.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies

Author: Edouard Challe

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2023-09-19

Total Pages: 361

ISBN-13: 0262549298

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.

Short-Term Trading in the New Stock Market

Author: Toni Turner

Publisher: Macmillan + ORM

Published: 2006-09-19

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 1429969121

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Short-Term Trading in the New Stock Market by Toni Turner is an essential guide for every money-minded trader. In an uncertain market, can traders and investors find profits in short-term stock movements? Bestselling author and trader Toni Turner teaches readers the techniques and strategies needed to trade in today's up-and-down stock market. The book begins with "Seven Steps to Trading Success," which outlines the logistics needed to establish a trading career. In an upbeat, clear, and lively style, Short-Term Trading in the New Stock Market covers: *The Seven Steps to Trading Success *What the new stock market looks like *How to lower risks and increase gains *How to formulate your own trading business plan *How to analyze market cycles and find profit opportunities *Key Charting fundamentals that reveal buy and sell signals using Trends and Trendlines, Candlesticks, Volume, Momentum Indicators, and other tools for success *Swing Trading, Position Trading, and Selling Short *Introduction to E-mini trading and Forex markets * "Center Points" to find balance and calm in a fast-moving market

Economics of Sustainable Energy

Author: Jaan S. Islam

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-10-09

Total Pages: 644

ISBN-13: 1119525926

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Co-written by a pioneer of the sustainability movement, this groundbreaking volume offers a new way of thinking about the economics of sustainable energy, a goal that has eluded scientists and economists for decades. Every year, as soon as reports on global economic inequality remind us about the direction our civilization is heading, there is a hysterical reaction, but hysteria dies down within weeks and we go back to the lifestyle that brought us here today. Often the blame is laid on the Millennial generation for their "apathy," "lust for comfort," and "bratty" attitude. Yet, business insider surveys indicate it's the same Millennial generation that overwhelmingly cares for the state of the world and the direction in which our civilization is heading. Nearly 50% of them ranked climate change and destruction of nature as their primary concern. This is followed by concern for war and global conflict, and then global economic inequality. The vast majority of those surveyed are willing and eager to make lifestyle changes. This book breaks open the hypocrisy of our civilization and stops the blame game in its tracks and identifies the root causes of today's world economy, ecology, and global politics. The book demonstrates that changes in lifestyle are necessary but not sufficient. No economic policy or technology development mode has a chance to survive, let alone thrive unless supported by the political establishment. In this process, the government plays a pivotal role. The challenge is to change the attitude of the government from a 'self-serving' controlling mode to a representative philanthropic mode. This new system of economic development and political governance is inspired by a long-forgotten understanding of political economics: medieval Islamic economics. In reviewing the history of economics from trade, currencies, and interest, the strengths and weaknesses of various economic developments over our centuries are evaluated. Based on the historical analysis, a step by step procedure is outlined for this fundamental change in our society today. As a whole, this book is the first in the modern era to offer such a comprehensive analysis, complete with solutions to the entire crisis of today's civilization.

Monetary Economics in the 1980's

Author: Forrest Capie

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-01-19

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1349101494

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This volume contains the first eight lectures delivered in honour of Henry Thornton the economist, at City University, London. Seven of the lectures are by monetary economists and one is by a Governer of the Bank of England. Exchange rates, macroeconomics, and interest rates are discussed.