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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation

Author: Dirk Husmeier

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 1447108477

Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5.

Predictive Modular Neural Networks

Author: Vassilios Petridis

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1998-09-30

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 9780792382904

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The subject of this book is predictive modular neural networks and their ap plication to time series problems: classification, prediction and identification. The intended audience is researchers and graduate students in the fields of neural networks, computer science, statistical pattern recognition, statistics, control theory and econometrics. Biologists, neurophysiologists and medical engineers may also find this book interesting. In the last decade the neural networks community has shown intense interest in both modular methods and time series problems. Similar interest has been expressed for many years in other fields as well, most notably in statistics, control theory, econometrics etc. There is a considerable overlap (not always recognized) of ideas and methods between these fields. Modular neural networks come by many other names, for instance multiple models, local models and mixtures of experts. The basic idea is to independently develop several "subnetworks" (modules), which may perform the same or re lated tasks, and then use an "appropriate" method for combining the outputs of the subnetworks. Some of the expected advantages of this approach (when compared with the use of "lumped" or "monolithic" networks) are: superior performance, reduced development time and greater flexibility. For instance, if a module is removed from the network and replaced by a new module (which may perform the same task more efficiently), it should not be necessary to retrain the aggregate network.

Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

Author: Radford M. Neal

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 194

ISBN-13: 1461207452

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Artificial "neural networks" are widely used as flexible models for classification and regression applications, but questions remain about how the power of these models can be safely exploited when training data is limited. This book demonstrates how Bayesian methods allow complex neural network models to be used without fear of the "overfitting" that can occur with traditional training methods. Insight into the nature of these complex Bayesian models is provided by a theoretical investigation of the priors over functions that underlie them. A practical implementation of Bayesian neural network learning using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is also described, and software for it is freely available over the Internet. Presupposing only basic knowledge of probability and statistics, this book should be of interest to researchers in statistics, engineering, and artificial intelligence.

Geophysical Applications of Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic

Author: W. Sandham

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 9401702713

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The past fifteen years has witnessed an explosive growth in the fundamental research and applications of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy logic (FL). The main impetus behind this growth has been the ability of such methods to offer solutions not amenable to conventional techniques, particularly in application domains involving pattern recognition, prediction and control. Although the origins of ANNs and FL may be traced back to the 1940s and 1960s, respectively, the most rapid progress has only been achieved in the last fifteen years. This has been due to significant theoretical advances in our understanding of ANNs and FL, complemented by major technological developments in high-speed computing. In geophysics, ANNs and FL have enjoyed significant success and are now employed routinely in the following areas (amongst others): 1. Exploration Seismology. (a) Seismic data processing (trace editing; first break picking; deconvolution and multiple suppression; wavelet estimation; velocity analysis; noise identification/reduction; statics analysis; dataset matching/prediction, attenuation), (b) AVO analysis, (c) Chimneys, (d) Compression I dimensionality reduction, (e) Shear-wave analysis, (f) Interpretation (event tracking; lithology prediction and well-log analysis; prospect appraisal; hydrocarbon prediction; inversion; reservoir characterisation; quality assessment; tomography). 2. Earthquake Seismology and Subterranean Nuclear Explosions. 3. Mineral Exploration. 4. Electromagnetic I Potential Field Exploration. (a) Electromagnetic methods, (b) Potential field methods, (c) Ground penetrating radar, (d) Remote sensing, (e) inversion.

Hybrid Random Fields

Author: Antonino Freno

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-04-11

Total Pages: 217

ISBN-13: 3642203086

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This book presents an exciting new synthesis of directed and undirected, discrete and continuous graphical models. Combining elements of Bayesian networks and Markov random fields, the newly introduced hybrid random fields are an interesting approach to get the best of both these worlds, with an added promise of modularity and scalability. The authors have written an enjoyable book---rigorous in the treatment of the mathematical background, but also enlivened by interesting and original historical and philosophical perspectives. -- Manfred Jaeger, Aalborg Universitet The book not only marks an effective direction of investigation with significant experimental advances, but it is also---and perhaps primarily---a guide for the reader through an original trip in the space of probabilistic modeling. While digesting the book, one is enriched with a very open view of the field, with full of stimulating connections. [...] Everyone specifically interested in Bayesian networks and Markov random fields should not miss it. -- Marco Gori, Università degli Studi di Siena Graphical models are sometimes regarded---incorrectly---as an impractical approach to machine learning, assuming that they only work well for low-dimensional applications and discrete-valued domains. While guiding the reader through the major achievements of this research area in a technically detailed yet accessible way, the book is concerned with the presentation and thorough (mathematical and experimental) investigation of a novel paradigm for probabilistic graphical modeling, the hybrid random field. This model subsumes and extends both Bayesian networks and Markov random fields. Moreover, it comes with well-defined learning algorithms, both for discrete and continuous-valued domains, which fit the needs of real-world applications involving large-scale, high-dimensional data.

Self-Organising Neural Networks

Author: Mark Girolami

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 276

ISBN-13: 1447108256

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The conception of fresh ideas and the development of new techniques for Blind Source Separation and Independent Component Analysis have been rapid in recent years. It is also encouraging, from the perspective of the many scientists involved in this fascinating area of research, to witness the growing list of successful applications of these methods to a diverse range of practical everyday problems. This growth has been due, in part, to the number of promising young and enthusiastic researchers who have committed their efforts to expanding the current body of knowledge within this field of research. The author of this book is among one of their number. I trust that the present book by Dr. Mark Girolami will provide a rapid and effective means of communicating some of these new ideas to a wide international audience and that in turn this will expand further the growth of knowledge. In my opinion this book makes an important contribution to the theory of Independent Component Analysis and Blind Source Separation. This opens a range of exciting methods, techniques and algorithms for applied researchers and practitioner engineers, especially from the perspective of artificial neural networks and information theory. It has been interesting to see how rapidly the scientific literature in this area has grown.

Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 376

ISBN-13: 146155473X

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Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

Artificial Neural Networks in Biomedicine

Author: Paulo J.G. Lisboa

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 1447104870

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Following the intense research activIties of the last decade, artificial neural networks have emerged as one of the most promising new technologies for improving the quality of healthcare. Many successful applications of neural networks to biomedical problems have been reported which demonstrate, convincingly, the distinct benefits of neural networks, although many ofthese have only undergone a limited clinical evaluation. Healthcare providers and developers alike have discovered that medicine and healthcare are fertile areas for neural networks: the problems here require expertise and often involve non-trivial pattern recognition tasks - there are genuine difficulties with conventional methods, and data can be plentiful. The intense research activities in medical neural networks, and allied areas of artificial intelligence, have led to a substantial body of knowledge and the introduction of some neural systems into clinical practice. An aim of this book is to provide a coherent framework for some of the most experienced users and developers of medical neural networks in the world to share their knowledge and expertise with readers.

Neural Nets WIRN Vietri-99

Author: Maria Marinaro

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 429

ISBN-13: 1447108779

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From its early beginnings in the fifties and sixties, the field of neural networks has been steadily developing to become one of the most interdisciplinary areas of research within computer science. This volume contains a selection of papers from WIRN Vietri-99, the 11th Italian Workshop on Neural Nets. This annual event, sponsored, amongst others, by the IEEE Neural Networks Council and the INNS/SIG Italy, brings together the best of research from all over the world. The papers cover a range of topics within neural networks, including pattern recognition, signal and image processing, mathematical models, neuro-fuzzy models and economics applications.

Artificial Neural Networks in Medicine and Biology

Author: H. Malmgren

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 339

ISBN-13: 1447105133

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This book contains the proceedings of the conference ANNIMAB-l, held 13-16 May 2000 in Goteborg, Sweden. The conference was organized by the Society for Artificial Neural Networks in Medicine and Biology (ANNIMAB-S), which was established to promote research within a new and genuinely cross-disciplinary field. Forty-two contributions were accepted for presentation; in addition to these, S invited papers are also included. Research within medicine and biology has often been characterised by application of statistical methods for evaluating domain specific data. The growing interest in Artificial Neural Networks has not only introduced new methods for data analysis, but also opened up for development of new models of biological and ecological systems. The ANNIMAB-l conference is focusing on some of the many uses of artificial neural networks with relevance for medicine and biology, specifically: • Medical applications of artificial neural networks: for better diagnoses and outcome predictions from clinical and laboratory data, in the processing of ECG and EEG signals, in medical image analysis, etc. More than half of the contributions address such clinically oriented issues. • Uses of ANNs in biology outside clinical medicine: for example, in models of ecology and evolution, for data analysis in molecular biology, and (of course) in models of animal and human nervous systems and their capabilities. • Theoretical aspects: recent developments in learning algorithms, ANNs in relation to expert systems and to traditional statistical procedures, hybrid systems and integrative approaches.