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Model-Free Prediction and Regression

Author: Dimitris N. Politis

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-11-13

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 3319213474

The Model-Free Prediction Principle expounded upon in this monograph is based on the simple notion of transforming a complex dataset to one that is easier to work with, e.g., i.i.d. or Gaussian. As such, it restores the emphasis on observable quantities, i.e., current and future data, as opposed to unobservable model parameters and estimates thereof, and yields optimal predictors in diverse settings such as regression and time series. Furthermore, the Model-Free Bootstrap takes us beyond point prediction in order to construct frequentist prediction intervals without resort to unrealistic assumptions such as normality. Prediction has been traditionally approached via a model-based paradigm, i.e., (a) fit a model to the data at hand, and (b) use the fitted model to extrapolate/predict future data. Due to both mathematical and computational constraints, 20th century statistical practice focused mostly on parametric models. Fortunately, with the advent of widely accessible powerful computing in the late 1970s, computer-intensive methods such as the bootstrap and cross-validation freed practitioners from the limitations of parametric models, and paved the way towards the `big data' era of the 21st century. Nonetheless, there is a further step one may take, i.e., going beyond even nonparametric models; this is where the Model-Free Prediction Principle is useful. Interestingly, being able to predict a response variable Y associated with a regressor variable X taking on any possible value seems to inadvertently also achieve the main goal of modeling, i.e., trying to describe how Y depends on X. Hence, as prediction can be treated as a by-product of model-fitting, key estimation problems can be addressed as a by-product of being able to perform prediction. In other words, a practitioner can use Model-Free Prediction ideas in order to additionally obtain point estimates and confidence intervals for relevant parameters leading to an alternative, transformation-based approach to statistical inference.

Practical Statistics for Data Scientists

Author: Peter Bruce

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2017-05-10

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 1491952911

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Statistical methods are a key part of of data science, yet very few data scientists have any formal statistics training. Courses and books on basic statistics rarely cover the topic from a data science perspective. This practical guide explains how to apply various statistical methods to data science, tells you how to avoid their misuse, and gives you advice on what's important and what's not. Many data science resources incorporate statistical methods but lack a deeper statistical perspective. If you’re familiar with the R programming language, and have some exposure to statistics, this quick reference bridges the gap in an accessible, readable format. With this book, you’ll learn: Why exploratory data analysis is a key preliminary step in data science How random sampling can reduce bias and yield a higher quality dataset, even with big data How the principles of experimental design yield definitive answers to questions How to use regression to estimate outcomes and detect anomalies Key classification techniques for predicting which categories a record belongs to Statistical machine learning methods that “learn” from data Unsupervised learning methods for extracting meaning from unlabeled data

Regression and Other Stories

Author: Andrew Gelman

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-07-23

Total Pages: 551

ISBN-13: 110702398X

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A practical approach to using regression and computation to solve real-world problems of estimation, prediction, and causal inference.

Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science

Author: Pieter Kubben

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-12-21

Total Pages: 219

ISBN-13: 3319997130

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This open access book comprehensively covers the fundamentals of clinical data science, focusing on data collection, modelling and clinical applications. Topics covered in the first section on data collection include: data sources, data at scale (big data), data stewardship (FAIR data) and related privacy concerns. Aspects of predictive modelling using techniques such as classification, regression or clustering, and prediction model validation will be covered in the second section. The third section covers aspects of (mobile) clinical decision support systems, operational excellence and value-based healthcare. Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science is an essential resource for healthcare professionals and IT consultants intending to develop and refine their skills in personalized medicine, using solutions based on large datasets from electronic health records or telemonitoring programmes. The book’s promise is “no math, no code”and will explain the topics in a style that is optimized for a healthcare audience.

Applied Predictive Modeling

Author: Max Kuhn

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-05-17

Total Pages: 600

ISBN-13: 1461468493

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Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.

Predictions in Time Series Using Regression Models

Author: Cory Terrell

Publisher: Scientific e-Resources

Published: 2019-09-02

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 1839473290

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Regression methods have been a necessary piece of time arrangement investigation for over a century. As of late, new advancements have made real walks in such territories as non-constant information where a direct model isn't fitting. This book acquaints the peruser with fresher improvements and more assorted regression models and methods for time arrangement examination. Open to any individual who knows about the fundamental present day ideas of factual deduction, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis gives a truly necessary examination of late measurable advancements. Essential among them is the imperative class of models known as summed up straight models (GLM) which gives, under a few conditions, a bound together regression hypothesis reasonable for constant, all out, and check information. The creators stretch out GLM methodology deliberately to time arrangement where the essential and covariate information are both arbitrary and stochastically reliant. They acquaint readers with different regression models created amid the most recent thirty years or somewhere in the vicinity and condense traditional and later outcomes concerning state space models.

Regression Analysis with R

Author: Giuseppe Ciaburro

Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd

Published: 2018-01-31

Total Pages: 416

ISBN-13: 1788622707

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Build effective regression models in R to extract valuable insights from real data Key Features Implement different regression analysis techniques to solve common problems in data science - from data exploration to dealing with missing values From Simple Linear Regression to Logistic Regression - this book covers all regression techniques and their implementation in R A complete guide to building effective regression models in R and interpreting results from them to make valuable predictions Book Description Regression analysis is a statistical process which enables prediction of relationships between variables. The predictions are based on the casual effect of one variable upon another. Regression techniques for modeling and analyzing are employed on large set of data in order to reveal hidden relationship among the variables. This book will give you a rundown explaining what regression analysis is, explaining you the process from scratch. The first few chapters give an understanding of what the different types of learning are – supervised and unsupervised, how these learnings differ from each other. We then move to covering the supervised learning in details covering the various aspects of regression analysis. The outline of chapters are arranged in a way that gives a feel of all the steps covered in a data science process – loading the training dataset, handling missing values, EDA on the dataset, transformations and feature engineering, model building, assessing the model fitting and performance, and finally making predictions on unseen datasets. Each chapter starts with explaining the theoretical concepts and once the reader gets comfortable with the theory, we move to the practical examples to support the understanding. The practical examples are illustrated using R code including the different packages in R such as R Stats, Caret and so on. Each chapter is a mix of theory and practical examples. By the end of this book you will know all the concepts and pain-points related to regression analysis, and you will be able to implement your learning in your projects. What you will learn Get started with the journey of data science using Simple linear regression Deal with interaction, collinearity and other problems using multiple linear regression Understand diagnostics and what to do if the assumptions fail with proper analysis Load your dataset, treat missing values, and plot relationships with exploratory data analysis Develop a perfect model keeping overfitting, under-fitting, and cross-validation into consideration Deal with classification problems by applying Logistic regression Explore other regression techniques – Decision trees, Bagging, and Boosting techniques Learn by getting it all in action with the help of a real world case study. Who this book is for This book is intended for budding data scientists and data analysts who want to implement regression analysis techniques using R. If you are interested in statistics, data science, machine learning and wants to get an easy introduction to the topic, then this book is what you need! Basic understanding of statistics and math will help you to get the most out of the book. Some programming experience with R will also be helpful

Predictive Analytics using R

Author: Jeffrey Strickland

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2015-01-16

Total Pages: 554

ISBN-13: 131284101X

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This book is about predictive analytics. Yet, each chapter could easily be handled by an entire volume of its own. So one might think of this a survey of predictive modeling. A predictive model is a statistical model or machine learning model used to predict future behavior based on past behavior. In order to use this book, one should have a basic understanding of mathematical statistics - it is an advanced book. Some theoretical foundations are laid out but not proven, but references are provided for additional coverage. Every chapter culminates in an example using R. R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. You may download R, from a preferred CRAN mirror at http: //www.r-project.org/. The book is organized so that statistical models are presented first (hopefully in a logical order), followed by machine learning models, and then applications: uplift modeling and time series. One could use this a textbook with problem solving in R-but there are no "by-hand" exercises.

Linear Models with R, Second Edition

Author: Julian J. Faraway

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2014-07-01

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 1439887330

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A Hands-On Way to Learning Data Analysis Part of the core of statistics, linear models are used to make predictions and explain the relationship between the response and the predictors. Understanding linear models is crucial to a broader competence in the practice of statistics. Linear Models with R, Second Edition explains how to use linear models in physical science, engineering, social science, and business applications. The book incorporates several improvements that reflect how the world of R has greatly expanded since the publication of the first edition. New to the Second Edition Reorganized material on interpreting linear models, which distinguishes the main applications of prediction and explanation and introduces elementary notions of causality Additional topics, including QR decomposition, splines, additive models, Lasso, multiple imputation, and false discovery rates Extensive use of the ggplot2 graphics package in addition to base graphics Like its widely praised, best-selling predecessor, this edition combines statistics and R to seamlessly give a coherent exposition of the practice of linear modeling. The text offers up-to-date insight on essential data analysis topics, from estimation, inference, and prediction to missing data, factorial models, and block designs. Numerous examples illustrate how to apply the different methods using R.

An Introduction to the Advanced Theory and Practice of Nonparametric Econometrics

Author: Jeffrey S. Racine

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2019-06-27

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13: 1108757286

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Interest in nonparametric methodology has grown considerably over the past few decades, stemming in part from vast improvements in computer hardware and the availability of new software that allows practitioners to take full advantage of these numerically intensive methods. This book is written for advanced undergraduate students, intermediate graduate students, and faculty, and provides a complete teaching and learning course at a more accessible level of theoretical rigor than Racine's earlier book co-authored with Qi Li, Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice (2007). The open source R platform for statistical computing and graphics is used throughout in conjunction with the R package np. Recent developments in reproducible research is emphasized throughout with appendices devoted to helping the reader get up to speed with R, R Markdown, TeX and Git.