Lanterna Rally

Author: Andrew Monaghan

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 9781784131333

This paper addresses Russia's mobilization. It outlines how Moscow sees a world of increasing instability and competition. It considers how the Russian leadership is responding to these concerns, and reflects on what appears to be a series of measures designed to prepare Russia to face potential conflict, even war. These are in effect emergency measures, since the Russian leadership is well aware that war is a test of society and that, despite the recent military experience gained in Ukraine and Syria, Russia is not ready for this test. Threats are multiplying, while Russia's system is often dysfunctional. But what does Russian state mobilization actually mean? How is it manifested in policy terms? This paper sketches out an understanding of Russian state mobilization, framing its evolution from a traditional 19th- or 20th-century style of 'national' mobilization into a series of measures adapted to the security challenges of the 21st century. It sets out what is meant by Russian state mobilization, including a brief historical overview. It goes on to explore how Moscow sees the world, illustrating the Kremlin's concerns about the presence of an 'arc of crisis' around Russia. Then it looks at specific features of Russian state mobilization, particularly at the security and military aspects of what are in effect efforts to move the country on to a permanent war footing. The paper concludes by assessing the progress to date of mobilization overall, and by considering the implications for Western thinking on Russia -- in particular, mobilization's relevance to understandings of likely Russian trajectories in the next two to three years.