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Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections

Author: Francesco Grigoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-12-07

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1475559348

We propose a stress testing framework of credit risk, which analyzes macro-financial linkages, generates consistent forecasts of macro-financial variables, and projects non-performing loans (NPL) on the basis of such forecasts. Economic contractions are generally associated with increases in NPL. However, despite the common assumption used in the empirical literature of homogeneous impact across banks, the strength of this relationship is often bank-specific, and imposing homogeneity may lead to over or underestimating the resilience of the financial system to macroeconomic woes. Our approach accounts for banks’ heterogeneous reaction to macro-financial shocks in a dynamic context and potential cross-sectional dependence across banks caused by common shocks. An application to Ecuador suggests that substantial heterogeneity is present and that this should be taken into account when trying to anticipate inflections in the quality of portfolio.

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

Author: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-10-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1455208892

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According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

Economic Recovery After COVID-19

Author: Alina Mihaela Dima

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-11-30

Total Pages: 325

ISBN-13: 3030866416

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These proceedings constitute a selection of best papers from the 3rd International Conference on Economics and Social Sciences, Innovative Models to Revive the Global Economy, ICESS 2020, held in Bucharest, Romania, in October 2020. This book is a collection of research findings and perspectives related to recent economic challenges determined by the global crisis due to COVID 19, led by the set of improvements and changes in the economic, societal, and technological structures and processes towards the effort of reaching the sustainability goals. During a crisis, countries, and businesses must respond promptly to ensure survival. They need to rethink social contracts, redefine work and consumption, mobilize resources at speed and scale, and at the same time rethink patterns from global to local. The innovative models presented in this book aim to ensure simultaneous economic development, social development, and environmental protection, to achieve a higher quality of life for all people, and protect all living beings and the planet.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-12-30

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13: 1475567081

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The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.

Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Author: Cheikh A. Gueye

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-17

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1498317790

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This paper studies the impact of declining oil prices on banks in sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries. Results indicate that banks respond differently to an oil shock depending on their ownership: (i) domestic banks are the most adversely impacted and experience a deterioration in asset quality and liquidity; (ii) foreign-owned banks are the most resilient as they are able to improve asset quality and attract deposits but at the same time, they decelerate credit growth; in contrast, (iii) Pan-African Banks help stabilize overall credit but large banks in that segment experience reduced asset quality. These differentiated results suggest a tradeoff between maintaining credit growth and safeguarding financial stability in an oil slump which could be addressed by both micro- and macroprudential policies.

Ecuador

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-20

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13: 1498303676

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This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.

Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2021-12-01

Total Pages: 262

ISBN-13: 9292691163

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High and persistent levels of nonperforming loans (NPLs) have featured prominently in recent financial crises. This book traces NPL trends during and after crises, examines the economic impact of high NPLs, and compares the effectiveness of NPL resolution strategies across economies in Asia and Europe. The book distills important lessons from the experiences of economies using case studies and empirical investigation of ways to resolve NPLs. These findings can be invaluable in charting a course through the financial and economic fallout of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic to recovery and sustained financial stability in Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-23

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1484361490

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This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author: Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt

Author: Inessa Love

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-12-30

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1484338316

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This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993-2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital inflows and growth in gross domestic product improves banks’ loan portfolio quality, and that the effect is fairly similar in magnitude using the multivariate and panel vector autoregressive frameworks. In contrast, higher lending rates may lead to adverse selection problems and hence to a drop in portfolio quality. The paper also reports that a larger market share of foreign banks in the industry improves loan quality.