Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment PDF

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2017-08-29

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 1400888816

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Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Judgment

Judgment PDF

Author: Noel M. Tichy

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2007-11-08

Total Pages: 412

ISBN-13: 1101216549

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“With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus.

The Anatomy of Judgement

The Anatomy of Judgement PDF

Author: Minnie Louie Johnson Abercrombie

Publisher: Free Assn Books

Published: 1989

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 9781853431067

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The author is concerned with the origin and development of judgment, the relation between inner and outer worlds, the selective and interpretative nature of perception and the role of context or total situation. The book is a reminder of the emotional basis of learning.

Judgment Detox

Judgment Detox PDF

Author: Gabrielle Bernstein

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2018-01-02

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 1501168991

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“Gabrielle is the real thing. I respect her work immensely.” —Dr. Wayne Dyer “A new role model.” —The New York Times “I came to one of Bernstein’s monthly lectures and got my first look at the woman I’d one day unabashedly refer to as ‘my guru.’” —Elle From #1 New York Times bestselling author Gabrielle Bernstein comes a clear, proactive, step-by-step process to release the beliefs that hold you back from living a better life. This six-step practice offers many promises. Petty resentments will disappear, compassion will replace attack, the energy of resistance will transform into freedom and you’ll feel more peace and happiness than you’ve ever known. I can testify to these results because I’ve lived them. I’ve never felt more freedom and joy than I have when writing and practicing these steps. My commitment to healing my own relationship to judgment has changed my life in profound ways. My awareness of my judgment has helped me become a more mindful and conscious person. My willingness to heal these perceptions has set me free. I have been able to let go of resentments and jealousies, I can face pain with curiosity and love, and I forgive others and myself much more easily. Best of all, I have a healthy relationship to judgment so that I can witness when it shows up and I can use these steps to quickly return to love. The Judgment Detox is an interactive six-step process that calls on spiritual principles from the text A Course in Miracles, Kundalini yoga, the Emotional Freedom Technique (aka Tapping), meditation, prayer and metaphysical teachings. I’ve demystified these principles to make them easy to commit to and apply in your daily life. Each lesson builds upon the next to support true healing. When you commit to following the process and become willing to let go, judgment, pain and suffering will begin to dissolve. And the miracles will keep coming. Once you begin to feel better you start to release your resistance to love. The more you practice these steps, the more love enters into your consciousness and into your energetic vibration. When you’re in harmony with love, you receive more of what you want. Your energy attracts its likeness. So when you shift your energy from defensive judgment to free-flowing love your life gets awesome. You’ll attract exactly what you need, your relationships will heal, your health will improve and you’ll feel safer and more secure. One loving thought at a time creates a miracle. Follow these steps to clear all blocks, spread more love and live a miraculous life.

Judgment of Paris

Judgment of Paris PDF

Author: George M. Taber

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2006-11-21

Total Pages: 347

ISBN-13: 1416547894

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The only reporter present at the mythic Paris Tasting of 1976 for the first time introduces the eccentric American winemakers and records the tremendous aftershocks of this historic event that changed forever the world of wine. The Paris Tasting of 1976 will forever be remembered as the landmark event that transformed the wine industry. At this legendary contest—a blind tasting—a panel of top French wine experts shocked the industry by choosing unknown California wines over France’s best. George M. Taber, the only reporter present, recounts this seminal contest and its far-reaching effects, focusing on three gifted unknowns behind the winning wines: a college lecturer, a real estate lawyer, and a Yugoslavian immigrant. With unique access to the main players and a contagious passion for his subject, Taber renders this historic event and its tremendous aftershocks—repositioning the industry and sparking a golden age for viticulture across the globe. With an eclectic cast of characters and magnificent settings, Judgment of Paris is an illuminating tale and a story of the entrepreneurial spirit of the new world conquering the old.

Fatal Judgment

Fatal Judgment PDF

Author: Irene Hannon

Publisher: Revell

Published: 2011-01-01

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780800734565

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U.S. Marshal Jake Taylor has seen plenty of action during his years in law enforcement. But he'd rather go back to Iraq than face his next assignment: protection detail for federal judge Liz Michaels. His feelings toward Liz haven't warmed in the five years since she lost her husband--and Jake's best friend--to possible suicide. How can Jake be expected to care for the coldhearted workaholic who drove his friend to despair? As the danger mounts and Jake gets to know Liz better, his feelings slowly start to change. When it becomes clear that an unknown enemy may want her dead, the stakes are raised. Because now both her life--and his heart--are in mortal danger. Full of the suspense and romance Irene Hannon's fans have come to love, Fatal Judgment is a thrilling story that will keep readers turning the pages late into the night.

Kant's 'Critique of Aesthetic Judgement'

Kant's 'Critique of Aesthetic Judgement' PDF

Author: Fiona Hughes

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

Published: 2009-11-07

Total Pages: 205

ISBN-13: 144114725X

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Kant's Critique of Judgment is one of the most important works in the history of philosophy. It is a classic text, in which Kant elucidates his aesthetic theory, and is an important piece of philosophical writing. In Kant's 'Critique of Judgment': A Reader's Guide, Fiona Hughes offers a clear and thorough account of this key philosophical work. The book offers a detailed review of the key themes and a lucid commentary that will enable readers to rapidly navigate the text. Concentrating on Kant's Critique of Aesthetic Judgment, the first and most commonly read part of this critique, Hughes explores the complex and important ideas inherent in the text and provides a cogent survey of the reception and influence of Kant's work. Geared towards the specific requirements of undergraduate students, this is the ideal companion to study of this most influential of texts.

The Grounds of Ethical Judgement

The Grounds of Ethical Judgement PDF

Author: Christian Illies

Publisher: Clarendon Press

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 9780198238324

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Transcendental arguments have gained a lot of attention since the 1990s, mainly in the field of theoretical reason. Christian Illies argues that transcendental arguments have great potential in ethics, as they promise rational justification of normative judgements.

Social Judgement Theory

Social Judgement Theory PDF

Author: Michael E. Doherty

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 148

ISBN-13: 9780863779510

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This special issue of "Thinking and Reasoning" is devoted to social judgement theory SJT, which has its origins in Egon Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism.; The first paper discusses the history and theory of SJT and explores Hammond's distinction between coherence and correspondence criteria. The next paper presents the major methodological approaches of SJT, with a focus on the Lens Model. Four applications follow, including an exploration of the medical applications of SJT.