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Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models

Author: Thomas, Timothy S.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-02-27

Total Pages: 97

ISBN-13:

In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.

The Climate-Smart Agriculture Papers

Author: Todd S. Rosenstock

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-11-28

Total Pages: 321

ISBN-13: 3319927981

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This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This volume shares new data relating to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), with emphasis on experiences in Eastern and Southern Africa. The book is a collection of research by authors from over 30 institutions, spanning the public and private sectors, with specific knowledge on agricultural development in the region discussed. The material is assembled to answer key questions on the following five topic areas: (1) Climate impacts: What are the most significant current and near future climate risks undermining smallholder livelihoods? (2) Varieties: How can climate-smart varieties be delivered quickly and cost-effectively to smallholders? (3) Farm management: What are key lessons on the contributions from soil and water management to climate risk reduction and how should interventions be prioritized? (4) Value chains: How can climate risks to supply and value chains be reduced? and (5) Scaling up: How can most promising climate risks reduction strategies be quickly scaled up and what are critical success factors? Readers who will be interested in this book include students, policy makers, and researchers studying climate change impacts on agriculture and agricultural sustainability.

Climate Change and Health

Author: Walter Leal Filho

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-03-24

Total Pages: 532

ISBN-13: 3319246607

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A major objective of this volume is to create and share knowledge about the socio-economic, political and cultural dimensions of climate change. The authors analyze the effects of climate change on the social and environmental determinants of the health and well-being of communities (i.e. poverty, clean air, safe drinking water, food supplies) and on extreme events such as floods and hurricanes. The book covers topics such as the social and political dimensions of the ebola response, inequalities in urban migrant communities, as well as water-related health effects of climate change. The contributors recommend political and social-cultural strategies for mitigate, adapt and prevent the impacts of climate change to human and environmental health. The book will be of interest to scholars and practitioners interested in new methods and tools to reduce risks and to increase health resilience to climate change.

The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture

Author: David J. Maddison

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States

Author: Peter Backlund

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2009-05

Total Pages: 250

ISBN-13: 143791098X

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This report by the Nat. Science and Tech. Council¿s U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is part of a series of 21 reports aimed at providing current assessments of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. These reports are also intended to help the CCSP develop future program research priorities. The CCSP¿s guiding vision is to provide the Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge needed to manage the risks and capture the opportunities associated with climate and related environmental changes. This report assesses the effects of climate change on U.S. land resources, water resources, agriculture, and biodiversity. It was developed with broad scientific input. Illus.

Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change

Author: Alexander Lotsch

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13:

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The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems.

East African Agriculture and Climate Change

Author: Michael Waithaka

Publisher:

Published: 2013-08-02

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9780896298293

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