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International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Author: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-06-17

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13:

While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

Author: Diego A. Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-12-18

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 9781513564746

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World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains.

The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination

Author: Philipp Engler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-11-13

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 9781513560182

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Voluntary and government-mandated lockdowns in response to COVID-19 have caused causing drastic reductions in economic activity around the world. We present a parsimonious two-country-SIR model with some degree of substitutability between home and foreign goods, and show that trading partners’ asynchronous entries into the global pandemic induce mutual welfare gains from trade. Those gains are realized through exchange rate adjustments that cause a temporary reallocation of production towards the economy with the lowest infection rate at any point in time. We show that international cooperation over containment policies that aim at optimizing global welfare further enhances the ability of countries to exploit trade opportunities to contain the spread of the pandemic. We characterize the Nash game of strategic choices of containment policies as a prisoners’ dilemma.

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Author: Mr. Philip Barrett

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-07-30

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 1513587900

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Trade and Development

Author: United Nations Publications

Publisher:

Published: 2021-03-31

Total Pages: 115

ISBN-13: 9789211130003

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The report fosters understanding of the impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on trade and development and reflects on actions that can propel us to the future we want. It provides up-to-date data and analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on trade and development; identifies sustained trends to characterize the "new normal"; and provides policy recommendations to build a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable future.

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets

Author: Cem Çakmaklı

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

Navigating COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific

Author: Bambang Susantono

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2020-09-01

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13: 9292623567

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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed unparalleled challenges. At the same time, it offers a window to rethink Asia’s most fundamental development policies and strategies to address inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and environmental challenges. This publication gathers blogs and short policy pieces contributed by ADB staff and experts in an attempt to tackle immediate challenges and prepare for what may lie beyond the horizon. It covers a broad range of development challenges and highlights the crucial role of rapid adoption of digital technologies, adequate supply of quality infrastructure, disaster risk management, and strengthening regional cooperation for a resilient and sustainable future by shaping post-pandemic conditions.

Global Value Chain Development Report 2021

Author: Banque asiatique de développement

Publisher:

Published: 2022-01-25

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789287054296

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A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.

The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

Author: Mr. Pragyan Deb

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-19

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1589063767

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This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Deep Integration, Global Firms, and Technology Spillovers

Author: Naoto Jinji

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 191

ISBN-13: 9811652104

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This open access book explores the impact of deep regional economic integration on spillovers of knowledge and technology across countries. Deep integration through signing deep regional trade agreements (DRTAs), which cover various policy areas in addition to tariff reductions, may or may not facilitate technology spillovers among their signatories. To understand the mechanism of the impact of deep integration on technology spillovers, this book starts by analyzing the behavior of global firms. Factors that affect global firms' activities, such as export, foreign direct investment (FDI), offshore outsourcing, are examined. Micro data on Japanese firms are employed for the analysis. Then, the relationships between bilateral trade patterns and technology spillovers and between types of FDI and technology spillovers are investigated in detail. Patent citation data are used to measure technology spillovers. Finally, the impact of DRTAs on international technology spillovers is analyzed. This book is highly recommended to readers who are interested in the effects of deep regional integration, including academic scholars, policymakers, and graduate students. [Resumen de la editorial]