Lanterna Rally

Author: Geoffrey M. Heal

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

Increasing returns is the source of some of the most powerful metaphors and intuitions in economics. Foremost among them are Adam Smith's statement that the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market and his discussion of the relationship between scale and economies of specialization in a pin factory. There is a weakness, strictly an error, in Adam Smith's analysis. Two phenomena that he grouped together and saw as integral to economic progress are in fact inconsistent. These are increasing returns with the consequent gains from specialization and the efficiency of the invisible hand. We now know that a society cannot have both, at least if one interprets the efficiency of the invisible hand as the Pareto efficiency of the competitive equilibrium, our only rigorous interpretation. This paper reviews the implications of increasing returns for several areas of economics: resource allocation and welfare economics; the micro foundations of macroeconomics; product variety and imperfect competition; information and information technology; economic growth; international trade. These cover the fields in which increasing returns cause departures from the results otherwise available. These departures are rather significant. Recognizing increasing returns affects the possibility of market equilibrium, can introduce sticky prices, causes economies to lock-in to inefficient technologies and introduce path-dependence, affects the possibility of continuing growth, produces hard problems for regulators, and changes our conception of the effects of international trade. All in all, increasing returns can change quite radically our view of how the economy operates. They make the economy seem more complicated and pose a challenge to our vision of a benign and powerful invisible hand.