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Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France

Author: Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-12-02

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1484331753

How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.

Incorporating Macro-financial Linkages Into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices

Author: Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models ould have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.

Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France

Author: Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-12-01

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 148433096X

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Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections

Author: Francesco Grigoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-12-07

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1475559380

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We propose a stress testing framework of credit risk, which analyzes macro-financial linkages, generate consistent forecasts of macro-financial variables, and projects NPL on the basis of such forecasts. Economic contractions are generally associated with increases in non-performing loans (NPL). However, despite the common assumption used in the empirical literature of homogenous impact across banks, the strength of this relationship is often bank-specific, and imposing homogeneity may lead to over or underestimating the resilience of the financial system to macroeconomic woes. Our approach accounts for banks’ heterogeneous reaction to macro-financial shocks in a dynamic context and potential cross-sectional dependence across banks caused by common shocks. An application to Ecuador suggests that substantial heterogeneity is present and that this should be taken into account when trying to anticipate inflections in the quality of portfolio.

France

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-09-21

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 148432031X

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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery is picking up in France, with real GDP growth projected to reach 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018. Growth is primarily driven by buoyant corporate investment, a rebound in residential construction, and solid consumer demand. Net exports, by contrast, have been a drag on growth, and France’s external position is assessed to be weaker than implied by economic fundamentals. Private sector job creation has begun to accelerate moderately and the unemployment rate has begun to recede moderately from its 10 percent post-crisis mark. Medium-term prospects will critically depend on the implementation of the reform agenda.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-23

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1484361490

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This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

Seychelles

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-02

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1498323499

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Selected Issues

Mauritius

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-04-29

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1498312004

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Selected Issue

Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets

Author: Otaviano Canuto

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2013-10-29

Total Pages: 307

ISBN-13: 1464800030

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This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

Mauritius

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-04-29

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1498311997

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This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.