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How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)

Author: Tohid Atashbar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-08-11

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

In this study we introduce and apply a set of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques to analyze multi-dimensional fragility-related data. Our analysis of the fragility data collected by the OECD for its States of Fragility index showed that the use of such techniques could provide further insights into the non-linear relationships and diverse drivers of state fragility, highlighting the importance of a nuanced and context-specific approach to understanding and addressing this multi-aspect issue. We also applied the methodology used in this paper to South Sudan, one of the most fragile countries in the world to analyze the dynamics behind the different aspects of fragility over time. The results could be used to improve the Fund’s country engagement strategy (CES) and efforts at the country.

Author:

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published:

Total Pages: 108

ISBN-13:

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Artificial Intelligence and Its Contexts

Author: Anna Visvizi

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-11-27

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 3030889726

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This book offers a comprehensive approach to the question of how artificial intelligence (AI) impacts politics, economy, and the society today. In this view, it is quintessential for understanding the complex nature of AI and its role in today’s world. The book has been divided into three parts. Part one is devoted to the question of how AI will be used for security and defense purposes, including combat in war zones. Part two looks at the value added of AI and machine learning for decision-making in the fields of politics and business. Part three consists of case studies—covering the EU, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, and Poland—that discuss how AI is being used in the realms of politics, security and defense. The discussion in the book opens with the question of the nature of AI, as well as of ethics and the use of AI in combat. Subsequently, the argument covers issues as diverse as the militarization of AI, the use of AI in strategic studies and military strategy design. These topics are followed by an insight into AI and strategic communication (StratCom), including disinformation, as well as into AI and finance. The case-studies included in part 3 of the book offer a captivating overview of how AI is being employed to stimulate growth and development, to promote data- and evidence-driven policy-making, to enable efficient and inclusive digital transformation and other related issues. Written by academics and practitioners in an academically sound, yet approachable manner, this volume queries issues and topics that form the thrust of processes that transform world politics, economics and society. As such, this volume will serve as the primer for students, researchers, lectures and other professionals who seek to understand and engage with the variety of issues AI implicates.

At the Speed of Irrelevance

Author: Al Naqvi

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2022-07-26

Total Pages: 262

ISBN-13: 1119861284

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Get the inside story of American Artificial Intelligence (AI) failure and fall: Learn how to reassume American AI leadership and win against China On the eve of the Sino-American great power competition General Mattis challenged America to move forward at the speed of relevance. To compete effectively America needed to excel in its AI capacity. The call fell on deaf ears - and years later the nation found itself sliding towards a state of irrelevance on the global stage. A series of blunders contributed to what President Biden calls American AI's "failing and falling behind." This is the story of American AI's fall from grace. Capturing the live moments of American excitement and mastery of AI to the tragedy of ending up behind China, the authors give a behind the scenes account of what transpired. Get an inside view on who dropped the ball at a time when America needed its best leadership. As the mystery unravels, it shows the great misses and deceptions, colossal mistakes, policy failures, and negligence that cost America its leadership position. This story could become the story of America’s own decline and fall. But there is hope. In the past America has shown resilience to bounce back from the agony of defeat to win in the long run. This book gives a path to rebuild American AI and secure such a victory. Whether you are a business leader or a policy analyst, a supply chain expert or an academic, a congressmember or an agency head At the Speed of Irrelevance: How America Blew Its AI Leadership Position and How to Regain It will change your thinking about your responsibility to your firms, agencies, and the country. This will be the most timely and patriotic book you will ever read.

Artificial Intelligence and Its Contexts

Author: Anna Visvizi

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9783030889739

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This book offers a comprehensive approach to the question of how artificial intelligence (AI) impacts politics, economy, and the society today. In this view, it is quintessential for understanding the complex nature of AI and its role in today's world. The book has been divided into three parts. Part one is devoted to the question of how AI will be used for security and defense purposes, including combat in war zones. Part two looks at the value added of AI and machine learning for decision-making in the fields of politics and business. Part three consists of case studies-covering the EU, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, and Poland-that discuss how AI is being used in the realms of politics, security and defense. The discussion in the book opens with the question of the nature of AI, as well as of ethics and the use of AI in combat. Subsequently, the argument covers issues as diverse as the militarization of AI, the use of AI in strategic studies and military strategy design. These topics are followed by an insight into AI and strategic communication (StratCom), including disinformation, as well as into AI and finance. The case-studies included in part 3 of the book offer a captivating overview of how AI is being employed to stimulate growth and development, to promote data- and evidence-driven policy-making, to enable efficient and inclusive digital transformation and other related issues. Written by academics and practitioners in an academically sound, yet approachable manner, this volume queries issues and topics that form the thrust of processes that transform world politics, economics and society. As such, this volume will serve as the primer for students, researchers, lectures and other professionals who seek to understand and engage with the variety of issues AI implicates.

Investigating AI Readiness in the Maltese Public Administration

Author: Marvic Sciberras

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-01-27

Total Pages: 197

ISBN-13: 3031199006

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The book presents a unique study on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) readiness of public administrations focusing on the Maltese public administration as a case study. This was conducted following the launch of the Malta AI National Strategy in 2019. Since the Maltese public administration is the driving force behind the integration of AI solutions nationwide, the research is deemed necessary to understand whether the public workforce itself is ready to face the oncoming AI revolution. The researchers applied a mixed-methods approach to gain insight and a broader perspective of the status quo concerning AI adoption. Important considerations that stem from this study include the need for increased AI knowledge among public administrators since the majority of respondents reported a lack of awareness of AI technologies and their deployment. Understanding AI-related advantages must be accompanied by a robust instructional effort at all levels of education. It was unanimously agreed that the early inclusion of AI-related courses in the Maltese educational system will aid in developing a future AI-savvy workforce. Furthermore, upskilling and reskilling the public officers will facilitate knowledgeable human capital and proficiencies required to effectively integrate AI solutions within society. The study concludes by recommending several critical reforms within governments that will improve the AI-readiness factor of any Public Administration.

The Very Long Game

Author: Heiko Borchert

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2024-07-27

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9783031586484

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This open access book is the outcome of a unique multinational effort organized by the Hamburg-based Defense AI Observatory (DAIO) to portray the current state of affairs regarding the use of artificial intelligence (AI) by armed forces around the world. The contributions span a diverse range of geostrategic contexts by providing in-depth case studies on Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK, and the United States. The book does not speculate about the future implications of AI on armed forces, but rather discusses how armed forces are currently exploring the potential of this emerging technology. By adopting a uniform analytical framework, each case study discusses how armed forces view defense AI; how they are developing AI-enhanced solutions, adapting existing structures and processes, and funding their defense AI endeavors; to what extent defense AI is already fielded and operated; and how soldiers and officers are being trained to work with AI.

Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility

Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-06

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1513573683

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High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.

Warfare in a Fragile World

Author: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Publisher:

Published: 1980

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13:

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"Among the crucial problems that confront mankind today are those associated with a degraded environment. This book examines the extent to which warfare and other military activities contribute to such degradation. The military capability to damage the environment and to cause ecological disruption has escalated, and there is no sign that the level of conflict in the world is decreasing. The military use and abuse of each of the several major global habitats -- temperate, tropical, desert, arctic, insular, and oceanic -- are evalusated separately in the light of the civil use and abuse of that habitat"--Dust jacket.

Keeping Watch

Author: A. Walter Dorn

Publisher: UN

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789280811988

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Knowledge is power. In the hands of UN peacekeepers, it can be a power for peace. Lacking knowledge, peacekeepers often find themselves powerless in the field, unable to protect themselves and others. The United Nations owes it to the world and to its peacekeepers to utilize all available tools to make its monitoring and surveillance work more effective. "Keeping Watch" explains how technologies can increase the range, effectiveness, and accuracy of UN observation. Satellites, aircraft, and ground sensors enable wider coverage of many areas, over longer periods of time, while decreasing intrusiveness. These devices can transmit and record imagery for wider dissemination and further analysis, and as evidence in human rights cases and tribunals. They also allow observation at a safe distance from dangerous areas, especially in advance of UN patrols, humanitarian convoys, or robust forces. While sensor technologies have been increasing exponentially in performance while decreasing rapidly in price, however, the United Nations continues to use technologies from the 1980s. This book identifies potential problems and pitfalls with modern technologies and the challenges to incorporate them into the UN system. The few cases of technologies effectively harnessed in the field are examined, and creative recommendations are offered to overcome the institutional inertia and widespread misunderstandings about how technology can complement human initiative in the quest for peace in war-torn lands. ""Walter Dorn is one of the most thoughtful and knowledgeable analysts of peacekeeping and security policy, and this book makes an important contribution to a field that needs far more public discussion.""--The Hon. Bob Rae, MP for Toronto Centre and Liberal Foreign Affairs critic