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Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-06-06

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

This publication introduces four methods to forecast the global surface temperature over land and ocean (global warming). The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions. Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2. The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C). According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).

Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-06

Total Pages: 4

ISBN-13:

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The dataset includes results of Global Warming forecast using four methods. The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions. Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2. The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C). According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).

CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-30

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13:

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This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world’s global CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 2020-2100. The CO2 emissions BAU forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]. According to this publication, the CO2 emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020 to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase. The GDP forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to this calculation, the world GDP will change from 126.3 MM$/y in 2020 to 728.1 MM$/y in 2100, a 476% increase. CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year by the GDP in the same year. According to the forecast, the world 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP Cp$ in 2020 will decrease by 64% in 2100 to 0.000096 tCO2/$GDP. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions forecast, CO2 emissions per GDP

Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per Capita to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-30

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13:

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The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.5°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 2,359,526 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) annually by 17%. The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.7°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 2,085,593 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) annually by 7.85%. The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 2.0°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 1,683,503 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) annually by 4.46%. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per capita, Global Warming forecast

Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-30

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13:

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The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.5°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 2,353,587 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 18%. The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.7°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 2,086,161 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 9.34%. The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 2.0°C Global Warming limit in 2100 is 1,684,038 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 5.91%. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per GDP, GDP per capita, Global Warming forecast

Global Warming Acceleration

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-06-22

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

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This publication analyzes changes of global warming rates (GWR) expressed in Centigrade per year (°C/y) and introduces a parameter “global warming acceleration” (GWA) expressed in Centigrade per year per year (°C/y2). GWA may be applied for prediction of the GWR for the next decade. If the current decrease of GWA will continue for the next 11 years, Global Warming Rate will increase from the current +0.017 °C/y to +0.019 °C/y, for land+ocean.

CO2 Emissions per GDP

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-30

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13:

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This work analyzes CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 1990-2020. The dataset includes 192 countries, 99.1% of the population of the world, 99.4% of the world GDP and 99.6% of global CO2 emissions without international transport. The GDP per capita of the countries included in this work was in 2020 16,247$/cap compared to the world average 16,206$/cap. The world average Cp$ was 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP in 2020, 38% below the 1990 level. 62 countries increased their Cp$ between 1990 and 2020, increasing Global Warming by 0.057°C. CO2 emissions of 44 countries were above the world average Cp$ in the period 1990-2020. The emissions above the world average were 9% of global CO2 emissions in this period, which increased Global Warming by 0.055°C. 10 countries above the world average of Cp$ (2020) with the highest change in the cumulative CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020, caused 44% of Global Warming in this period, +0.281°C. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per GDP

Climate Change

Author: The Royal Society

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2014-02-26

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 0309302021

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Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.

Dataset CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100

Author: Joseph Nowarski

Publisher: Joseph Nowarski

Published: 2022-10-30

Total Pages: 3

ISBN-13:

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The dataset includes Business as Usual (BAU) forecast of world global CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) for 2020-2100. The CO2 emission forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [6]. According to this publication, the CO2 emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020 to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase. The GDP forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to this calculation, the world GDP will change from 126.3 MM$/y in 2020 to 728.1 MM$/y in 2100, a 476% increase. CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year by the GDP in the same year. The world 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP Cp$ in 2020 will decrease by 64% in 2100 to 0.000096 tCO2/$GDP.

Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation

Author: Zekâi Şen

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2015-08-03

Total Pages: 484

ISBN-13: 0128024224

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Applied Drought Modelling, Prediction, and Mitigation provides a practical guide to new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions. The modeling procedures covered by the book include recent advancements in regional drought extent, coverage, intensity, and water deficit predictions, which are increasingly significant given current climate change impacts on water resources. Each modeling procedure is explained theoretically prior to the mathematical derivation, and includes book examples, exercises, and case studies that supplement the applied and practical material, thus making the approaches accessible and applicable to the reader. Presents new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions Includes online modeling tools to help readers quickly solve drought related problems Presents methodologies, including drought features (duration, intensity, and magnitude) at any desired risk level Include case studies from arid and semi-arid regions