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Published: 2003
Total Pages: 122
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In their annual debate about the defense budget, Members of Congress focus primarily on whether the President's budget request will meet the military's immediate spending needs. But programs to develop weapon systems often run for a decade or more before those systems are fielded, and other policy decisions have long-term implications; thus, decisions made today can influence the size and composition of the nation's armed forces for many years to come. Recognizing the need for a longer view, the Senate Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee requested that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyze the long-term implications of the Administration's current plans for defense. This analysis examines those implications both for budgetary resources and for ages and inventories of weapon systems. In the five years from 1997 to 2002, the annual U.S. defense budget grew from $274 billion to $345 billion. (All dollar amounts in this study represent total obligational authority expressed in 2002 dollars.) The defense program outlined by the Bush Administration for fiscal year 2003 and the following four years (the 2003 Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP) anticipates additional growth, with the defense budget averaging $387 billion over the 2003-2007 period and reaching $408 billion in 2007. If that program continued as currently envisioned, the demand for defense resources would continue to increase through 2012, CBO projects, and would average $428 billion a year between 2008 and 2020. Costs for day-to-day operations (running units, maintaining equipment, and providing pay and benefits to military personnel) would grow from $222 billion in 2002 to more than $280 billion by 2020. Demands for investment resources (primarily to develop and purchase new equipment) would rise from $ 110 billion in 2002 to $164 billion in 2012 and then decline to about $134 billion by 2020.