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Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

Author: Ms.Nan Geng

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-13

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484367626

House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.

Global House Price Fluctuations

Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-06

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1475591608

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We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Are Taxes Drivers of House Prices?

Author: Yeo Joon Yoon

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9788932200125

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Three Cycles

Author: Alain N. Kabundi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-10-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451873786

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We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the U.S. credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Author: Andrea Deghi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-01-17

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1513525832

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.

Global House Price Fluctuations

Author: Hideaki Hirata

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across eighteen advanced economies over the past forty years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Denmark

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-20

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13: 1484362675

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OECD Economic Surveys: Austria 2019

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2019-11-13

Total Pages: 138

ISBN-13: 9264683585

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Austrian citizens enjoy high living standards, well-being and social cohesion. Until the ongoing global slowdown, robust employment growth in the private sector kept domestic demand and investment remarkably robust. More people moved into work and inward migration has been strong. At the same time, new challenges related to social cohesion challenges have emerged, as increased skill differences in the population and diverging productivity performance across firms have generated a higher range of outcomes for job quality and market wages than in the past. Myriad entrepreneurial firms across all regions should better adapt to new megatrends of ageing, globalisation and digitalisation.

Sweden

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-27

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13: 1498305296

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This Article IV Consultation highlights that Sweden’s growth is expected to slow in 2019, with material downside risks from the global economy and domestic demand. A data-dependent approach to monetary policy is appropriate. Although underlying inflation is expected to rise gradually, uncertainties around this outlook have widened. Automatic fiscal stabilizers should operate fully, and the surplus should decline to the new medium-term target by 2020. The fiscal surplus is estimated to have declined to just under 1 percent of GDP in 2018. The report also discussed that labor market reforms should enhance employment of migrants and the low skilled. The social partners should update wage formation to reflect structural changes in the Swedish economy. Reforms to improve housing affordability are needed even as macroprudential measures help contain household debt vulnerabilities. The tightening of amortization requirements is well-targeted, and its effectiveness should be monitored. Plans to eliminate rent controls on new construction should be complemented by phasing out controls on existing apartments.

Norway

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-17

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1484377125

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