Lanterna Rally

Author: Randy Schnepf

Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub

Published: 2012-10-23

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 9781480174030

According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income—a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being—is forecast at a record $122.2 billion in 2012, up 3.7% from last year's record. Record gross revenues from crop sales (forecast at $222.1 billion), coupled with record revenues (forecast at $34.1 billion) from farm-related income—a category that includes crop insurance indemnity payments as well as income from custom work, machine hire, etc.—pushed total gross cash income to a record $433.6 billion (up 5.5%). This more than offset flat revenues from livestock markets ($165.8 billion), and a 6.6% increase in input costs (forecast at $294.2 billion) to account for the record forecast for overall net returns. When measured in cash terms, net cash income in 2012 is also projected record large at $139.3 billion, up 3.4% from last year's record. However, when adjusted for inflation, current farm income forecasts remain well below the peak period of the early 1970s. In addition to record farm income, farm wealth is also at record levels. Farm asset values—which reflect farm investors' and lenders' expectations about long-term profitability of farm-sector investments—are expected to rise nearly 7% in 2012 to a record $2,551 billion for a fifth consecutive year of gains. Farm land cash markets have continued to see gains related to strong crop prices in 2012. Since 2008, farm asset values are up 26% while farm debt has risen by only 8%. As a result, the farm debt-to-asset ratio has declined steadily since 2008 and is expected to fall to the lowest level on record in 2012 at 10.2%. The 2012 outlook for a second year of strong farm income occurs in spite of slow growth in the domestic economy and the most severe and extensive drought in at least 25 years. The ongoing drought is expected to destroy or damage a significant portion of the U.S. corn and soybean crops, with deleterious impacts on all U.S. livestock sectors—cattle, hogs, poultry, and dairy—and with the potential to affect food prices at the retail level. Yet, drought-induced large increases in the value of this year's crops, plus substantial crop insurance indemnity payments, are expected to more than offset rising production expenditures for both crop and livestock activities and generate record farm income. Government farm payments, at $11 billion (up 6%), are expected to remain relatively small in 2012 (second-lowest total since 1997) as high commodity prices shut off payments under the price-contingent marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs. These data suggest a strong financial position in 2012 for the agricultural sector as a whole relative to the rest of the U.S. economy, but with substantial regional variation. In general, the increase in expenses will affect livestock producers more harshly than crop producers. Cash grain farmers in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains are expected to experience a second year of record revenues despite the drought. In contrast, livestock and poultry feeders are experiencing record high feed costs that have narrowed or eliminated profit margins despite record high wholesale and retail prices for their end products. In addition, the severe nationwide drought has limited grazing opportunities and hay production for cattle ranchers in the affected regions and led to substantial herd liquidation. The lingering effects of the drought are expected to spill over into next year, when record-high market prices will likely motivate large feed grain and oilseed plantings. Eventual 2013 agricultural economic well-being will hinge greatly on spring crop planting and summer growing weather, as well as both domestic and international macroeconomic factors including economic growth and consumer demand.