Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention

Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention PDF

Author: Andrew Filardo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-07-29

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

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This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention PDF

Author: Gustavo Adler

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-06-23

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1513514865

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We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.

Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?

Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work? PDF

Author: Kathryn M. Dominguez

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 196

ISBN-13:

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How much impact on exchange rates do central banks have when they buy and sell currencies? According to many analysts, such intervention has no independent impact. This book challenges the conventional wisdom, demonstrating that such intervention can be an effective and extremely important tool for policymakers. Using previously unavailable daily intervention data from the US Federal Reserve and German Bundesbank, the authors show that even "sterilized" intervention -intervention that entails no corresponding changes in monetary policy- has a significant effect. A key element is whether the intervention is known to the public: widespread market awareness of the activity adds substantially to its payoff. Authors Dominguez and Frankel draw implications for intervention policy and its role in international economic policy coordination.

How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must

How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must PDF

Author: Kaushik Basu

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13:

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The paper is about the art of exchange rate management by central banks. It begins by reviewing the diversity of objectives and practices of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. Central banks typically exercise discretion in determining when and to what extent to intervene. Some central banks use publicly declared rules of intervention, with the aim of increasing visibility and strengthening the signaling channel of policy. There is tentative evidence that the volatility of foreign exchange reserves is comparatively lower in emerging market economies where central banks follow some form of rules-based foreign exchange intervention. The paper goes on to argue that when the foreign exchange market includes some large strategic participants, the central bank can achieve superior outcomes if intervention takes the form of a rule, or "schedule," indicating commitments to buying and selling different quantities of foreign currency conditional on the exchange rate. Exchange rate management and reserve management can then be treated as two independent objectives by the central bank. In line with the stylized facts reviewed, this would enable a central bank to pursue exchange rate objectives with minimum reserve changes, or achieve reserve targets with minimum impact on the exchange rate.

How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must

How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must PDF

Author: Kaushik Basu

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13:

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The paper is about the art of exchange rate management by central banks. It begins by reviewing the diversity of objectives and practices of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. Central banks typically exercise discretion in determining when and to what extent to intervene. Some central banks use publicly declared rules of intervention, with the aim of increasing visibility and strengthening the signaling channel of policy. There is tentative evidence that the volatility of foreign exchange reserves is comparatively lower in emerging market economies where central banks follow some form of rules-based foreign exchange intervention. The paper goes on to argue that when the foreign exchange market includes some large strategic participants, the central bank can achieve superior outcomes if intervention takes the form of a rule, or "schedule, " indicating commitments to buying and selling different quantities of foreign currency conditional on the exchange rate. Exchange rate management and reserve management can then be treated as two independent objectives by the central bank. In line with the stylized facts reviewed, this would enable a central bank to pursue exchange rate objectives with minimum reserve changes, or achieve reserve targets with minimum impact on the exchange rate.

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies PDF

Author: Anna Nordstrom

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-11-24

Total Pages: 106

ISBN-13: 1589067967

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This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.

Patterns of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting

Patterns of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting PDF

Author: Gustavo Adler

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1513536451

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The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market economies, with the former group conducting FXI limitedly and broadly symmetrically, while the use of this policy instrument in emerging market countries is pervasive and mostly asymmetric (biased towards purchasing foreign currency, even after taking into account precautionary motives). Within emerging markets, the use of FXI is common both under IT and non-IT regimes. We find no evidence of FXI being used in response to inflation developments, while there is strong evidence that FXI responds to exchange rates, indicating that IT central banks in EMDEs have dual inflation/exchange rate objectives. We also find a higher propensity to overshoot inflation targets in emerging market economies where FXI is more pervasive.

Strained Relations

Strained Relations PDF

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2015-03-02

Total Pages: 453

ISBN-13: 022605151X

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During the twentieth century, foreign-exchange intervention was sometimes used in an attempt to solve the fundamental trilemma of international finance, which holds that countries cannot simultaneously pursue independent monetary policies, stabilize their exchange rates, and benefit from free cross-border financial flows. Drawing on a trove of previously confidential data, Strained Relations reveals the evolution of US policy regarding currency market intervention, and its interaction with monetary policy. The authors consider how foreign-exchange intervention was affected by changing economic and institutional circumstances—most notably the abandonment of the international gold standard—and how political and bureaucratic factors affected this aspect of public policy.

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